The Feed

The End to 20th Century Politics

By RYAN NEES and BRIAN A. HOWEY

INDIANAPOLIS - The final moments of 20th Century politics ticked away on Aug. 10, 2006. On that day, Brad Ellsworth was pledging not to take a Congressional pay raise. U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel was blogging from the U.S.-Mexican border. The RNCC was accusing Baron Hill of comparing immigrants to rodents. Gov. Mitch Daniels was putting the finishing touches on Indiana's strategic energy plan.

For on the very next day and 500 miles away, U.S. Sen. George Allen, R-Va., and a prohibitive favorite for re-election as well as a poised 2008 presidential contender, was campaigning in Breaks, Va., when he spotted a 20-year-old James Webb for Senate volunteer, S.R. Sidarth, with a video cam (pictured top, left, with Sen. Allen).

"This fellow here, over here with the yellow shirt, macaca, or whatever his name is. He's with my opponent. He's following us around everywhere. And it's just great," Allen said to amused supporters.

Within hours, Sidarth's video made it onto You Tube, the quote taken as an ethnic slur (macaca is a monkey and an African racial slur). It quickly became one of the most watched videos on the internet, and within days became the fodder for the cable news outlets and networks. Webb would go on to defeat Sen. Allen by less than 1 percent, and the Senate would go Democratic 51-49, shifting the balance of power in the United States. It's one reason why TIME Magazine cited "You" and YouTube as its person of the year.

Whereas President Lyndon B. Johnson's "Daisy" ad (showing a little girl plucking petals off a daisy followed by a mushroom cloud) opened the era of the 30-second ad (playing only once on Sept. 7, 1964, during the "Movie of the Week,") Simon Rosenberg of the New Democratic Network, believes "Macaca" essentially opened the era of 21st Century politics. "I believe the great video that is going to change the election of 2008 is probably going to be generated by an average person," Rosenberg told the seventh annual L. Keith Bulen Symposium on American Politics at IUPUI on Monday. He called the "Macaca" YouTube video "a marginal event" that literally changed the balance of power in the Senate.

You ain't seen nothin' yet

And, as President Reagan would say, "You ain't seen nothin' yet." The media itself is changing in the United States. Rosenberg believes that newspapers as we know them will be gone within 10 years. It's one reason why Indianapolis Star Editor Dennis Ryerson is replacing reporters and photographers with reader-generated content. It's the reason Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi conducted one of the first true American web campaign components.

"We've left the broadcast era of political communications and we're moving to one that is much different," Rosenberg said. "Broadcast was sort of top-down from one to many. We now have a media environment that is very, very different. Let's talk about new distribution systems. When we grew up, there were three televison channels. And now, what are we facing? How many do I have in my home? TIVO is very shortly going to allow you to start recording video off the internet, meaning you will have bilions of channels on your televison, not hundreds. So the most significant thing happening is thst we're moving from a low brandwith internet to a high bandwith internet."

Rosenberg, a former soldier in Bill Clinton's Little Rock War Room, explained, "Before it was text and photos. But now we're seeing high bandwith activities. You can move onto the internet with music, television and film. We are now entering the YouTube Internet Age. You can see broadband at home is crossing into Americans with huge access. There is 50 percent broadband penetration. If it's 60 percent of households, it will be 70-75 percent of people."

And mobile media

Then there is mobile media. "The next two years, there's going to be an extraordinary explosion of mobile media - cell phones, mobile phones, internet," Rosenberg said. "Forty million people will have access by the end of 2008 to broadband video on their telephones. That's a third of the voters who are going to be able to look at real time video on You Tube. That will be a rapid response toll for a political campaign. A huge part of the internet is user-generated content that people are sharing."

And, Rosenberg predicted, "We have also arrived at an era of cheap new tools. This is very important. In 2002, there were three million blogs. More Democrats get their news from blogs than from any other source other than traditional mainstream. This is not a fringe media any more, this is a dominant media form."

He called Markos Moulitsas Zúniga, who blogs on the Daily Kos "the most influential Democratic operative in America today." As Michael Krempasky of RedStates.Org observed, "Like him or hate him, Kos has a lot of power behind him and opportunity before him. He is helping Democrats all across the country to feel engaged, and have an impact." Indiana Democrats hosted the "Taking Down Words" blog that played to the choir, while earning Jennifer Wagner the reputation of being, perhaps, the nastiest woman in Indiana politics, though the blog's impact of how many votes it attracted and candidates elected for the party are unknown.

Tivo killed the 30-second star

But the real game changer is Tivo. Several years ago at DePauw University, HPR asked Dr. James Thurber of American University about the impact of the TV synthesizer that allows users to access any TV show at any time, and filter out the commercials. As the 20th Century slipped way, Thurber was unable to gauge the impact of Tivo.

But Rosenberg said, "With Tivo, we have an enormous increase in DVRs - digital video recording - in home. Almost half of all voters will have the ability to skip all televison commercials in 2008. We all know the percentage of people who will skip all political television commercials. It's going to be 100 percent. This is the end of the 30-second spot. A minority of people watching television at any moment in 2008 will be watching live broadcast television, with the incredible penetration of cable and satellite and DVR, we are now entering a period where 30 second spots are no longer going to be the dominant form of political communication. Who's run a political campaign in that environment? It's wide open for all of us as we go forward."

As HPR reported on Nov. 16, Indiana House Democrats went mostly to direct mail in 2006, sending out more than 2 million pieces in 170 different mailings. House Republicans increased their direct mail from 700,000 in 2004 to 1.6 million in 2006.

"In a primary, direct mail is clearly a much better method than TV," Democratic Chairman Dan Parker said. "We know who's going to vote in a primary." But Parker refused to say that TV is a dead medium. "TV saved (State Rep.) Tim Harris," Parker said, adding that using local network affiliates is inefficient. "They spent a lot of money on Indianapolis TV to reach 8,000 people out of a million."

Rosenberg notes, "This year Google will sell as many ads as all of ABC. Google has already become one of the major media advertisers in all the world. The ads can be microtargeted, literally zip plus four. It's a huge differentiation. Internet advertising is really going to be transforming politics."

IndianaOnMessage Review

Which gets us to the project we offered up a month ago. Western High School junior Ryan Nees, who forged the IndianaOnMessage website that has partnered with HPR, for the first time in Indiana history, compiled most of the legislative and congressional TV and radio ads that aired in Indiana during the 2006 election cycle.

As innovative as this project was, if Rosenberg is to be believed, 2006 may be the last cyle of the 30-second ad, which CNN reported ran in the Evansville TV market five hours after the polls closed on Dec. 7. There was $2.1 billion spent on TV advertising nationally during the 2006 election cycle, a record, with Indiana congressional candidates spending more than $13.4 million, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Another $12 million was spent by independent groups such as MoveOn (which spent $245,000 against U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola) and political parties, where national Republicans gave the Indiana GOP $1.1 million.

Vanderbilt University Prof. John Geer, editor of The Journal of Politics, also appeared at the Bulen Symposium as a defender of attack ads. "They have increased dramatically in the last 40 years," said Geer because the "parties are polarizing" in a "highly competitive environment." He said that attack ads flourish because the "news media is a huge culprit."

"Negative ads get news media coverage," Geer said. "Journalists and pundits look for the most outrageous ad and talk about it. It's the craziest, most vicious ads that get attention." In the 2004 Bush-Kerry ads, the "swift boat ads" got far more media attention than those discussing the Iraq War.

A good example was an RNCC ad (above) run on behalf of U.S. Rep. John Hostettler that accused Speaker Nancy Pelosi of planning to install the "homosexual agenda."

Geer, however, defends attack ads, noting that 70 percent of the Declaration of Independence was an attack on King George III. Geer said that between 1960 and 2000, about 75 percent of political ads were attack ads with issues, compared to 50 percent of positive ads. Documentation was 8 to 1 more likely in a negative ad than a positive one. "Attack ads have to have a basis of truth, whereas positive ads get away with all kinds of stuff."

HPR and IndianaOnMessage provides this analysis for political ads in the 2006 election cycle.

IN-02: Ads don't have to be memorable.

Some ads took on a nearly cult-like following among activists and junkies alike, notably the DCCC's "Chocolate for Chocola," an ad depicting a series of love notes exchanged between the Congressman and oil tycoons, who came complete with cigars and cowboy hats, bearing gifts of flowers and chocolates. But by and large, the ads were forgettable. Though for Democratic media consultants (like the Fenn Group, whoich cut Donnelly's ads, and Murphy Putnam Shorr, the firm employed by the DCCC in the Second), that's not the point. Success, they argue, isn't intrinsic to the memorability of the ads. Moving public opinion is done at a subconscious level that depends not on emotion or humor (tactics often employed by corporate ad makers on Madison Street), but repetition and "persuasion".

The repetition required makes it a more expensive method, both because it's better suited to broadcast television and because the ad has to be run many more times, and makes the ad consultant's job both far easier and far less creative … but it seemed to work in IN-02. Voters couldn't pick out an individual ad that convinced them of Chris Chocola's special interest-back-slapping kind of corruption, but the impression was clearly cemented.

Republicans: Trash Joe

In any other year, Chris Chocola's series of factually devastating tax attack ads might have sunk Joe Donnelly's campaign. But their shear shrillness backfired on Chocola, and could have in fact been counterproductive to Chocola's cause, kindly reinforcing Donnelly's primary argument that Chocola was an out-of-touch negative politician, concerned less with people and more with his own power. Their nastiness turned voters off, even against Chocola. For a politician with little goodwill in the community, and whose career was due in large part to negative campaigning, the spots proved to be too nasty. Though a subjective line, Chocola undoubtedly crossed it.

Democrats: Too nice

Though much has been made (by journalists, primarily) about the nastiness of the Marion County Prosecutor's race, it should have been far nastier if Melina Kennedy hoped to win. She should have swung like a cudgel at Brizzi case after case of released murderer. It would have been easy, and the paper trail certainly voluminous enough to create the impression that Brizzi was weak on crime, that, in fact, he was personally responsible for part of the county's upswing in crime. In a high crime year, during a Democratic wave, in an increasingly Democratic county, it ps beguiling to contemplate how a well-funded candidate personally anointed by Bart Peterson managed to lose this race. The most profound, and expensive, problem was her television ads.

Instead of running thundering, grainy black-and-white ads linking Carl Brizzi to the most depraved of Indianapolis thugs, Kennedy's camp airedsophomoric ads that were weak both on production and message. When Brizzi's camp ran spots with tough-guy candidate Carl strutting down smoke-filled alleys, Kennedy responded by trying to frame the race as somehow a referendum on leadership style, not prosecutorial misjudgment and neglect, the only compelling (and abounding) reasons the voters had to oust Brizzi. Kennedy alleged that Brizzi's bad judgment allowed repeat criminals to walk out of jail and go on murderous rampages. How many of those criminals are walking Indianapolis neighborhoods now? It's a question that Kennedy never bothered to pose. Instead, she wasted one spot pointing out that the prosecutor's office employed 150 deputies who needed "direction [and] training." A radio ad -- I swear, I'm not making this up -- actually lectured voters on the fine points of asset forfeiture, a term they all "should know." It personified Kennedy's campaign perfectly.

Brizzi was the one candidate who distinctly moved from the 20th Century 30-second ads, to 21st Century internet ads. Developed by Carmel-based Media Soft, Brizzi supporters would get an e-mail with a link that read: "Click here to get a personal message from Carl Brizzi." They would then find Brizzi, with logos, talking directly to them. Or a deputy sheriff, or a three-part cartoon series. It was incredibly innovative stuff taken right out of the YouTube playbook, and available to be passed on from supporter to potential voter. "I don't know of anywhere else where there was a full web campaign," said Jennifer Hallowell, Brizzi's campaign manager and executive director of Indiana GOP. And the impact? "Hard to measure," Hallowell said. "We got some buzz off it. We heard from people who had them forwarded." Watch for more and more campaigns to go this route in 2007 and 2008.

