IOM Analysis: NRCC and DCCC Dump $2.5 Million into Indiana in September

An Indiana On Message analysis of independent expenditures for the month of September shows that nearly $2.5 million dollars was spent by the NRCC and the DCCC in Indiana's most competitive districts, the Second, the "Bloody" Eighth, and the Ninth. Democrats were outspent by over a half-million dollars, only besting their Republican counterparts in IN-02, a district that the NRCC had previously indicated it would sit out. The national Democratic and Republican groups are each dumping the plurality of their Indiana spending into the Eighth district, spending a total of $1.2 million in that district alone. Every public poll taken has shown Democratic challenger Brad Ellsworth leading his opponent, John Hostettler. The two groups have spent some $760,000 in the Ninth, where the NRCC bested the DCCC by a 3-to- 1 margin.

$2.3 of the $2.5 million was spent on television advertising, almost without exception negative.

Analysis district-by-district:

IN-02: $492,040

In the Second District, $492,040 was spent in the month of September by three national groups---AFSCME, the DCCC, and the NRCC---running exclusively negative television ads.

The biggest spender, the DCCC, poured $308,119 into the district, $30,028 of which was spent on ad production, and $278,091 on purchasing air time for the spots. The Democratic group hired Murphy, Putnam, Shorr, and Partners to produce each ad, four in total, all of which are in IOM's ad archive .

The NRCC, which had previously vowed to sit out of IN-02, citing Chocola's ability to self-finance, ended up spending $178,921 in the district. It paid for two polls, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, which totaled $25,410. The polls apparently showed just how much trouble Chris Chocola is in, because four days after the first poll was commissioned, the NRCC decided to jump into the race, and paid Strategic Media Services $72,023 to place ads opposing Democrat Joe Donnelly. The ad, "Dots," was produced by Marsh, Copsey, and Associates , and cost $6,580. A week after the first media buy, the NRCC extended the air time for another $74,908.

AFSCME paid $5,000 to produce television ads opposing Chris Chocola on 9/8, but never paid to air them.

The analysis shows that the DCCC also paid significantly more to media firms for ad production, averaging $7,507 for each spot. The NRCC's lone ad cost $6,580 for production.

IN-08: $1.23 million

$1.23 million dollars was spent in the Bloody Eighth in September by the NRCC and the DCCC, with the NRCC outspending the DCCC by about 1.5-to-1.

Of the NRCC's spending, totaling $752,878, 100% was devoted to negative communications---$66,246 of it on direct mail, $673,927 on television advertising. Stevens, Reed, Curcio, and Potholm got all of the NRCC's production contracts, charging the organization $26,264. $647,663 was spent to air those ads.

The DCCC paid the Strategy Group a total of $9,334 for direct mail, half supporting Brad Ellsworth, and half opposing John Hostettler. $26,105 was paid to AKP Message & Media to produce two negative ads (both in IOM's ad archive, as well as a new one released yesterday) opposing John Hostettler. It paid $467,252 to air the ads in the Eighth. A total of $457,586 was spent by the DCCC. 0.009% of the spending was on positive communications---in this instance, direct mail.

AFSCME paid $5,000 to the Campaign Group, which handled Governor Joe Kernan's media in 2004, to produce television ads opposing Hostettler on 9/8, but never paid to air them.

IN-09: $760,115

The NRCC spent three times more than the DCCC in September, leaving Democrats with a significant cash disparity in one of the nation's most competitive Congressional districts. A third the DCCC's communications were positive; none of the NRCC's were.

Further, the DCCC indicated a much stronger commitment to direct mail, paying the Baughman Company a total of $26,932 for it---half positive, half negative. It spent $164,886 on television; GMMB produced the three ads for $20,565, and they were aired in four separate media buys totaling $144,321.

The NRCC, which spent a total of $568,297 in the district, spent $547,718 on television. Five payments were made to Anthem Media, totaling $24,950, for ad production. $522,768 was spent to air those advertisements. It paid $20,579 for two polls, one conducted on 9/13 and the other conducted on 9/27. Both were performed by the Tarrance Group.