Maureen Groppe traveled to the Knox to profile the Donnelly/Chocola race. She did mention one statistic that is becoming more important this year: Chocola performed 14 points worse against Tony Zirkle in the 2006 primary than he did in 2004, the first time Zirkle ran. As the race closes, the number will look "more significant," according to the Hotline.
Voter discontent in Indiana is thought to be so strong that the state could provide three of the 15 seats Democrats need to take control of the House. In addition to the north-central Indiana seat Chocola holds, Indiana's two Republican-held southern seats are viewed as up for grabs.
"Indiana is literally the center of the universe right now," said Amy Walter, who tracks House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "To have three Republican incumbents in a very Republican state either tied or behind their Democratic opponents, what is that?"
Chocola's race is viewed by political pundits as a barometer of national trends because the 2nd District is fairly evenly split between Republican and Democratic voters. Each party has won two of the past four contests. Chocola got 54 percent against Donnelly in 2004, considered a low margin for an incumbent.
Still, Chocola did not begin the year as a top Democratic target. He is a strong fundraiser with experience in tough races and no personal scandals. But then the political terrain began to shift.
A March poll for The Indianapolis Star showed President Bush with a 37 percent approval rating in Indiana, where he had won 60 percent of the vote less than two years before.
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels also had an approval rating of 37 percent. Two months later, the May primary sent another warning signal. Chocola's support among GOP voters dropped 14 percentage points from 2004, even though he faced the same unfunded, nominal challenger.