Ellsworth ran an 'incumbent' campaign

Brad Ellsworth, congressman-elect in the 8th CD, ran a near-perfect incumbent campaign, despite the obvious: he was a challenger. Yet the lead that he started with he maintained throughout the campaign, ceding barely an inch. One of his best decisions was undoubtedly hiring Dixon-Davis Media Group, who went 9-0 nationally, winning Claire McCaskill's Missouri Senate race, two governorships, and seven other Congressional races. In the Ninth, Sodrel's media firm, Dawson McCarthy Nelson, went 4-4, and Baron Hill's, McMahon, Squier & Associates, went 3-2. Fenn Communications, which managed Donnelly's ads, won 7 of its 12 races. Chocola's firm, Stevens Reed Curcio & Potholm, won exactly half of its 14 races.

Lugar's positive message

Dick Lugar's ads got a fair bit of press simply because it was universally accepted that he didn't need to run media. So it was refreshing, then, when he spent millions to spur discussion and educate voters on the profound foreign policy and energy challenges confronting the nation. But some national Republicans must be wishing that Lugar had chipped in more to the NRSC (For perspective, at the end of October, Hillary Clinton had given $1 million dollars to the DSCC. Lugar had transferred $75,000 to the NRSC.), which could scarcely afford to go on the air in the expensive Philadelphia and New York media markets that might have put Tom Kean Jr. over the top against freshman New Jersey Democrat Bob Menendez, a win that would have kept Lugar the chairman ofthe Senate Foreign Relations Committee. It was a bitter irony for the party that had enjoyed, even boasted about, 3-to-1 (or greater) cash advantages for years.

The Worst ad

In our view, the worst ad of the cycle was Francie Metzger's assault ad against State Rep. Teri Austin. It ran grainy footage of immigrants that accused Austin of aiding and abetting lawbreaker foreigners. It was a Republican attempt to exploit the greatest 2006 campaign fantasy: that immigration would deliver pluralities. The problem is that the issue is largely a federal one, not one where the Indiana General Assembly played a huge role. At the Congressional level, the lasting legacy of U.S. Reps. Chocola, Sodrel and Hostettler is that Latinos voted 70 percent Democratic, up about 20 percent over 2004. Not only did these Hoosier Republicans lose, they may have alienated for many election cycles to come the fastest growing demographic group in the nation. Rosenberg eexplained, "This country has become more southern and western, more suburban and exurban; the nation more spanish-speaking and immigrant. The transformation of our people is creating is a new kind of politics: 70 of the 100 largest cities are located in the South and West. In 2032, if the Census projections continue, Arizona will have as many Electoral College seats as New York; Hispanics will be 25 percent of the American electorate. Today, they represent 9 percent."

Best radio ad

U.S. Rep. Mark Souder posted a radio ad advising Tom Hayhurst supporters on how to get to Grabill. He supplied directions from both Fort Wayne and New Haven, pointing out cemeteries where his ancestors are buried and where to park when they got there. It was vintage Mark Souder, who despite a mid-October scare, cruised easily to victory against a well-financed opponent.

Epilogue

Simon Rosenberg explained: "Remember how the Boomers changed American culture? We've got a new generation coming along that is just as big in numerical amounts called the Millenials, 26 and younger. The way they do politics, the way they do media - they don't read newspapers, they live off these small devices. Any movement has got to focus on Millenials. General assumptions guiding American politics are going to come to an end. Both political parties and both ideological movements are at the beginning of the dawn of a new era."

HPR/IOM READER INTERACTIVE PROJECT BEGINS

The Howey Political Report and IndianaOnMessage are inviting readers to participate in an interactive project. Most of the legislative and Congressional campaign TV and radio ads are posted on the HPR/IOM websites. We're asking readers to tell us which campaign ads were the best, the worst, and the most innovative and why. E-mail your comments to brianhowey@howeypolitics.com or ryannees@gmail.com. Nees created the IndianaOnMessage website that, for the first time in Indiana history, compiled most of the campaign TV and radio ads in one place. "In the past, political campaigns could put whatever they wanted on the air and after election day, all was forgotten," said HPR Publisher Brian A. Howey. "This year, all will not be forgotten. HPR and IndianaOnMessage will present a thorough review of these ads and what impact they had on the 2006 elections." The survey results will be published in the Dec. 14 edition of The Howey Political Report and will be posted online at www.howeypolitics.com and www.indianaonmessage.com

Post-Election Analysis: Dispatches from Kokomo

Dwight Singer's about as iconoclastic as they come in Howard County politics. He coaches basketball and, when the leaves are still falling, is the announcer at Western High School football games that hundreds religiously flock to every Friday. This spring, after several decades as a stalwart member of the Howard County Council, he decided to mix up his monotonous public service a bit, vacating his council seat for a run at County Commissioner. Cycle after cycle, he was utterly unbeatable. He had not lost even once.

But last night, first-time candidate Democrat Dave Trine, a Kokomo police officer and small business owner, beat Singer by 63 votes—the first county-wide election any Democrat has won in Howard County in six cycles.

The wave had washed ashore.

...

State Representative John Smith practically drowned in it. Ron Herrell, the State Representative whom Smith narrowly ousted in 2004, beat Smith in a rematch by almost 13 points-the largest margin in any of Indiana's Democratic pickup legislative districts, and by far the biggest showing Herrell's made in his career, which has been riddled with nail biters. The win gave Democrats one of the three districts they needed to reclaim the lower chamber.

...

Howard County Republican Party chairman Brad Bagwell resigned in disgrace within mere hours of getting more bad news: returns showed Joe Donnelly thrashing Chris Chocola by fourteen points in Kokomo.

In Howard County, Democrats shocked all by winning a majority of straight ticket voters-50.2% to the GOP's 48.6%-accounting for over 20% of all ballots cast. In 2004, straight ticket Dems made up just 17% of the total ballots. The GOP, in contrast, saw the overall percentage of their straight ticket voters decline four percentage points, from nearly 24% to just under 20%.

It's true that there's an overall increase in straight ticket voting nationwide, and in actuality the numbers might not bode well for Donnelly, more indicative of a wave Election than the sort of support he'll need if he hopes to win a second term in 2008--when the Congressman-elect will likely face a better Republican candidate in a better Republican year. Voters who went straight ticket were sending a message to President Bush, and might not have been delivering a ringing personal endorsement for Donnelly.

In the end, though, the Kokomo count put Donnelly 1,332 votes above Chocola, reversing the eight-point deficit he suffered just two years ago in the tiny splinter of the city that was cut out by legislative Democrats hoping to leverage working class factory workers and fatten Democratic margins. This year the gerrymandering finally worked after two straight losses in the demographically advantageous district, and helped to offset the huge disparities that Chocola racked up in Carroll and other rural counties.

The numbers were so convincing, apparently exceeding the Democrat's turnout models, that the Donnelly campaign had deemed the race won well before any media outlet had, less than three hours after the polls had closed.

It wasn't the sort of confidence that bode well for Chris Chocola or Dwight Singer.

Prediction Feed

The Howey Political Report is calling a 54-46 Democratic State House. Ed Feighenbaum has it at 52-48, Jim Shella at 51-49, Eric Berman at 51-49, and Abdul-Hakim Shabazz 52-48. All give the majority to the Democrats.

Feighenbaum, Howey, and Shella are all giving the 2nd to Joe Donnelly, the 8th to Ellsworth, and the 9th to Sodrel. Howey's going out on a limb in the Seventh: Dickerson upsets Carson.

Numbers

On Saturday, Chris Chocola's congressional campaign made 40,030 voter contacts---the third highest total for a Congressional campaign in the nation.

$4,895,490 in independent expenditures have been made in the Ninth through 11/1. It's the 7th most expensive House campaign in the nation. (excluding CA-50 numbers, which include the special)

In only one other Congressional District (PA-06) has the DCCC spent more than than it has in the Bloody Eighth so far: $2,126,465.

Polls close at 6 PM tomorrow.

[IN-09] WHAS Poll Shows Sodrel Up by Two Points

By my count, it's the first independent poll that shows a Republican leading in any of the Big Three all year long. 46% Sodrel, 44% Hill, 5% Schansberg, 4% undecided.

Much has been made of Eric Schansberg's potential spoiler effect---it's been widely suspected that he'd siphon away disaffected conservatives from Sodrel---but this poll indicates that his supporters are disproportionately liberal. Perhaps Schansberg's attention to the working poor is wooing them?

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 11/03/2006 08:12:00 PM

Hotline Predicts 3-0 Dem Wave in Indiana

Chuck Todd and John Mercurio see "no reason" why Democrats won't run the table in Indiana next Tuesday. The predictions came on today's episode of HotlineTV. Mercurio said that IN-09 would be "by far" the closest...But Donnelly will be a "one-term wonder," the two say, doomed to be picked off easily in 2008...

HPR Column

My latest column for the Howey Political Report, on Chocola's faltering ad strategy.

The race in Indiana's Second district might best be described with that old playground adage: "I'm rubber, you're glue. Whatever you say bounces off of me and sticks to you."

Chris Chocola found that out the hard way in July, when he began running television ads claiming that "Joe Donnelly wants to raise our taxes but he has a problem paying his own." The ads ticked off a list of fifteen late payments Donnelly made that "resulted in thousands of dollars of penalties" while he was donating hundreds of thousands of dollars to his 2004 campaign. The facts were damaging, and in any other year, might have been crippling. But Chocola found that voters didn't care much, and a South Bend Tribune / WSBT / Research 2000 poll showed that a whole 71% of respondents said that the late taxes didn't make them less likely to support the Democrat. This the result of months of opposition research and well over a million dollars in television and radio advertising that Chocola pumped in to the district.

Poll after poll, Donnelly's unfavorable numbers stayed generally steady, moving up just 5 points in the course of a month of withering attacks, but remaining below 40%. And Chocola's unfavs continued to suffer, as the stench of his campaign rubbed off on his polling. They in fact balanced his favorable numbers, at about 45-45% for three polls in a row.

In short, Chocola's once again depending on negative campaigning, gambling that his attacks will stick. But for two months, his strategy has floundered, vetoed by a harshly anti-GOP environment. Last month Charlie Cook characterized it in this way: Democrats are Teflon, and Republicans are Velcro.

The two-term Republican incumbent is in office thanks almost entirely to the negativity he deployed against Jill Long Thompson and Joe Donnelly, but he did so to the detriment of developing any sort of pool of personal affection with his constituents---he's never even cracked 55% of the general election vote.
When times get tough, Chris Chocola has little to fall back on. What's a Congressman to do?

For Chocola, his only recourse is to continue hitting Donnelly, hoping something will stick.

So "imagine this," began a Chocola radio ad unveiled this week, "your employer deducts payroll taxes from your paycheck, but instead of sending your taxes to the government, your employer keeps them for himself. Sounds illegal, doesn't it? Well it is, but Joe Donnelly did exactly that."

The ad alleges that Donnelly's rubber stamp company, Marking Solutions, pocketed $90,000 of its employees' payroll taxes, withholding them from the government. Upon discovering the fraud, the ad says, the IRS put a lien on the company.

But Chocola's tried this trick before. It didn't work. It's unlikely to work now.

In any other cycle, it might. And you can bet the same narrative will be dragged out in 2008, and deployed against a Congressman Donnelly.

Notice to Dear Readers

In way of explanation to everyone who keeps signing up for the email list over and over again, thinking that there must be some logical technical error explaining the lack of e-mails being sent: Yeah, I'm just not terribly enthusiastic about constantly sending those out in addition to all of the other work the site requires. If only there were more time in the day.

You're on the list, I'm just neglecting you, is all.

Also, does anyone have thoughts on what I should do with this thing after Election Day? Let it die abruptly, or slowly starve it of life? Or, I suppose, expand it and branch off. Comment here.

The Polls Thus Far

Pollster has some pretty cool polling flash features that have been tracking results in IN-02, -08, and -09.

Brian Howey on NPR, Indiana's Competitive CDs

Audio - MP3

The publisher of the Howey Political Report made an appearance on NPR's All Things Considered this evening, giving national listeners some insight into Indiana's competitive Congressional seats.

