Nationalizing the Election with Straw Men

In today's Journal Gazette, Washington Bureau chief Sylvia Smith reported, "When Hoosiers vote in November, their ballot choices will decide more than their representatives in Washington for the next two years. Indiana will likely determine whether Republicans remain in charge of the House."

Political observers early this year gauged Democratic chances of a House takeover by hinging them on the scope of the election---whether or not voters would frame the choice in national or local terms. But now, Republicans are embracing the national frame, even using it against their Democratic opponents. The NRCC began running a television ad in IN-08 Friday that asks, if Democrats took control of the House, whether Democrat Brad Ellsworth would support Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. "She and other Democrats want to raise your taxes, cut and run in Iraq, and give amnesty to illegal immigrants," it said. (IOM has requested a copy of the ad from the NRCC.)

The first hint of the strategy came on August 30th, when Ellsworth was asked the same question when he spoke before the Evansville Rotary Club. He "deferred, saying he would want to see first who runs for the position."

But for the GOP, it's a tactic that requires voters to apply guilt by association---to a candidate that has never even served with Pelosi. It is either indicative of polling data that shows national figures like Pelosi as intensely disliked in Indiana, or a complete lack of issues with which to attack Ellsworth legitimately. It has to be hard for Chris Chocola to credibly charge that Joe Donnelly "opposed the ethanol bill" when he has no voting record in Congress. By that stretch, it's even more incredulous to suggest Ellsworth should have to justify the ideology of Nancy Pelosi.

In IN-09, though Mike Sodrel has the luxury of Baron Hill's tangible, 6-year long voting record, he too is deploying the same tactic. During the WTIU debate last week, Sodrel said Republican leaders were "from the heartland of America...If this House turns over, Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the House, from San Francisco, California. The likely Majority Leader would be Steny Hoyer, from Maryland. If you look at the various committee chairs, you're basically taking the leadership from the heartland of America to the coasts. And I think that has to be something you consider when you are considering who you are voting for in this election."

By running against the party, instead of the party's candidate, Hoosier Republicans are constructing straw men, imaginary candidates that need not accurately reflect the actual views of the actual candidates.

But are they also inadvertently nationalizing what they so wanted to be a local election?

IN-08: 3Q Reporting

Hostettler

Ellsworth

3Q Net Raised

165,252

430,322

3Q Spent

90,894

693,568

PAC (Total)

16,950

144,523

Debts

9,000

0

CoH

269,704

413,464


IN-09: 3Q Reporting

Sodrel

Hill

3Q Net Raised

437,053

364,542

3Q Spent

486,720

405,019/h3>

PAC (Total)

219,048

111,200

Debts

251,927

0

CoH

1,072,320

927,402


IN-02: 3Q Reporting

Chocola

Donnelly

2Q Net Raised

809,010

551,284

2Q Spent

1,361,584

662,852

PAC (Total)

362,900

153,074

Debts

0

125,400

CoH

1,001,909

333,450


IN-02: 2Q Reporting

Chocola

Donnelly

2Q Net Raised

365,863

176,332

2Q Spent

238,236

63,239

PAC (Total)

180,094

69,368

Debts

0

125,400

CoH

1,554,483

435,216


IN-09: 2Q Reporting

Sodrel

Hill

2Q Net Raised

462,363

375,954

2Q Spent

169,795

96,065

PAC (Total)

205,303

141,900

Debts

255,427

0

CoH

1,138,747

967,879


IN-08: 2Q Reporting

Hostettler

Ellsworth

2Q Net Raised

168,484

354,910

2Q Spent

29,182

211,900

PAC (Total)

46,550

164,552

Debts

9,000

0

CoH

195,146

676,476


IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

46%

Hill (D)

44%

Undecided

4%

Schansberg

5%


Survey USA / WHAS-TV poll of 538 LVs, conducted 10/31-11/2. MoE +/- 4.3%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Donnelly (D)

50%

Chocola (R)

47%

Undecided

3%


South Bend Tribune / WSBT / Research 2000 poll of 400 LVs, MoE of +/- 5%. Conducted Oct. 30-31.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Donnelly (D)

52%

Chocola (R)

39%

Undecided

6%


Reuters poll of 500 LVs, conducted Oct. 24-29. MoE +/- 4.5 percentage points.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

46%

Hill (D)

47.5%

Undecided

4%


Reuters poll of 500 LVs, conducted Oct. 24-29. MoE +/- 4.5 percentage points.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

45%

Hill (D)

47%

Undecided

8%


Research 2000 / WISH-TV poll conducted Oct. 17-20 of 400 LVs. MoE +/- 5%.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

43%

Ellsworth (D)

50%

Undecided

7%


Research 2000 / WISH-TV poll conducted Oct. 17-20 of 400 LVs. MoE +/- 5%.



