The Swamp's "Indiana Tea Leaves"
Jeff Zeleny at The Swamp :
Few places provide a better outlook for the final three months of the congressional campaign than Indiana, where three Republicans are fighting aggressively to keep their seats. The White House and top Republicans are nervously watching, fearful that if they can't win these districts in a state Bush carried with 60 percent of the vote, are prospects for preserving their majority bleak?
"We're working like these three seats are absolutely critical to the control of the House," said Murray Clark, chairman of the Indiana Republican Party.
While [Brad] Ellsworth's reluctance to condemn Bush makes him a bit of an anomaly in a campaign season filled with vitriol, it underscores an attempt by many Democrats to place a gentle distance between themselves and the national party. Just as some Republicans are less than eager to embrace the president, not every Democrat is going for the jugular.
A sidewalk conversation with Ellsworth here on West Main Street, in front of Hunt's Steamer Cafe, illustrates the complexities of the electorate.
"I'm a Republican, but I want to vote for you," said Harold Green, a retired businessman in the town of 2,700 people about 80 miles northeast of Evansville. "People are looking for change."
Indeed, Republicans may have their troubles, but will voters like what they see from the Democrats?
Here in southwest Indiana, Rep. John Hostettler is locked in one of his toughest races since winning his seat in 1994, when Republicans swept to control of Congress for the first time in four decades. His fight with Ellsworth looks so intriguing to Democrats in Washington that they have pledged to invest at least $1.5 million in television ads, which almost certainly will be rivaled by Republicans.
The NRCC has already begun television in Southern Indiana against Ellsworth, and the DCCC has ran a radio ad (criticizing Hostettler on the minimum wage ) as well as two television ads, one questioning why "John Hostettler votes against a bonus for our troops, but finds money to give himself a pay raise" , the other "exposes Republican John Hostettler's vote on mimimum wage."
first television ad in late June called "Protecting."
IN-08: 3Q Reporting
Hostettler Ellsworth
3Q Net Raised 165,252 430,322
3Q Spent 90,894 693,568
PAC (Total) 16,950 144,523
Debts 9,000 0
CoH 269,704 413,464
IN-09: 3Q Reporting
Sodrel Hill
3Q Net Raised 437,053 364,542
3Q Spent 486,720 405,019/h3>
PAC (Total) 219,048 111,200
Debts 251,927 0
CoH 1,072,320 927,402
IN-02: 3Q Reporting
Chocola Donnelly
2Q Net Raised 809,010 551,284
2Q Spent 1,361,584 662,852
PAC (Total) 362,900 153,074
Debts 0 125,400
CoH 1,001,909 333,450
IN-02: 2Q Reporting
Chocola Donnelly
2Q Net Raised 365,863 176,332
2Q Spent 238,236 63,239
PAC (Total) 180,094 69,368
Debts 0 125,400
CoH 1,554,483 435,216
IN-09: 2Q Reporting
Sodrel Hill
2Q Net Raised 462,363 375,954
2Q Spent 169,795 96,065
PAC (Total) 205,303 141,900
Debts 255,427 0
CoH 1,138,747 967,879
IN-08: 2Q Reporting
Hostettler Ellsworth
2Q Net Raised 168,484 354,910
2Q Spent 29,182 211,900
PAC (Total) 46,550 164,552
Debts 9,000 0
CoH 195,146 676,476
IN-09: General Election Matchup
Sodrel (R)
46%
Hill (D)
44%
Undecided
4%
Schansberg
5%
Survey USA / WHAS-TV poll of 538 LVs, conducted 10/31-11/2. MoE +/- 4.3%.
IN-02: General Election Matchup
Donnelly (D)
50%
Chocola (R)
47%
Undecided
3%
South Bend Tribune / WSBT / Research 2000 poll of 400 LVs, MoE of +/- 5%. Conducted Oct. 30-31.
IN-02: General Election Matchup
Donnelly (D)
52%
Chocola (R)
39%
Undecided
6%
Reuters poll of 500 LVs, conducted Oct. 24-29. MoE +/- 4.5 percentage points.
IN-09: General Election Matchup
Sodrel (R)
46%
Hill (D)
47.5%
Undecided
4%
Reuters poll of 500 LVs, conducted Oct. 24-29. MoE +/- 4.5 percentage points.
IN-09: General Election Matchup
Sodrel (R)
45%
Hill (D)
47%
Undecided
8%
Research 2000 / WISH-TV poll conducted Oct. 17-20 of 400 LVs. MoE +/- 5%.
IN-08: General Election Matchup
Hostettler (R)
43%
Ellsworth (D)
50%
Undecided
7%
Research 2000 / WISH-TV poll conducted Oct. 17-20 of 400 LVs. MoE +/- 5%.