[IN-09] In One Day, DCCC Drops Over $1.2 Million Dollars into the Ninth

Whoa. On 11/1, the DCCC spent a total of $1,218,064.

- $212,019 media buy supporting Hill
- $636,057 media buy opposing Sodrel
- $5,025 for positive production (GMMB)
- $5,025 for negative production (GMMB)
- $9,950 for negative production (GMMB)
- $87,497 media buy supporting Hill
- $262,491 media buy opposing Sodrel

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 11/02/2006 04:56:00 PM

WaPo's Worst Run Campaigns: Chocola & Hostettler

I've updated the HPR Legislative race rankings...there's been quite a bit of movement, so check them out.

Also, two of Indiana's three endangered Republicans made the WaPo's list of worst run campaigns:

Rep. Chris Chocola (R-Ind.): Chocola's poor campaign actually began at the end of last cycle when he refused to go negative against Democrat Joe Donnelly -- choosing instead to run positive ads touting his own accomplishments. As a result, Donnelly ended the 2004 contest with high name identification and strong favorable ratings -- a nice starting point for the 2006 rematch. Even so, Chocola would not likely be in the dire straits he currently finds himself had he been willing to exploit his financial advantage over Donnelly earlier this year. At the end of June, Chocola had $1.5 million in the bank compared with $445,000 for Donnelly. Chocola never took advantage of that money gap and allowed Donnelly to rapidly catch him on the financial front. The result? Chocola is one of the most endangered incumbents in the country.
...
Rep. John Hostettler (R-Ind.): The funny thing about Hostettler is that he has run no worse a campaign this year than in elections past. He has always disavowed fundraising and paid political professionals; his sister runs his campaign office and the congressman himself serves as the lead (and only) political consultant for the race. Unfortunately for Hostettler, that 1970s approach to political campaigns has run into a buzz saw named Brad Ellsworth (D) this time around. Despite Ellsworth's obvious strengths as a candidate (a sheriff he boasts strong law enforcement credentials as well as being conservative on social issues), Hostettler never adjusted to the seriousness of this race and seems headed for a bad loss on Tuesday.

Chamber of Commerce Takes it to the Net

The US Chamber of Commerce has setup websites archiving their television advertisements on behalf of select political candidates---in Indiana, they'd be Mike Sodrel and Chris Chocola. Now they're promoting the sites with ads placed on newspaper websites (caps below). I've seen the tile ads on the South Bend Tribune and the Herald Times...

[IN-09] Bush Rallies with Sodrel

Video - WMV

Fox News clips from Bush's rally with Mike Sodrel. (6 minutes, 15mb)

Sorry about the slow blogging lately...Campaign ads are coming in upwards of 5-7 a day, and those take precedent...

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/28/2006 04:34:00 PM

[IN-08] Hostettler to Press: Give Me Front Page, or It's a "Insult to the People of this Nation"

From today's noon newscast of WTVW-TV FOX 7 in Evansville:

Anchor: 8th District Congressman John Hostettler is asking for an apology from some local media. The Republican incumbent was presented with the 2006 Homeland Defender Award by the mother of a New York firefighter who lost his life on 9/11. Hostettler said the Evansville Courier and Press ran a small mention of this award on the obituary page. Hostettler calls that a cold and thoughtless move.

Hostettler: This is a stain on the sacrifice made by those families. This is an insult to the people of this nation, and this is insensitive to the great patriotism that I have seen evidenced by the people of Indiana.

Anchor: Editors at the Courier and Press were unavailable for comment.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/24/2006 08:15:00 PM

NRCC Jumps into IN-03

After polling the Third last week, that NRCC has decided to buy ad time attacking Tom Hayhurst. $8,460 for production went to Anthem Media today, and $72,758.50 was paid to Strategic Media Services for the media buy.

[MPC] Brizzi Leads By Eight in Second WISH Poll

Video - WMV

The second WISH-TV/Research 2000 poll (crosstabs) surveyed 400 LVs, MoE +/- 5%. Brizzi is leading Kennedy 50-42%, 8% undecided. In the 7th district, Julia Carson is leading Eric Dickerson 48-43%, with 9% undecided. Results from the 8th and 9th CDs will be coming this week....

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/23/2006 05:26:00 PM

[IN-09] Poll Coming Today...Hill Up by Four

A poll will be released today by SurveyUSA that shows Baron Hill four points ahead of Mike Sodrel...the data is not yet available online, but I'll post it when it is.

Will a Democratic House Reduce Indiana's Clout?

Committee chairmanships would be lost:

Indiana -- at least initially -- stands to lose more committee chairmen than it would gain in a power switch because the delegation is now dominated by Republicans, many of whom have been in Washington long enough to head committees.

Sen. Richard Lugar, for example, would lose his chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee if Democrats take control of the Senate. Rep. Steve Buyer, R-Monticello, would no longer head the House Veterans Affairs Committee if the GOP loses control of the House.

U.S. Reps. Dan Burton, R-Indianapolis, Mark Souder, R-Fort Wayne, and John Hostettler, R-Wadesville, would no longer run subcommittees under that scenario.
Indiana lawmakers might get two new leadership roles.

U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky, D-Merrillville, likely would take over the House panel that writes the annual spending bill for energy and water projects if Democrats control the speaker's office.

And Rep. Mike Pence, R-Columbus, could find opportunity in a GOP loss. If Republicans decide to shake up their leadership team, Pence -- who heads a group of House conservatives -- likely would be a candidate for one of the top spots.
Democratic leaders say Indiana likely would see its clout increase quickly if the party takes control in January. If the state delivers three of the 15 seats the Democrats needs to take the House, they say, the successful challengers might be rewarded with key committee assignments.

"I think it's been pretty much written in a lot of places that for Democrats to take a majority, they must be successful here in Indiana," said Dan Parker, chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party. "I'm hopeful that people remember that after the fact."

Herald Times: "Kokomo kid's the go-to guy for political junkies"

In today's edition of the Herald Times (online subscription only), Mike Leonard heaps some praise on this site. (Hat tips: Akard & Steve)

It might surprise some people that one of the best and most viewed Internet sites on Indiana politics is run by a 17-year-old high school student from the Kokomo suburbs if they didn't already know the name Ryan Nees.

In February, Nees, then a sophomore at Western High School, sued the city of Kokomo and won after Mayor Matt McKillip refused to turn over a municipal e-mail list that that Nees suspected was also being used for campaign mailings and other nongovernmental purposes.

Newspapers called Nees' dogged pursuit of his complaint a "major legal victory" and "a heroic effort for public access," and USA Today picked up on the story as well.

In August, the Society of Professional Journalists honored Nees and two professional journalists from Salt Lake City with their prestigious Sunshine Awards for "important contributions in the area of open government."

"That was certainly an honor to come from an organization for which I have a great deal of respect," Nees said last week from his Howard County home.

Interested in politics since the fifth grade and politically involved since age 13, the high school junior has been primarily involved with partisan politics and support for the Democratic Party. His indianaonmessage.com Web site attempts to be a nonpartisan site for commentary, poll data, spending and, perhaps most interesting, the viewing of television campaign ads. He has more than 100 ads archived and through various means manages to update his site frequently with the latest salvos from Democrats and Republicans.

"I spend an inordinate amount of time on it," he said with a chuckle. "At least 2-3 hours a day. You have to keep it fresh, so it takes time."

The word on the Web site is getting out, at least to political junkies. "It's a niche market, really," Nees said. "Campaign managers, journalists, lobbyists, lawyers. And fellow political junkies."

The site hit its highest daily peak last Wednesday with 700 views. Nees said he's been averaging 15,000-18,000 hits a month - a surprising total, really, considering that he doesn't advertise, and he manages to operate the site and run his own Web design business while maintaining an A average in his high school classes.

He's not especially outraged by the negative tone taken by Democrats and Republicans in the 2006 campaigns. "I don't see it as particularly worse than 2000 or 2004," he said. "But I certainly think it's dispiriting when there are ads that are clearly misleading and manipulative. Ultimately, though, it's democracy at work, and hopefully, at the end of the day, the truth comes through and people can make good decisions."

In Indiana's hotly contested congressional races, Nees sees Democrat Brad Ellsworth beating incumbent John Hostettler in the 8th District, challenger Joe Donnelly ousting Republican incumbent Chris Chocola in the 2nd, and the 9th District race between Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel and former Rep. Baron Hill as too close to call.

"The interesting dynamic has been how the 2nd District has overtaken the 9th in importance. Joe Donnelly has out-raised Baron Hill, and in the national Democrats' eyes, Donnelly has pushed Hill aside. Polls show him up 12 points on Chocola, and I don't see that happening in the 9th," Nees said.

"All three Republicans could win, too. They have a huge structural advantage. But, still, given all of that, they've only been beating the Democrats by inches, and now there's an intensely sour voter mood toward Republicans in general.

"I can't speak of a time in my lifetime when Democrats have been so well positioned to win," the 17-year-old said. "I love it as a political junkie. It's wonderful to be in such a hotly contested state."

Of course, even with all of his knowledge of the issues and experience in politics, Nees can't vote yet. It doesn't frustrate him all that much.

"I've learned there are more effective ways to make a difference beyond the voting booth," he said.

Does he see elective office in his own future? "I don't know. We'll see," he said. "With how nasty the environment is, I'm inclined to stay behind the scenes and be more of an observer than a participant."

At this point in his high school career, Nees hasn't even decided on what college he'll attend. He took an East Coast trip last summer and visited Yale, Brown and Georgetown. "I'm sure I'll be looking at political science as a major. If I go to a state school, then I'm thinking maybe a double major in political science and journalism. And then, possibly law after that.

"Law, journalism and political science," he added as an afterthought. "The three professions America hates most."

Lugar on FOX

Video (Part One) - WMV | Video (Part Two) - WMV

Senator Lugar appeared on Fox News Sunday today to discuss Iraq.

[IN-02] Will the Election Change Course?

Jack Colwell of the South Bend Tribune warned gitty Democrats today that "three weeks can be a lifetime in politics," and Chris Chocola may well pull it out.

...but we've been hearing this from Republicans for months. Hearing that once the mammoth GOP research team unloads their oppo data in negative ads, Democrats would be marginalized. Hearing that when the Republican financial advantage comes to bear, Dems would be pushed back. Hearing that gerrymandering and the GOP's GOTV program would create a firewall protecting the majority.

But in polling, Democrats have only continued to gain ground. GOP attacks (like Chocola's series of property tax ads) have largely bounced off. I'm not seeing Colwell's arguemnt:

Chocola, with more campaign funds, will seek to define Donnelly in less favorable terms and get undecided or wavering voters to conclude that Donnelly is not the change they would want.

Donnelly will not be hurt by "localization" of the race if he can encourage voters to react to the dreaded M-word, "Mitch."

The Toll Road deal of Gov. Mitch Daniels, unpopular in the district, is a factor favorable for Donnelly. Will many voters really in the final analysis cast a vote based on the Toll Road issue? Or on daylight time confusion? If they do, it will hurt Chocola.

Or will voters who have been skeptical about the economy decide that the drop in gas prices, the rise in the stock market and some other good economic news means that a vote for a Republican Congress, specifically a vote for Chocola, would be in their best interests?

Getting out the vote will be crucial. Even if the support is there, it won't matter if the supporters don't actually vote.

What would have happened last Tuesday may or may not happen on Nov. 7.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/22/2006 05:15:00 PM

Welcome Herald Times Folks

Make yourselves comfortable.

~~I actually haven't even read the article ("Kokomo kid's the go-to guy for political junkies") which is likely directing you here, so could one of you kindly send it along? It's not online...~~

[IN-09] Hill, Sodrel on WTHR

Mike Sodrel and Baron Hill both appeared today (in separate interviews) on WTHR's Insiders segment:

Video (Sodrel) - WMV | Video (Hill) - WMV | Video (Pundits) - WMV

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/22/2006 10:03:00 AM

[MPC] IndyStar Endorses Brizzi

They say that the "incumbent has the record and experience needed to serve second term as Marion County prosecutor."

