The DCCC went on the air yesterday with a new ad attacking John Hostettler. I'm working on getting a copy of the ad, but here's the script for now:
What's happened to John Hostettler? After storms ravaged Indiana, he voted to adjourn Congress before flood relief was secured. Despite our state being ripped apart by tornadoes, Hostettler voted to cut nearly $400 million from disaster aid. Hostettler even voted against funding to rebuild after Katrina. It's hard to say why our congressman changed, but one thing's clear -- it's time to change our congressman.
Also, the Evanville Courier-Press published a story about an Ellsworth poll today that's already obsolete, now that we have the fresh data out of Research 2000 today:
Garin-Hart-Yang did not return a message seeking comment, but a memo by the firm to Aiken says 505 Vanderburgh County voters were surveyed in early August. The Vanderburgh poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
The memo does not provide the wording of questions asked or the sequence and context in which they were asked.
University of Evansville political scientist Robert L. Dion said the poll Aiken released lacks too much supporting detail - such as whether the voters surveyed were likely or registered voters - to be credible.
Ellsworth's 32-point margin in Vanderburgh County also is unlikely, Dion said.
But Dion said Garin-Hart-Yang has a national reputation as "one of the best there is."
"Usually candidates pay good money for professional polling to find out what's working and what's not working," he said. "Typically, they do hold those results close to their vests."
Dion said he has seen challengers release selected portions of polls "to give the appearance of a close race or to give the appearance of momentum."
"But those challengers were trying to jump-start a campaign, and I'm not sure either candidate in this race needs a jump-start," he said.
If the Ellsworth campaign does have a poll showing him handily defeating Hostettler, Dion said, there would be good reasons not to release it.
"You worry about overconfidence, you worry about exciting your opponent," he said. "Sometimes if you're way ahead, you can run out of steam. Your supporters may not feel it's as important to mobilize if they're convinced you're a sure thing."