MCP: General Election Matchup
Brizzi (R)
50%
Kennedy (D)
42%
Undecided
8%
Research 2000 / WISH-TV poll conducted Oct. 17-20 of 400 LVs. MoE +/- 5%.
IN-09: General Election Matchup
Sodrel (R)
43%
Hill (D)
47%
Other/Undecided
5%
Schansberg (L)
5%
Survey USA / WHAS-TV poll of 519 LVs conducted 10/20-22. MoE +/- 4.4%.
MCP: General Election Matchup
Brizzi (R)
51%
Kennedy (D)
35%
Other/Undecided
14%
WTHR / Selzer & Co. Inc. poll of 600 LVs. Conducted 10/16-18, MoE +/- 4%.
IN-02: General Election Matchup
Chocola (R)
45%
Donnelly (D)
50%
Undecided
5%
WSBT and Research 2000; telephone poll of 400 LVs, Oct. 16-17. MoE +/-5%.
IN-08: General Election Matchup
Hostettler (R)
32%
Ellsworth (D)
55%
Undecided
11%
Evansville Courier Press / Indiana State University poll of 626 LVs, conducted 10/5-12. MoE +/- 3.9%.
IN-02: General Election Matchup
Chocola (R)
46%
Donnelly (D)
50%
Undecided
4%
Majority Watch RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics poll, MoE +/- 3.07%; surveyed 989 voters 10/8-10/10.
IN-09: General Election Matchup
Sodrel (R)
46%
Hill (D)
48%
Other/Undecided
6%
WHAS-TV/SurveyUSA poll of 512 LVs, MoE +/- 4.4%.
IN-02: General Election Matchup
Chocola (R)
36%
Donnelly (D)
52%
Undecided
12%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D) poll; conducted 10/4-5 for the DCCC of 400 LVs; MoE +/- 4.9%
IN-02: General Election Matchup
Chocola (R)
44%
Donnelly (D)
45%
Undecided
11%
A Mercury Public Affairs (R) poll; conducted 10/9 for Chocola, surveying 300 LVs; MoE +/- 5.66%
IN-02: General Election Matchup
Chocola (R)
39%
Donnelly (D)
49%
Undecided
12%
Reuters/Zogby poll, conducted 9/25-10/2 of 502 LVs; MoE +/- 4.5% Party identification: 44%D, 40%R, 16%I/O.
IN-09: General Election Matchup
Sodrel (R)
38%
Hill (D)
46%
Undecided
16%
Reuters/Zogby poll, conducted 9/25-10/2 of 500 LVs; MoE +/- 4.5% Party identification: 47%D, 39%R, 14%I/O.
IN-08: General Election Matchup
Hostettler (R)
31.8%
Ellsworth (D)
47.4%
Undecided
16.6%
No Response
4.1%
Indiana State University / Evansville Courier Press poll, of 603 registered voters, conducted Sept. 6-21, MoE +/- 4%.
IN-02: General Election Matchup
Chocola (R)
42%
Donnelly (D)
50%
Undecided
8%
WSBT and Research 2000; telephone poll of 400 LVs, Sept. 15-17. MoE +/-5%.
IN-02: General Election Matchup
Chocola (R)
40%
Donnelly (D)
52%
Undecided
7%
IN-08: General Election Matchup
Hostettler (R)
45%
Ellsworth (D)
51%
Undecided
4%
IN-09: General Election Matchup
Sodrel (R)
42%
Hill (D)
53%
Undecided
5%
Majority Watch, RT Strategies & Constituent Dynamics. IN-02 data: Sept. 8-10, 1003 respondents; MoE +/- 3.09%. IN-08 data: Sept. 8-10, 1031 respondents; MoE +/- 3.04%. IN-09 data: Sept. 8-10, 1017 respondents; MoE +/- 3.07%.
IN-08: General Election Matchup
Hostettler (R)
40%
Ellsworth (D)
44%
Undecided
16%
IN-09: General Election Matchup
Sodrel (R)
40%
Hill (D)
46%
Undecided
14%
MCP: General Election Matchup
Brizzi (R)
42%
Kennedy (D)
43%
Undecided
15%
IN-09: Worth Going to War
Yes
43%
No
46%
Not Sure
11%
IN-08: Worth Going to War
Yes
45%
No
45%
Not Sure
10%
IN-07: Worth Going to War
Yes
30%
No
59%
Not Sure
11%
Research 2000 poll, conducted Sept. 5-8, MoE +/- 5% of 800 LVs for WISH-TV
IN-02: General Election Matchup
Chocola (R)
41%
Donnelly (D)
46%
Undecided
13%
IN-02: Chocola as Rep.
Approve
47%
Disapprove
47%
IN-02: Donnelly (D) Favorability
Favorable
43%
Unfavorable
31%
IN-02: Chocola (R) Favorability
Favorable
45%
Unfavorable
44%
Conducted 7/21-23 for the South Bend Tribune and WSBT-TV; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 5%