Democratic challenger Melina Kennedy, a former deputy mayor, is a sharp, thoughtful first-time candidate who has gained confidence as she's grown more comfortable with campaigning. Kennedy has pushed incumbent Carl Brizzi with her ideas and with critiques of his performance. Voters should be appreciative of that effort because it underscores what elections are designed to do -- give the public solid choices and push incumbents to address weaknesses.

Brizzi, however, remains the better choice to lead the Prosecutor's Office for the next four years.

The Republican incumbent has built a strong record in his first term, helping drive creation of the Criminal Justice Planning Council, working across party lines to confront issues such as jail overcrowding, and adapting methods to tackle emerging threats such as gang violence and methamphetamine use.

Kennedy has sharply criticized the incumbent's record, but an Indianapolis Star analysis of cases during Brizzi's first term found that his felony conviction rate matches the national average, as determined by a U.S. Department of Justice study.
...
Brizzi does need to address a couple of weaknesses in a second term. It may be impossible to separate entirely politics from the prosecutor's office, but Brizzi at times seems too eager to score political points against his adversaries.

He also is too quick to thrust himself into the center of media attention. He recently, for example, showed up, reporters in tow, to deliver a search warrant to the Marion County Coroner's Office. He also decided this year to prosecute his first death penalty case, the high-profile Hamilton Street murders.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/22/2006 09:20:00 AM

[IN-House] "Scary" Direct Mail in HD-86

Tully laments negative mail:

Oh my. What a choice.

If you vote for Democratic state Rep. David Orentlicher on Nov. 7, your kids will be murdered. And if you vote for Republican challenger Kathryn Densborn, that'll be the end of days for your poor parents, or your loving spouse.
Choices. Choices.

This is like picking between Charles Manson and the Boston Strangler.

Or so it would seem after reading the blather landing in District 86 mailboxes these days. The negative mailers coming out of the Democratic and Republican political parties are so ridiculously negative that they would seem funny -- if not for the corpses and crying children in the photos, that is.
I'm not exaggerating.

This Halloween season, there's no reason to rent a horror flick. If you're in the mood for some death and gore, just browse through the latest campaign mail in District 86.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-House at 10/22/2006 09:11:00 AM

[IN-02] Second District Debate

Chocola and Donnelly again faced off in a debate last night:

The two did spar on Medicare Part D, with Chocola praising the legislation as lowering prescription drug costs for millions of senior citizens, and Donnelly highlighting the coverage gap, or "doughnut hole" that he said could have been addressed by including a price negotiation plan.

They also offered differing assessments of Iraq, with Chocola emphasizing the political progress made since the U.S. invasion, and Donnelly highlighting ongoing violence and security issues.

Although both candidates professed their moderation and avoided major policy differences, each questioned his opponent's ability to deliver, implying that the opponent was too connected to other groups.

Donnelly contended that Chocola was too close to the Bush administration and a compliant, Republican-controlled Congress.

"We need a tough congressman who will ask tough questions so we can get a resolution in Iraq," he said during his closing statement. "So ask yourself, are you better off now than you were two years ago?"

But Chocola countered by questioning the kind of change Donnelly said he'd bring, saying that Donnelly would vote to make Pelosi speaker of the U.S. House, thereby supporting her "left-leaning agenda."

"It's more important what you do than what you say," Chocola said during his closing statement.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/22/2006 09:09:00 AM

NYTimes Profiles Big Three

Story:

What is happening here in the Crossroads of America?

Just standard election year politics, say Republicans, in a state with a history of close races and of electing some Democrats (two of its nine members of Congress are Democrats, as is one senator). It is more than that, say Democrats, portraying Indianans as unusually disaffected and predicting that their party will make significant gains.

Ed Feigenbaum, editor of The Indiana Legislative Insight, a nonpartisan newsletter, said the situation reflected the nation's souring mood.

"People are unhappy everywhere," Mr. Feigenbaum said. "And incumbents suffer when they think the country is heading in the wrong direction."

It is not that candidates in the three competitive districts differ substantially on issues that matter most to voters. But their styles are different, as is the political company they keep, as each often reminds voters.

Republicans warn that Democratic victories will mean liberal leadership in Congress, while Democrats say their opponents support failed policies. The overwhelmingly negative advertisements on both sides have focused on personalities, moral values, party allegiances and help for veterans.

Voters seem focused on larger matters. From the hills of New Albany near the Kentucky border to the gray streets of Mishawaka near the Michigan border, scores of voters in the three districts said in interviews that they were uneasy about Iraq, illegal immigration, the economy and the cost of health care.

Some said they feared that gasoline prices would rise again, while others complained about lobbyists. None cited the resignation of Representative Mark Foley over his e-mail exchanges with Congressional pages, though many Republicans were concerned that unhappiness about moral lapses in Washington might depress turnout among Christian conservatives.

Some spoke about local issues, but national matters, especially Iraq, prevailed.

"Iraq is seen as a failed Republican policy that isn't working and costing money," said Brian Vargus, a professor of political science at Indiana University in Indianapolis.

"That really resonates with Hoosiers," Mr. Vargus said. "They are very patriotic, feel that the American military is very efficient so someone is doing something wrong."

[IN-09] Will Schansberg Steal Votes from Sodrel?

A challenge from the right could syphen off disaffected Republicans:

While Savage is correct that Libertarians have run for the 9th District seat many times in the past, most agree that Schansberg is a different kind of threat.
A party source gives Schansberg his due.

"I think he's going to show better," said Al Cox, the Libertarian who ran for the 9th District seat in the 2002 and 2004 elections. Cox took 1.3 percent of the vote in 2002 and 1.5 percent of the vote in 2004.

Cox said Schansberg is far more visible than he ever was.
"I was relatively unknown," he said.

While Cox did get a chance to debate with the major party candidates both years, the only advertising he had were two billboards. Both were in somewhat rural areas along Interstate 65.

Schansberg has spent thousands on both newspaper and radio advertisements. According to recent Federal Elections Commission data, he still has close to $9,000 left to spend with only a few weeks to go before the election.

And he has something Cox never had -- a campaign staff.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/21/2006 08:39:00 AM

[MPC] Brizzi Has 3-1 CoH Advantage, Has Raised Twice as Much

Brizzi continues to far outraise Kennedy, according to recent finance reports. He has $600,000 CoH; Kennedy has about $204,000. The Republican incumbent's raised $2.4 million this cycle, compared to Kennedy's $1.1 million.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/21/2006 08:34:00 AM

[IN-House] Democrats Reach Near Financial Parity with GOP

Or perhaps as close to it as they'll ever come.

The Republicans reported raising $1.9 million this year, with $2.6 million total this election cycle. They had spent $2.1 million this year and had $502,000 in cash on hand.

The Democrats reported raising $1.1 million this year, with $1.7 million total this election cycle. They had spent $1.4 million this year and had $307,500 cash on hand.
...
House Minority Leader B. Patrick Bauer, D-South Bend, has so far outraised House Speaker Brian C. Bosma, R-Indianapolis. Bauer had raised $546,912 this election cycle, spending $69,862. He had cash on hand of $474,485.

Bosma had raised $436,343 this election cycle, spent only $16,315 and had cash on hand of $420,028.

Both legislative leaders generally use their campaign funds to support other candidates in their caucus.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-House at 10/21/2006 08:31:00 AM

Congressional Quarterly Ups Rating of IN-03

It's gone from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored."

CQPolitics.com also is making the ratings change in part because of Hayhurst's recent robust fundraising -- which contrasts with Souder's longstanding distaste for raising campaign cash.
...
On Wednesday, a luncheon forum at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., featured top officials of the parties' national House campaign organizations: New York Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds, who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, and Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, a proxy for Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel of Illinois. And Indiana’s 3rd was mentioned in a question about the growing number of competitive districts that Republicans are defending.

Reynolds praised Souder's ability at grass-roots campaigning, describing him as an "exceptionally strong 'retail' candidate." But he did not contend that Indiana's 3rd would be an easy win. "Indiana has been a challenge for the Republicans," Reynolds said. "I think Mark Souder is doing very well. ... He's working hard, as is Chris Chocola and Mike Sodrel. We've never said they would be easy races."

[IN-08] Eighth Feed

- This crazy model defies every poll ever taken in the Eighth. Rriighhtt...

- This article about a shady attack ad in the Eighth seems long over due---I posted a news clip (WATCH) on this very story last week...

What is known about Americans for Honesty on Issues is that its executive officer, Sue Walden, is a Houston-based Republican lobbyist, political consultant and fundraiser who has worked with a variety of Texas political figures and once lobbied for Enron Corp.

Texas media accounts have linked Walden to President Bush, former Rep. Tom DeLay and Enron founder Kenneth Lay.

Americans for Honesty on Issues is financing television ad campaigns against several Democratic House candidates nationwide, reportedly at a combined cost of more than $1 million.

Ellsworth's spokesman, Matt Weisman, said the group's anti-Ellsworth ad is "the last, desperate attempt by associates of Tom DeLay and Ken Lay to prevent voters in southwest Indiana from changing the way Washington works."

- Ellsworth wanted Hostettler to forfeit his guaranteed lowest unit charge for violating FCC rules... I actually wondered about this very scenario last month, when Rick Santorum's campaign was also in danger of not receiving the lowest unit charge for its ads because he similarly failed to put his "I approve this message" disclaimer at the END of the ad, an FCC rule for the last sixty days of the campaign.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/20/2006 10:17:00 AM

[MPC] Kennedy Losing Badly

Carl Brizzi is pulling away from Melina Kennedy, according to a new WTHR/Selzer & Co. poll of 600 LVs. Brizzi is leading Kennedy 51-35%, with a MoE of +/- 5%.

Interstingly, the poll also shows 7th CD challenger Eric Dickerson neck-and-neck with Julia Carson, 45-42%. Obvious bad news for Kennedy: 7% of Carson's supporters are falling off. But if the Carson team legitimately believes the race is competitive, the data might help gin up a famous GOTV machine that could recoup that 7% for the down-ballot Democrat... But is anyone really surprised by the numbers? Kennedy's television presence has been miserable, and the ads have been an insult to the donors that have shelled out millions expecting that Kennedy, as a talented Deputy Mayor, could capitalize on rising crime, a heavily Democratic environment, and a trending-Democratic county. Thus far, even with so many strategic and structural advantages, she's failed. This poll data should only further discourage Kennedy's fundraising base, and worsen the already-growing disparity in television points...

Meanwhile, Tully used the data to justify another column adoring Eric Dickerson.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/20/2006 09:40:00 AM

Catch-up Blogging

Sorry about the lazy blogging in the last few days. It's been busy...

- Evan Bayh isn't contributing his dues to the DSCC, and Democrats are getting pissed.

- The Courier Press "fact checks" John Hostettler's ad on immigration.

- Evan Bayh is quietly wooing labor. It's still nothing compared to John Edwards, though the WaPo says Bayh's efforts "continue to impress."

- Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Green is running an ad featuring the Honda plant Indiana snagged, beating out other states in the region, including Wisconsin. Previously, another Republican challenger (Dick DeVos in Michigan) used the same plant to critique the economic development record of a sitting Democratic governor. Watch Green's ad.

- MoveOn is coming to the aid of Baron Hill, spending just over $10,000 dollars for voter file upgrades and targetting data.

- The DCCC is spending $15,830 in IN-02 for direct mail.

- Does this expenditure say anything about a dispirited GOP base? The NRCC is hiring phone bankers to oppose Baron Hill. $36,964 worth of phone banks.

- 10/18: The NRCC paid $8,460 to Anthem Media for ad production opposing Baron Hill and $5,778 to Arena Communications for direct mail opposing Hill as well.

- 10/17: The DCCC bought $336,835 worth of media time to oppose Mike Sodrel. $6,733 for mail opposing Sodrel, $6,733 for mail supporting Hill. $171,449 for a media buy opposing Hostettler. $114,021 for air time opposing Chris Chocola. $13,925 to produce more ads attacking John Hostettler.