MCP: General Election Matchup

Brizzi (R)

50%

Kennedy (D)

42%

Undecided

8%


Research 2000 / WISH-TV poll conducted Oct. 17-20 of 400 LVs. MoE +/- 5%.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

43%

Hill (D)

47%

Other/Undecided

5%

Schansberg (L)

5%


Survey USA / WHAS-TV poll of 519 LVs conducted 10/20-22. MoE +/- 4.4%.



MCP: General Election Matchup

Brizzi (R)

51%

Kennedy (D)

35%

Other/Undecided

14%


WTHR / Selzer & Co. Inc. poll of 600 LVs. Conducted 10/16-18, MoE +/- 4%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

45%

Donnelly (D)

50%

Undecided

5%


WSBT and Research 2000; telephone poll of 400 LVs, Oct. 16-17. MoE +/-5%.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

32%

Ellsworth (D)

55%

Undecided

11%


Evansville Courier Press / Indiana State University poll of 626 LVs, conducted 10/5-12. MoE +/- 3.9%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

46%

Donnelly (D)

50%

Undecided

4%


Majority Watch RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics poll, MoE +/- 3.07%; surveyed 989 voters 10/8-10/10.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

46%

Hill (D)

48%

Other/Undecided

6%


WHAS-TV/SurveyUSA poll of 512 LVs, MoE +/- 4.4%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

36%

Donnelly (D)

52%

Undecided

12%


Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D) poll; conducted 10/4-5 for the DCCC of 400 LVs; MoE +/- 4.9%



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

44%

Donnelly (D)

45%

Undecided

11%


A Mercury Public Affairs (R) poll; conducted 10/9 for Chocola, surveying 300 LVs; MoE +/- 5.66%



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

39%

Donnelly (D)

49%

Undecided

12%


Reuters/Zogby poll, conducted 9/25-10/2 of 502 LVs; MoE +/- 4.5% Party identification: 44%D, 40%R, 16%I/O.



IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

38%

Hill (D)

46%

Undecided

16%


Reuters/Zogby poll, conducted 9/25-10/2 of 500 LVs; MoE +/- 4.5% Party identification: 47%D, 39%R, 14%I/O.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

31.8%

Ellsworth (D)

47.4%

Undecided

16.6%

No Response

4.1%


Indiana State University / Evansville Courier Press poll, of 603 registered voters, conducted Sept. 6-21, MoE +/- 4%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

42%

Donnelly (D)

50%

Undecided

8%


WSBT and Research 2000; telephone poll of 400 LVs, Sept. 15-17. MoE +/-5%.



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

40%

Donnelly (D)

52%

Undecided

7%

IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

45%

Ellsworth (D)

51%

Undecided

4%

IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

42%

Hill (D)

53%

Undecided

5%


Majority Watch, RT Strategies & Constituent Dynamics. IN-02 data: Sept. 8-10, 1003 respondents; MoE +/- 3.09%. IN-08 data: Sept. 8-10, 1031 respondents; MoE +/- 3.04%. IN-09 data: Sept. 8-10, 1017 respondents; MoE +/- 3.07%.



IN-08: General Election Matchup

Hostettler (R)

40%

Ellsworth (D)

44%

Undecided

16%

IN-09: General Election Matchup

Sodrel (R)

40%

Hill (D)

46%

Undecided

14%

MCP: General Election Matchup

Brizzi (R)

42%

Kennedy (D)

43%

Undecided

15%

IN-09: Worth Going to War

Yes

43%

No

46%

Not Sure

11%

IN-08: Worth Going to War

Yes

45%

No

45%

Not Sure

10%

IN-07: Worth Going to War

Yes

30%

No

59%

Not Sure

11%


Research 2000 poll, conducted Sept. 5-8, MoE +/- 5% of 800 LVs for WISH-TV



IN-02: General Election Matchup

Chocola (R)

41%

Donnelly (D)

46%

Undecided

13%

IN-02: Chocola as Rep.

Approve

47%

Disapprove

47%

IN-02: Donnelly (D) Favorability

Favorable

43%

Unfavorable

31%

IN-02: Chocola (R) Favorability

Favorable

45%

Unfavorable

44%


Conducted 7/21-23 for the South Bend Tribune and WSBT-TV; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 5%