[IN-02] Who Does Chris Chocola Take Money From?

Chris Chocola dramatically charges in a new ad today that Joe Donnelly takes campaign cash from lobbyists. So who does Chris Chocola take money from?

How about a man who, "according to recently filed court documents, [is] a porn-loving, adulterous, abusive drunk who likes to advertise on Craig's List for three-ways and anal sex and takes naked pictures of himself standing at attention."

According to RADAR, Craig T. Schelske, the "husband and former manager to Nashville singer and Dancing With the Stars contestant Sara Evans" is "also a failed Republican congressional candidate, the executive director of American Destiny, which seeks to teach children about 'the role of God and Christianity in America's story,' and chairman of CRAIGPAC, a vanity political action committee that gives to Republican candidates." Evans's divorce complaint is here.

Besides Chocola, Schelske has also given to Brian Bilbray, Duke Cunningham, George Allen, Michele Bachmann, and Rep. Thelma Drake.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/18/2006 04:21:00 PM

NRCC Spends in IN-02, IN-09; Bloody Eighth Off the List

The NRCC made over seventy payments yesterday in key races across the country, but the Bloody Eighth was notably left off of the list. The Donnelly campaign believes that the NRCC pulled out of the Second last week, and this latest poll may indicate that the NRCC is contemplating just that.

- $9,555 to poll the Second for Chocola. The pollster is Public Opinion Strategies.
- Three payments of $7,980 to Anthem Media for ad production opposing Baron Hill.

Today's Ind. Exp.

The DCCC paid Murphy Putnam Shorr & Partners $8,731 for ad production opposing Chocola, and $10,745 to GMMB to oppose Mike Sodrel...

The National Right to Life PAC is running radio ads in support of John Hostettler, totaling $7,770. They also paid EU Services $2,695 for printing
supporting the Congressman, and $449 for postage.

3Q Financing Roundup

The tables at right have been updated.

[IN-08] Congressman Brad Ellsworth

The Howey Political Report:

Informed and reliable 8th CD Republican sources are telling HPR that U.S. Rep. John Hostettler has essentially given up on his re-election bid. The sources say that Hostettler has informed key Republican allies in Vanderburgh County that he is suspending most of his campaign activities. The sources tell HPR that he came to this conclusion in the last couple weeks. However, he has not been keeping a heavy campaign schedule for much of the fall campaign season. He did not campaign over the tradtional political rollout Labor Day weekend. When the PBS Lehrer Newshour sought out his campaign schedule prior to a mid-September weekend, they were told that Hostettler had no events planned. The sources tell HPR that Hostettler's realization of his bleak re-election prospects prompted him to put more energy into his subcommittee hearings on immigration.

Hostettler was also the only Republican Congressional delegation Member to bypass the Indiana GOP's ROMP event at the Columbia Club on Saturday, Oct. 7. The National Republican Campaign Committee has suspended its activites in the 8th CD, after a number of polls showed Democratic Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth with a growing lead.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/16/2006 06:06:00 PM

[IN-09] Ninth Feed: "Gazillionaire" Sodrel, IndyStar Endorsement, Mailers

- A sampling of some of the mail that's being sent in the Ninth:

"Baron Hill will turn our values upside down," screams one piece mailed by the Indiana Republican State Committee and featuring an upside-down and bloated-looking photo of the Democrat.
...
"Mike Sodrel. He's in the pocket of the Big Boys," states a piece mailed by Hill's campaign.
...
"Millionaire Mike Sodrel's shameful votes against troops and veterans are a disgrace," the ad reads. "Our troops and veterans deserve to be treated with honor."
...
One refers to the Democrat as Baron "Capitol" Hill and accuses him of being "Washington's poster boy."

- Mike Sodrel is one of the 50 richest members of Congress, with assets of $6.6 million dollars.

- He also won the endorsement of the Indianapolis Star today:

Sodrel has a good understanding of issues facing the district and nation and offers thoughtful approaches on everything from fighting terrorism to controlling illegal immigration.

Sodrel, a member of the House transportation committee, points to a higher proportion of federal transportation dollars returning to Indiana as a major success during his first term.
...
Sodrel, after only two years in office, has shown solid growth in the position. He's earned a second term.

- Sylvia Smith says Republicans might well win all three CDs in Indiana, and "gazillionaire" Sodrel might spend down some of his fortune to do it.

- The DCCC is up with a new ad in the Indianapolis media market (and presumably Louisville, though I haven't confirmed) claiming Sodrel is making the "Washington mess" worse.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/15/2006 09:27:00 AM

[MPC] IndyStar Blankets MCP Coverage

- The Indianapolis Star ran two concurrent profiles of the two candidates for Marion County Prosecutor... Links: Kennedy Profile | Brizzi Profile | Interviews with Editorial Board | Peterson's Endorsements | PDF of Front Page

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/15/2006 08:48:00 AM

[IN-08] Bloody Eighth Feed

This Courier Press story puts Andrea Ellsworth's speeding ticket in a whole new light...Not only did the Republican prosecutor allow others in the program who exceeded the speed of Ellsworth, but he cited an unwritten and suddenly changed policy to justify forbidding Ellsworth's daughter from the deferment program. Armed with no fewer than five tickets others had received, who were admitted into the program, Ellsworth was right to call and ask questions not for special treatment, but because of just the opposite: derisive treatment that his family was receiving...More reason to think this is political: it happened a year and half ago. Why's this slimy Republican prosecutor going to the press now?

- Did Hostettler vote to raise his own pay? It's confusing as hell for editorial writers, according to the Courier Press.

- "If the election were held today, Hostettler would lose," according to another questionable poll from the Courier Press, which is projecting a 55-32% Ellsworth lead. It says Ellsworth's base is more motivated by national concerns than is Hostettler's.

- The Indianapolis Star was positively glowing about Brad Ellsworth in their endorsement of him today: "Ellsworth astutely presents himself as an alternative to the incivility and partisanship that have afflicted Congress and colored some of Hostettler's rhetoric. Ellsworth would be more likely to embrace the compromise efforts on immigration that Hostettler rigidly opposes. And he vows to bring to Washington the budgetary discipline he has had to observe in local public office. He deserves the opportunity."

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/15/2006 08:38:00 AM

[IN-08] More GOP Attacks on Ellsworth's Family

Perhaps this came from Hostettler's entire binder full of opposition research on Ellsworth's daughter:

Weeks before an election that could help change control of Congress, Republicans in southern Indiana's 8th District accused Democrat Brad Ellsworth of using his position as a sheriff to pressure a prosecutor to drop a speeding ticket against his daughter.

Boyd Toler, the Republican prosecutor in Pike County, said Ellsworth called him after the candidate's daughter, Andrea, was stopped for speeding last year.

"He was pretty persistent. I finally told him that I treat everybody the same," Toler said Saturday. "I received the distinct impression that he was asking for it to be dismissed because of his position."

Ellsworth, the Democratic challenger to Republican incumbent John Hostettler in 8th District congressional race, is the sheriff of Vanderburgh County, about 15 miles away from Pike County.

Toler said Andrea Ellsworth was stopped on March 6, 2005 - two months before Ellsworth declared his candidacy - for driving 83 mph in a 55 mph zone. Toler said the speed exceeded the 79 mph to qualify for a deferment program.

Ellsworth denied asking to have the ticket dropped and said he only asked if his daughter qualified for the program, which is an option open to most ticketed motorists in Indiana to help them protect their driving records.

Ellsworth also objected to Republicans raising the accusation with less than a month remaining before the Nov. 7 election.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/14/2006 05:32:00 PM

[IN-09] Sodrel Raises $431,418, Ends 3Q With $1,072,320 CoH

The FEC report was filed yesterday.

Sodrel raised (net) $431,418, and spent (net, excluding refunds for contributions, which aren't included in the receipt totals) $486,720. Sodrel also has a huge pile of debt--$251,927. More than half of his receipts came from PACs ($219,048), and fewer from individuals, $212,780.

The Republican began the quarter with $1,138,747, and ended it with $1,072,320.

Finance totals at right have been updated. Hill, Ellsworth, Chocola, and Donnelly have yet to file their reports.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/14/2006 04:39:00 PM

[IN-08] Hostettler Raises $165,252 During 3Q, Has $269,704 CoH

That's on par with, but slightly below, his 2Q results. Hostettler's campaign filed the report with the FEC 10/11.

He ended the second quarter with $195,146 CoH and increased that sum to $269,704 by the end of the third. $16,950 of his fundraising totals came from PACs. His spending, up from about $30k in 2Q, amounted to $90,894. $55,356 of that went to advertising.

His current CoH bests both what he had at the end of 3Q in 2004 ($135,134) and in 2002 ($223,233). 2006 receipts ($165,452) also slightly out-performed 2004 ($164,844) and 2002 ($99,786) as well.

The financing table at right has been updated.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/14/2006 04:24:00 PM

[IN-02] IWIR, Fries Ad

Video - WMV

The Indiana Week in Review Panel on IN-02 and Laura Bush's visit.

Video - WMV

"Sense" - Republican Ken Fries, candidate for sheriff in Allen County.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/14/2006 11:38:00 AM

How the Fix Ranks Indiana's CDs

The lowest of the big three was the Ninth, at #14, down one spot from the last round:

Nowhere is the fight over the Foley imbroglio nastier than in this southern Indiana seat. Former Rep. Baron Hill began the tussle with an ad pointing out that Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) had accepted thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from House leaders including Speaker Dennis Hastert (Ill.) Sodrel hit back with an ad in which the incumbent says: "Baron Hill's attack ads blaming me for the Mark Foley mess are the biggest lie yet." Hill is hoping that by raising questions about Sodrel's (and Republicans') ethics he can discredit them as a messenger on values issues, which are all-important in this district.

Is the Ninth replacing IN-02 as the lowest Indiana priority for Democrats? When pollster Stan Greenberg (who polled IN-02 for the DCCC last week, showing a 16-point Donnelly edge) teamed up with James Carville to take the collective pulse of 49-GOP held contested CDs, IN-09 was stuck in tier two.

Perhaps the analysis of IN-02 is prescient, but isn't the conventional wisdom to veer away from negative campaigning when you're cruising towards reelection?

Rep. Chris Chocola (R) sowed the seeds of his likely defeat in November almost two years ago. Democrat Joe Donnelly was running an underfunded effort against the incumbent, but rather than run a series of negative ads designed to destroy Donnelly, Chocola largely ignored him. The result? Donnelly built up his name identification and favorable ratings -- positioning him perfectly to beat Chocola this time in a vastly different political environment. A new Democrat-sponsored poll showed Donnelly ahead 52 percent to 36 percent. Chocola's own poll had him down 45 percent to 44 percent. Either way, it doesn't look good for the incumbent.

Hostettler's campaign is all but over:

Rep. John Hostettler's campaign isn't showing any signs of life. Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) continues to hold a double-digit lead, and the question now seems to be when the National Republican Congressional Committee will decide to pull out.

Friday's Ind. Exps.

The DCCC is ramping up their direct mail in Indiana, spending nearly $40,000 on it Friday alone.

- $6,733 to the Baughman Company, in support of Baron Hill.
- $6,733 to the Baughman Company, in opposition to Mike Sodrel.
- $9,450 to the Strategy Group for negative mail against Hostettler.
- $15,190 to the Mack Crounse Group for negative mail opposing Chris Chocola.

The NRCC paid $5,778 to Arena Communications for negative mail against Baron Hill and spent $399,164 for a negative media buy opposing him as well.

[IN-09] Sodrel Uses Right to Life Endorsement to Push Abortion

Mike Sodrel is pushing abortion:

Republican Incumbent Mike Sodrel held two press conferences Friday -- one in Jeffersonville, one in Jasper -- touting the endorsement he picked up from Right to Life PAC.

Sodrel said the endorsement was significant to him because he considers preventing abortions a top priority.

"It is our duty as a government and as a society to protect the lives of those who are the most vulnerable among us," Sodrel said.

Meanwhile, Democratic Party challenger Baron Hill went to Jasper earlier this week with former Indiana Congressman Tim Roemer to hold a town hall meeting to discuss the 95-10 Initiative.

The 95-10 proposal seeks to reduce the number of abortions by 95 percent in the next 10 years.

"I am against abortions," Hill said. He has said in the past that it should be safe and legal but rare.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/14/2006 10:16:00 AM

[IN-02] Dropped Ad Mistakenly Continues to Run

The mistake apparently only happened once:

The ad, sponsored by a group called Americans for Honesty on Issues, concerned Democratic congressional challenger Joe Donnelly's position on taxes and was denounced as "untrue and misleading" by Donnelly spokeswoman Katie Nee.

The ad was dropped earlier in the week by WSBT-TV, according to station general manager John Mann, who said the claims made in its audio portion were not supported by cited sources.

The odd twist came when The Tribune, while preparing a story, asked Brooks Kochvar, a spokesman for U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola, R-2nd, to comment on the decision to pull the ad.

Kochvar's response was to say that he had just seen the commercial on WSBT-TV, and that it was running on other local stations as well.

When told of the situation, Mann launched an investigation of his own. He initially concluded that the ad had continued to run because of an internal processing involving recently installed software.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/14/2006 10:09:00 AM

[IN-09] More Automated Calls Lawsuits

Now a Democratic group, which has been making calls against Mike Sodrel, has filed suit against the state of Indiana. A previous suit, filed by the Economic Freedom Fund, which made calls attacking Baron Hill, is still pending.

A Washington-based organization is asking a federal court to block enforcement of an Indiana law that bans automated prerecorded phone calls.

American Family Voices on Friday filed a complaint in U.S. District Court in Indianapolis, arguing the ban violates the federal Constitution and interstate commerce laws and should not apply to calls made for political purposes.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/14/2006 10:04:00 AM

[IN-08] Brad Ellsworth's "High Hotness Quotient"

The Washington Post put the Vanderburgh County Sheriff on the front page (PDF of WaPo) today, exhibit A in a whole field of Democratic candidates with a "high hotness quotient."

Attractive politicians have an edge over not-so-attractive ones. The phenomenon is resonating especially this year. By a combination of luck and design, Democrats seem to be fielding an uncommonly high number of uncommonly good-looking candidates.

The beauty gap between the parties, some on Capitol Hill muse, could even be a factor in who controls Congress after Election Day.

Democratic operatives do not publicly say that they went out of their way this year to recruit candidates with a high hotness quotient. Privately, however, they acknowledge that, as they focused on finding the most dynamic politicians to challenge vulnerable Republicans, it did not escape their notice that some of the most attractive prospects were indeed often quite attractive.

There is a certain logic to the trend. Back in 1994, when Republicans seized power in Congress from Democrats, the GOP had a number of fresh-faced challengers who knocked off incumbents who had grown worse for wear after years of committee hearings and fundraising receptions.

This year, it is the Democrats who have several ripe opportunities to unseat Republicans, some of whom have grown gray and portly during their years in power.

...

The list is decidedly unscientific, but it includes several whose names come up often on Capitol Hill for reasons other than their policy platforms. Among those on it, in addition to Arcuri, are Brad Ellsworth, a swaggering Indiana sheriff.

...

The crop of eye-pleasing pols has party operatives calculating the politics of beauty. "There's a fine line, and you can't cross it," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Voters don't like men who look like pretty boys or women who resemble bimbos. "If you're too good-looking, people won't take you seriously," Emanuel said.

Carl Forti, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, agreed that attractive candidates often have an early advantage. But he said voters' decisions in the polling booth are rarely skin-deep, especially in a closely contested race.

"When each side is spending four or five million, people know the records, and it doesn't have the same impact," he said. He noted that Shuler's popularity has declined in recent weeks following reports that his real estate firm was late in paying taxes. "That's gone back to being a close race."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/14/2006 09:43:00 AM

[IN-08] Rush of Videos in the Eighth

Unfortunately, I don't have the time at the moment to make ad profiles for all of these videos, but I posted three in the flash player. Also, here's a DCCC mailer that's attacking John Hostettler.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/13/2006 06:03:00 AM

[IN-02] Interpreting New Poll Data

The Indianapolis Star is billing the newest Majority Watch poll as a GOP gain:

An automated telephone survey this month of 989 voters in Indiana's 2nd District found Chocola with 46 percent support compared with 50 percent for Democrat challenger Joe Donnelly. A similar survey conducted a month early showed 40 percent for Chocola and 52 percent for Donnelly.

"He has made tremendous progress," said Thom Riehle, partner in RT Strategies Inc., one of the two research groups running the project.

Riehle said Chocola's improvement was strong enough that Majority Watch may decide to see if there's been similar movement in southern Indiana.

Their early September poll in southwestern Indiana found 45 percent support for Rep. John Hostettler, R-Wadesville, compared with 51 percent of respondents who planned to vote for Democratic challenger Brad Ellsworth.

In southeastern Indiana, Rep. Mike Sodrel had 42 percent support compared with Democratic challenger Baron Hill's 53 percent.

"This is the first we've seen a strong recovery by any of these guys," Riehle said of Chocola's improvement this month.

But even though Chocola's numbers are moving in the right direction, Riehle said getting back to the lead is "certainly a tough row to hoe" as "there's not much time left."

I'm not sure just how to read these numbers yet. Unfortunately, no one independent pollster has polled the district more than twice (this second round of data from Majority Watch is the only time that's been done), so it's difficult to get good relative comparisons amongst differing pollsters with differing formulas. Here's a handy chart tracking the race so far:

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/12/2006 07:50:00 PM

[IN-02] In 15 Minutes, Laura Bush Raises $210,000 for Chocola

AP:

"It's very important Chris be re-elected," Bush said. "President Bush has an ambitious agenda for the rest of his time in Washington. ... We must have serious national conversations conducted in civility and respect, and Chris Chocola is a positive and powerful part of that dialogue."

Bush, a popular campaign-booster for Republicans across the country, began a four-state swing Wednesday with a fundraiser for six-term Ohio congressman Steve Chabot, who is in a heated re-election battle. She raised $170,000 at a luncheon for him.

She then headed to Knoxville, Tenn., to raise money for Republican Senate candidate Bob Corker. After Indiana, she was heading to Missouri for GOP candidates.

Chocola, a two-term congressman, told the 700 people who spent $100 to attend the event - $2,000 to have their photo taken with the first lady - that the race was extremely close and there's a lot at stake.

"The Democrats think the road to the majority is running right through Indiana, and I think they're right," Chocola said. "But when they get here, with your help, they'll see a big 'Do Not Enter' sign."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/12/2006 07:35:00 PM

[IN-09] "Ad War"

Video - WMV

RTV6 on the "ad war" in Indiana's Ninth. No ads you haven't seen before (on IOM, anyway), but the clip includes interviews with both Hill and Sodrel.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/12/2006 06:54:00 PM

[IN-02] Chocola Stirs Base, Women Still Undecided

Indiana's Second is tightening, according to numbers released today by Majority Watch, a polling project of RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics.

Republican Chris Chocola has managed to whip up his base to parity with Donnelly's "strong" hierarchical numbers, upping it by ten whole points since the last Majority Watch poll in September, while marginalizing his "weak" voters by four points. In contrast, Donnelly's "weak" numbers increased by two points, and his "strong" numbers dropped by four. The Democrat's Voter Motivation Index rating remained the same, and Chris Chocola increased his base's rating by eight-tenths of a point.

It's clear the race will be decided outside of St. Joseph County, where the contest is dead even, 48-48%. The Granger Democrat is decisively leading by ten points in St. Joseph County, his geographic base.

66% of Chocola's weak base is made up of men; in September, men only accounted for 44% of the Republican's leaners. Women now make up the bulk of undecided voters; previously at 49% of all undecideds, women now make up 66% of those voters. Women continue to break for Donnelly in sum, 52-43%, though down from 55-38% in September. Men have upped their support for Chocola, at 43-49% in September, now at 49-47%.

Crosstabs: September | October

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/12/2006 03:54:00 PM

[IN-02] Donnelly By Four

Joe Donnelly is up by four points, 50-46%, in the second round of Constituent Dynamics/RT Strategies Majority Watch polling... Results from IN-08 & IN-09 are fourthcoming, but not available yet. Further analysis coming soon.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/12/2006 03:05:00 PM

[MPC] Has Brizzi Found an Opening with Amnesty?

The IndyStar says the issue "dominated" the debate (video):

The hourlong debate was the second of four scheduled in a prosecutor's race that has drawn more interest than usual with the absence of other tight local races. Nearly $3 million has been poured into the race, enabling both campaigns to blanket the airwaves with TV ads. It has become the most expensive prosecutor's race on record.

Audience members wrote questions on cards in advance about topics including the death penalty, illegal immigrants who commit crimes and the office's role in prosecuting misdeeds in state government.

One question alluded to charges filed Wednesday against Indiana Pacers player Stephen Jackson. Both candidates said public figures should receive the same treatment as everyone else.

Both also pledged to serve a full four-year term.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/12/2006 02:57:00 PM

[MPC] Second Debate

Video - WMV

Clips from WTHR's coverage of the second MCP debate.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/12/2006 02:55:00 PM

[IN-02] Majority Action Abandons Second

The ad is now off air:

"We used some of that money to up our buy elsewhere," Buck said, adding that the group felt that, strategically, the money could be better used in other areas of the country.

With Chocola reportedly behind in some district polls, the comment seemed to imply that the group saw no point in further attacking the incumbent Republican, although Buck declined to comment on that aspect.
...
Jaquint, who confirmed that Majority Action wanted to drop the ad on its own, said the ad buy was only for a few thousand dollars. "It wasn't that much money," he said.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/12/2006 06:05:00 AM

DCCC Spends $676,475 in Indiana

The ad buys, as well as direct mail, encompassed all of the big three:

- $180,418 to Great American Media for a media buy in support of Baron Hill.
- $180,418 to Great American Media for a media buy in opposition to Mike Sodrel.
- $13,465 to The Baughman Company for mail opposing Mike Sodrel.
- $4,725 to The Strategy Group for mail supporting Brad Ellsworth.
- $4,725 to The Strategy Group for mail opposing John Hostettler.
- $160,398 to Great American Media for an ad buy opposing John Hostettler.
- $3,150 to AKP Message & Media for ad production opposing Hostettler.
- $7,595 to Mack Crounse Group, LLC for mail opposing Chris Chocola.
- $7,595 to Mack Crounse Group, LLC for mail supporting Joe Donnelly.
- $113,986 to Great American Media for an ad buy opposing Chris Chocola.

NRCC Drops $32,386 in Indiana Today

The NRCC spent on the behalf of embattled Hoosier Republicans in every one of the big three today:

- $8,235 to the Tarrance Group to commission a poll for Mike Sodrel
- $8,973 to Stevens, Reed, Curcio, & Potholm for issue ad production opposing Brad Ellsworth
- $7,480 to Marsh Copsey & Associates for issue ad production opposing Joe Donnelly
- $5,778 to Arena Communications for direct mail opposing Baron Hill
- $1,920 to Anthem Media Inc. for ad production opposing Baron Hill

Republicans Worried About Souder

The NRCC's first expenditure in the 3rd, on a poll which I reported first last night, has now drawn the ire of Maureen Groppe:

The National Republican Congressional Committee spent $8,235 on a survey on behalf of U.S. Rep. Mark Souder, according to disclosure reports.

NRCC spokesman Ed Patru, however, said the polling doesn't indicate signs of GOP trouble in northeastern Indiana.

"It's not at all unusual for party committees to check up on a race to see what's going on," he said.

Although the national Democratic Party hasn't yet put Souder on its target list, a spokeswoman for the campaign arm of House Democrats said Republicans should be worried.

"The current environment is certainly detrimental to Republicans," said Adrienne Elrod, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "Americans everywhere want a new direction and this is certainly a district that is reflective of that.

[MPC] All About Amnesty --- And Not for Immigrants

Matt Tully trashes Melina Kennedy's "amnesty" plan:

In a race where both candidates are obsessed with being seen as "tough," Brizzi couldn't have asked for more.

"These are not the types of criminals we need to give second and third chances to," he said with typical showmanship. "What we want to do is make Indianapolis as inhospitable as possible for these guys."

The problem for Kennedy is Brizzi has effectively bashed her lack of prosecutorial experience for weeks. Her proposing "a get-out-of-jail-free card," as Brizzi called it, gave him another chance to point to that issue.

"Only someone who has never prosecuted a gang member would propose something like this," he said.

In a race this big, each candidate will have bad days. Brizzi's had a few. Monday was Kennedy's turn.

Her response was weak. She defended her gang proposal but tried to downplay it by insisting it was only a "concept." She said the "concept" was aimed at "taking down the whole gang infrastructure by trying to peel away the young wannabes" and getting them to "testify against the gang leaders."

She wouldn't say what level of crimes would be forgiven but pointed to offenses such as carrying a handgun illegally.

Reality check. How many gang "wannabes" will take the stand and testify against gang leaders in exchange for dropping a minor charge?

Even using the word "amnesty" seems to me foolish, considering the millions that Republicans are spending attacking Democrats on immigration. Carl Brizzi ably seized on the issue today, generating some press and sending out this e-mail:

Having gang members write on the blackboard "I will not be a gang member" is not an effective way to deal with our city's growing gang problem. We need real leadership that won't hand out free passes to gun-toting gang members. Carl Brizzi was the Chief of Gang Prosecution under Scott Newman and last year helped pass a new law that doubles the jail time for gang members convicted of certain crimes.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/11/2006 03:32:00 PM

[IN-08] AFSCME on TV

AFSCME is finally paying to air ads that they had the Campaign Group produce last month (at a cost of $5,000)...They're spending $141,765 on the media buy, which targets John Hostettler.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/11/2006 03:12:00 PM

[IN-02] Campaigns Release Partisan Polls

The South Bend Tribune reports on two partisan polls released today (I've posted the results at right in the poll section):

The poll, taken Oct. 4 and 5 by the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research company of Hartford, Conn., showed Donnelly with a 52 percent lead to Chocola's 36 percent, with a plus-or-minus 4.6 percent margin for error and a sampling of 400 likely voters.

Burton said the poll showed Chocola with a 36 percent positive and 61 percent negative job approval rating.

Chocola spokesman Brooks Kochvar said an Oct. 9 poll taken by Mercury Public Affairs, a New York City company, showed a much different result.

That poll showed the race in a virtual dead heat, with Donnelly ahead of Chocola by a 44.7 to 44 percent margin, with 11.3 percent undecided.

According to Kochvar, Mercury surveyed 300 likely voters and the poll had a plus-or-minus 5.65 percent margin for error.

"We take polls to understand reality, not to make us feel good," Kochvar said. "Clearly their poll makes them feel good, but it has no basis in reality."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/11/2006 03:06:00 PM

[IN-02] Majority Action to Target Chocola

The interest group ads will drop soon:

One Democratic 527 group, Majority Action, announced this week that it would run advertisements in four Congressional districts criticizing incumbent Republican House members for voting against federal financing for stem cell research.

The advertisements will focus on Representatives Chris Chocola of Indiana, Thelma Drake of Virginia, Don Sherwood of Pennsylvania and James T. Walsh of New York.

Total spending on the 60-second advertisements will be about $500,000, said Bill Buck, spokesman for Majority Action. The group’s founders include Joe Andrew and Don Fowler, former chairmen of the Democratic National Committee.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/11/2006 06:15:00 AM

[IN-08] NRCC Still On Board

Despite indications that the GOP might pull out of the Eighth, the NRCC dropped $149,791 on a media buy (to Strategic Media Services) today opposing Brad Ellsworth.

Also: interestingly, the NRCC is now polling Indiana's third CD, paying $8,235 to the Tarrance Group.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/10/2006 08:09:00 PM

At the HPR Forum: Lugar on North Korea Nuclear Test

Video - WMV

Dick Lugar visited Indianapolis today to speak at the Howey Political Report Forum, an extraordinary event that brought together the Senator, Rep. Mike Pence, and 9/11 Commissioner Timothy Roemer. WTHR filed this report.

[IN-08] FOP, GOP, WAPO

Ellsworth won the endorsement of the FOP:

On Monday at local FOP headquarters, Indiana State Lodge FOP Chairman David Cook said his 14,000-member organization is proud to support Ellsworth's campaign.

"Seldom do we find a candidate of Brad's caliber, his integrity and leadership to hold the 8th District for Congress," Cook said.

Ellsworth said Congress "needs to listen to local law enforcement."

"When the federal government does come in to help, we need to listen to these people - the people on the ground, the people in our local jurisdictions that know their residents and know what they need to do their jobs," he said.

"... These are experts. They know what they need, and we in the federal government need to listen to them. It's not always being done right now."

Are Republicans giving up on John Hostettler? Shella says:

The word from state Republican Headquarters is that Congressman John Hostettler has "taken control of his own message." If that's not code for "he's on his own," it is, at the very least, an indication that some of the state and national resources that the GOP earmarked for the Hostettler race are being redirected to one or both of the other targeted congressional races in Indiana.

The political editor for Human Events, a far right conservative weekly, says John Hostettler is the fourth most endangered Republican in the nation---be it in the Senate or the House. He's only beaten out by Conrad Burns, Jack Abramoff's favorite Senator, Don Sherwood, who had an extramartial affair (see this damning ad, which the WaPo says might be the best ad of 2006), and Rick Santorum, who's been down double digits in the polls for months against Bob Casey.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/10/2006 06:26:00 PM

[IN-09] Sodrel Responds to Hill's Foley Ad

The Courier-Journal:

In the 30-second spot that began airing Friday on Louisville television stations, Hill says incumbent U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel, R-9th, has refused to return $77,000 in contributions received from House leaders who "knew about but did nothing to stop" a former Congressman accused of sending sexually inappropriate Internet messages to underage pages.

The ad also enumerates contributions from two other former Congressmen swept up in scandals.

Sodrel's campaign manager, Cam Savage, called it "the nastiest ad I've ever seen." He said Sodrel wants to wait for the results of an investigation into who knew what about the Foley situation before making any decisions about campaign contributions.

"Trying to link Mike to this is disingenuous. It's ludicrous," Savage said. "It shows that he's very desperate."

But Melanie Morris, a spokeswoman for the Hill campaign, said Monday that "it's very clear House leadership" did nothing.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/09/2006 07:40:00 PM

[MPC] Candidates on Sex Predators, "Amnesty"

Though Carl Brizzi has been running television ads about internet predators, Kennedy is trying to turn the tables--and is invoking Republican Congressman Mark Foley:

Kennedy, the Democratic challenger, announced a plan to combat online predators. She also said Brizzi, who is seeking reelection, could not be trusted on the issue because of a flap involving his assistant sex crimes chief in March 2005.

Brizzi fired Jay Meisenhelder after discovering a romantic e-mail he sent to a 16-year-old girl. Kennedy provided copies of that e-mail and alluded to a recent scandal in Washington, D.C., over online e-mails and conversations Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) had with 16- and 17-year-old congressional pages.

The Brizzi campaign hasn't changed their media plan for "Sting," an ad about online sexual predators (even including images of instant message exchanges), which began running on Indianapolis broadcast stations before the Foley scandal broke.

Kennedy's plan is called the Prosecutor's Regional Operation to Eliminate Child Threats —--- or "P.R.O.T.E.C.T." It includes more aggressive targeting of online sexual predators, making the office a clearinghouse for filtering software and publishing a registry of the sexual predators' online identities.

During his news conference, Brizzi, a Republican seeking reelection, repeated his criticism of an item in Kennedy's plan that would offer one-time amnesty to some young gang members. In exchange, they must turn in their guns and renounce their gang membership in writing.

"My intention is to go after the gang infrastructure by going against gang leaders," Kennedy said. She would target "wannabes" and fringe members with amnesty offers, she said.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/09/2006 07:30:00 PM

[IN-09] NRCC Ind. Exp.

The NRCC paid today $5,972 to Arena Communications for negative direct mail opposing Baron Hill.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/09/2006 07:09:00 PM

[IN-02] NRCC Exp.

The NRCC paid today $9,555 to Public Opinion Strategies to poll the Second.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/09/2006 07:09:00 PM

[IN-08] NRCC, DCCC Ind. Exps.

The NRCC paid today $9,555 to Public Opinion Strategies to poll the Bloody Eighth.

The DCCC paid $16,275 to AKP Message & Media to produce ads opposing John Hostettler.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/09/2006 07:07:00 PM

[MPC] Indianapolis Star Coverage of MPC Debate

How did Brizzi get put in front of a flag that was strikingly similar to his logo, and Kennedy got to stand in front of a giant WISH logo the entire time? ... Just wondering. IndyStar:

Carl Brizzi, the Republican incumbent, painted Melina Kennedy, his Democratic challenger, as a candidate lacking adequate prosecutorial or courtroom experience for the job.

Brizzi, Kennedy said, has overseen lower conviction rates in several areas, including domestic violence. She is ready to fill a leadership vacuum, she said.

In just over four weeks, voters will decide between the two in the area's highest-profile race. Sunday night's 30-minute debate on WISH (Channel 8) was the first of four scheduled.

On the experience question, Kennedy cited her background in civil litigation, as a clerk for the Indiana Supreme Court and as deputy mayor. But Brizzi said she would create an experience void at the top of the prosecutor's office.

"Every day, young prosecutors in my office come up to the sixth floor to ask for my advice," said Brizzi, who was a deputy prosecutor under his predecessor, Republican Scott Newman. "Being on the front lines and trying these cases makes all the difference in the world."

Kennedy cited Stephen Goldsmith, Indianapolis' former mayor. He earlier became prosecutor without having worked in the office. Leadership is more important in a large county prosecutor's office, she said.

"I agree (Brizzi has) very good experience," Kennedy said. "But I think when something's just not working, having someone coming in with a fresh perspective is the way to go."

The candidates agreed on several issues: Overcrowding in the Marion County Jail has stopped, but more efforts are needed. The death penalty should be used only for "the worst of the worst." Marijuana should stay illegal.

And the office should serve as a watchdog over state government, no matter the politics.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/09/2006 06:01:00 AM

[MPC] Brizzi & Kennedy Debate

Video - WMV

A bit from the MCP debate tonight hosted by WISH-TV. Nothing of any particular excitement, but worth a look if you didn't see it on TV.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/08/2006 06:14:00 PM

[IN-08] Hostettler's First Ad

I'm trying to find a copy, but here's the script:

Fighting the ACLU's efforts to remove every trace of our religious heritage, Congressman John Hostettler's Public Expression of Religion Act passed the House of Representatives this year with bipartisan support.

In support of the Public Expression of Religion Act, American Legion National Commander Paul Morin stated: 'A special thanks goes to Rep. Hostettler for championing such needed legislation on behalf of all taxpayers in the name of religious expression.' John Hostettler: Our values. Our congressman.

I notice he stole Chris Chocola's slogan, "Our voice, our values, our Congressman." That, or Chocola stole his.

(Also: the Courier-Press does their regular "fact check.")

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/07/2006 09:52:00 AM

[IN-09] IWIR on Foley, Sodrel

Video - WMV

The Indiana Week in Review panel on Mark Foley and Dennis Hastert's canceled visit to IN-09. Mike O'Connor sits in for Ann DeLaney.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/07/2006 09:40:00 AM

[IN-08] Hostettler Attacks Bayh, Ellsworth

More coverage, this time from the Courier-Press. Again the duo pushed for implementation of the 9/11 Commission recommendations:

Standing in the airport terminal with Evansville Fire Department Lt. Larry Zuber, Bayh and Ellsworth called for improved baggage and cargo screening and a prescreening program for airline passengers, recommendations made by the 9/11 Commission.

"America doesn't expect perfection, but it does expect us to do the best job we can," Ellsworth said.

John Hostettler responded, somewhat surprisingly, by attacking the popular Hoosier Senator:

"Once again, Brad Ellsworth is campaigning with a proponent of amnesty (for illegal immigrants)," Hostettler's statement said. "Once again, Brad Ellsworth's actions speak louder than his words."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/07/2006 09:40:00 AM

[IN-08] DCCC Ind. Exp.

The DCCC spent $4,725 for positive direct mail, and $4,725 for negative direct mail 10/5, paid to The Strategy Group.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/07/2006 09:20:00 AM

[IN-09] DCCC Ind. Exp.

The DCCC paid GMMB 10/5 $5,213 to produce a negative ad opposing Mike Sodrel, as well as another $5,213 for production in support of Baron Hill. They paid Great American Media $52,547 for a negative media buy, and another $52,547 for a positive buy.

They paid $13,465 to The Baughman Company for negative direct mail.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/07/2006 09:17:00 AM

[IN-02] DCCC Ind. Exp.

Yesterday, the DCCC paid Mack Crounse Group, LLC $7,595 for direct mail opposing Chris Chocola, as well as $8,710 for negative ad production to Murphy Putnam Shorr & Partners.

They paid another $7,595 to Mack Crounse Group, LLC for direct mail supporting Joe Donnelly.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/07/2006 09:15:00 AM

[IN-02] CNN: Foley Fallout in IN-02, IN-09

Video - WMV

CNN's Dana Bash on the "Foley fallout" in Indiana's Second, as well as the Ninth.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/07/2006 08:30:00 AM

[IN-09] More on Hill Ad

I finally have a (horrible quality) video of the ad itself, here. CNN coverage:

The first campaign television ad featuring disgraced former Rep. Mark Foley, R-Florida, hit the airwaves Friday in southern Indiana, as a Democratic challenger sought to link the ongoing page scandal to the Republican congressman.
...
A Sodrel spokesman denounced the ad as being "completely untrue," and noted that the Indiana Republican has not yet decided to whether to ask television stations to refrain from airing it.

"When Mike first saw the ad, he was appalled," said Cam Savage, Sodrel's spokesman. "The idea that Baron would try to directly link him with this Foley scandal is just preposterous. We are not surprised by it, because we know how Baron is and we know how desperately he wants to be back in Congress. We see this as a new low."
...
Melanie Morris, Hill's spokeswoman, said Sodrel "should return the money from those in the House leadership who kept this under wraps.

"Basically, our point is there is a crisis in leadership and Mike Sodrel isn't doing anything about it," she said. "He is part of the problem."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/06/2006 07:27:00 PM

[IN-09] UPDATED: Baron Hill First Candidate in Country to Use Mark Foley in Ad

Video - WMV

Baron Hill is the first Congressional candidate in the country to use Mark Foley's namesake and image in a television ad. There have been some indirect references in the last week from other Congressional candidates, but this first got Hill a mention on CNN's The Situation Room this afternoon.

This clip shows the new ad, out today, in its entirety.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/06/2006 03:49:00 PM

[IN-08] Bloody Eighth Update (Plus: NPR Audio)

AUDIO - Mp3

- NPR filed this report on the Ellsworth/Hostettler debate for All Things Considered, focusing on the Indiana implications of the Mark Foley scandal.

- Evan Bayh stumped for Ellsworth in Terre Haute yesterday, stressing the need to pass all of the 9/11 Commission reccomendations. "Unfortunately, these are dangerous times, and we need to do a better job protecting our country," Bayh said. More Bayh, from the Trib-Star: "Out of the 41 suggestions, there were four 'F's, nine 'D's and no 'A's. That is not good enough. We can do better than that defending America, and Brad Ellsworth will."

- The Evansville Courier-Press calls the debate a draw: "both score." They're also running an online poll, gauging if the event changed minds.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/06/2006 03:31:00 PM

[IN-02] Stumping for Donnelly: Evan Bayh

The South Bend Tribune:

The Hoosier Democrat said his "Stopping Overseas Subsidies" legislation, which is aimed at controlling unfair trade practices, isn't going anywhere "under current management." He expressed hope that the Nov. 7 election will result in a change of policy.

Donnelly said he strongly supports the proposal.

Bayh, who said he's known Donnelly for 20 years, described the Granger Democrat as "a good person who will fight for the people of the district."

Donnelly said he had asked Bayh early on to campaign for him because Bayh is loved by Hoosiers and because "it's a good thing to have a friend who's also a senator."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/06/2006 02:44:00 PM

[IN-02] New Ads in the Second

The NRCC has an ad up that replaces "Dots," and the DCCC has an ad up with this script:

When our country calls, they answer. They're Indiana's National Guard. But back at home, many Guard families struggle to make ends meet. Something Chris Chocola doesn't seem to understand. When Congress voted on a $1500 bonus to send troops serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, Chris said no. The same Chris Chocola who accepted thousands in pay raises said 'no' to helping military families.

I don't have copies of either spot yet, but I'm working on it. As always, if you have a copy, send it on over already.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/06/2006 02:06:00 PM

[IN-09] NRCC Ind. Exp.

The NRCC today paid Arena Communications $5,972 for direct mail opposing Baron Hill.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/05/2006 08:35:00 PM

HPR Race Movement Update

The Howey Political Report today is forecasting a 51-49 Democratic House. The latest legislative race rankings are posted at right.

HPR's also switching all three of Indiana's competitive CDs---IN-02, IN-08, IN-09---from "Toss Up" to "Leans Dem."

[IN-02] DCCC Ind. Exp.

The DCCC paid $15,190 on 10/3 to Mack Crounse Group, LLC for mail services. This is the first DCCC mailing in the Second.

They also paid $79,401 to Great American Media for a media buy opposing Chris Chocola.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/05/2006 02:16:00 PM

[IN-08] Coverage of Hostettler/Ellsworth Debate

The Tribune Star says the two differed starkly on the minimum wage:

One of their most glaring contrasts came when Rump asked them if they’d favor an increase in the minimum wage from its current $5.15 per hour, where it has remained since 1997.

Hostettler stated his firm opposition, and insisted that most minimum-wage workers aren’t actually poor, but instead are made up of the young. He backed his statement by saying that economists can link such increases to inflation. Ellsworth disagreed with the assertion that such earners are mostly high-schoolers and college students, and mentioned the idea of a married couple, both earning minimum wage, living below the poverty level. "There's a lot of wasteful spending going on, and we can afford to raise the minimum wage," he said.

The AP reported mostly similiarities:

During the hour-long televised debate, Hostettler and Ellsworth agreed about goals in Iraq, reducing foreign energy dependence and the expansion of powers to help the federal government fight terrorism.

On the issue of immigration, both candidates proposed building a fence along the Mexican border to stem illegal entries, electronically monitoring such a fence and reducing the availability of jobs to illegal workers.

One of only few issues they differed on was minimum wage - Hostettler opposed a hike; Ellsworth supported it.

WTHR on Hostettler's guilty-by-association argument:

But the six term Republican warned Ellsworth's election could turn the leadership of the U.S. House over to Democrats. The 8th District is considered one of a handful of seats that could put Democrats in control.

"Now liberals from all over the country are pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into the 8th District, into Brad Ellsworth's campaign. If Mr. Ellsworth's choice for speaker of the House puts Charlie Rangle in charge of writing tax legislation he will turn the federal government into a much larger recipient of taxes from all America," said Congressman Hostettler.

The Courier-Press:

Ellsworth spoke of the need for not only a new congressman, but a new and less partisan Congress.

No other debates are scheduled, but Hostettler will appear this morning before the Morning Rotary Club of Evansville, and Ellsworth will make appearances this week with Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind.

Aides to both candidates say the pace will become furious in the weeks before Election Day, Nov. 7.

Who won? The Courier-Press has an online poll running.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/05/2006 05:54:00 AM

Mega-Post

- Donnelly pounces on the Mark Foley scandal. The South Bend Tribune:

"There is no question Speaker Hastert should resign his speakership effective immediately," Donnelly said. "I would imagine this is an issue Chris Chocola and I can find common ground on. The question is, will Chris Chocola continue to support leaders in his party who covered up this scandal and put children at risk, or will he join with me in calling for the Speaker's resignation?"

"Mark Foley's behavior is unconscionable and tragic and Foley should face the full weight of our legal system," Chocola said in response.

"After all the facts become clear, if leadership acted inappropriately, they will lose my support and should be held accountable for their actions or inactions."

- The Herald Argus has coverage of the Chocola/Donnelly debate. Fox 28 does too.

- The Indianapolis Star breathlessly reports numbers, in a frontpage headline story no less, that I posted five days ago.

- Carl Brizzi has another "pod" video, this one encouraging people to volunteer for the campaign.

- Matt Tully justifiably wonders whether Evan Bayh could be doing more good for Democrats in Indiana than in Iowa.

- Boring candidate forum in the ninth.

IN-02 Reuters/Zogby poll: conducted 9/25-10/2 of 502 LVs; MoE +/- 4.5% Party identification: 44%D, 40%R, 16%I/O. Donnelly leads 49-39%. 12% are undecided:

General Election Matchup
All Dem GOP Ind
Donnelly 49% 86% 10% 43%
Chocola 39 2 78 43
Other/undec 12 12 12 14

Does Chocola Deserve Re-Election?
All Dem GOP Ind
Yes, re-elect 35% 5% 70% 33%
No, someone new 56 92 18 50

Fav/Unfav
Donnelly 51%/25%
Chocola 43 /47

IN-09 Reuters/Zogby poll: conducted 9/25-10/2 of 500 LVs; MoE +/- 4.5% Party identification: 47%D, 39%R, 14%I/O. Hill leads 46-38%. 16% are undecided:

General Election Matchup
All Dem GOP Ind
Hill 46% 79% 9% 41%
Sodrel 38 8 78 32
Other/undec 16 13 13 27

Does Sodrel Deserve Re-Election?
All Dem GOP Ind
Yes, re-elect 39% 13% 74% 31%
No, someone new 45 70 13 44

Fav/Unfav
Hill 52%/29%
Sodrel 46 /35

- Pollster John Zogby, on the results:

The formula for Democratic victory: in each case where Democrats lead, the candidates are winning near or above 80% of their own party vote and they are leading among independents. In other races I am following closely, there are reasons to see Democrats ahead in other Republican districts, as well. No predictions yet because there are still many undecided voters, but Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief that the election was not held the past few days. These polls were taken during what Queen Elizabeth would describe as 'weekendus horribilis' for the Republicans. However, the polling was conducted from last Thursday through Monday night of this week. We closely examined the figures for Thursday and Friday (i.e. before the Mark Foley scandal really hit) and Saturday through Monday and the results indicated no change in voter sentiment: aggregated, Democrats led 44% to 40% the first two nights and 44% to 40% the last three.

It may just be that the scandal has not played out fully and it could very well be that a scandal of such magnitude could hurt both parties. At the same time,, two caveats are in order - we did not poll Democratic districts and I am doing some districts for private clients and there are more Republican vulnerabilities.

So, Republicans find themselves in a bad news/good news situation. The bad news is they are in grave danger of losing their majority in the House. The good news is that there are still nearly five weeks before Election Day in which to do damage control.

[IN-08] DCCC Ind. Exp.

The DCCC paid $4,725 today to The Strategy Group for mail services opposing John Hosetettler as well as another $4,725 to support Brad Ellsworth.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/03/2006 08:37:00 PM

[IN-02] DCCC Ind. Exp.

The DCCC paid $33,565 today to Great American Media for a media buy opposing Chris Chocola.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/03/2006 08:37:00 PM

[IN-02] "Local Issues Mean Little" in the Second

Video - WMV

"Local issues mean little," according to Jim Shella of WISH, who made the trip up to Kokomo today to report on a voter reigstration drive at IUK. The story largely focuses on the ramifications of the war in Iraq as part of the station's "Hoosier Voices" series.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/03/2006 07:43:00 PM