By my count, it's the first independent poll that shows a Republican leading in any of the Big Three all year long. 46% Sodrel, 44% Hill, 5% Schansberg, 4% undecided.
Much has been made of Eric Schansberg's potential spoiler effect---it's been widely suspected that he'd siphon away disaffected conservatives from Sodrel---but this poll indicates that his supporters are disproportionately liberal. Perhaps Schansberg's attention to the working poor is wooing them?
In One Day, DCCC Drops Over $1.2 Million Dollars into the Ninth
Whoa. On 11/1, the DCCC spent a total of $1,218,064.
- $212,019 media buy supporting Hill - $636,057 media buy opposing Sodrel - $5,025 for positive production (GMMB) - $5,025 for negative production (GMMB) - $9,950 for negative production (GMMB) - $87,497 media buy supporting Hill - $262,491 media buy opposing Sodrel
A poll will be released today by SurveyUSA that shows Baron Hill four points ahead of Mike Sodrel...the data is not yet available online, but I'll post it when it is.
While Savage is correct that Libertarians have run for the 9th District seat many times in the past, most agree that Schansberg is a different kind of threat. A party source gives Schansberg his due.
"I think he's going to show better," said Al Cox, the Libertarian who ran for the 9th District seat in the 2002 and 2004 elections. Cox took 1.3 percent of the vote in 2002 and 1.5 percent of the vote in 2004.
Cox said Schansberg is far more visible than he ever was. "I was relatively unknown," he said.
While Cox did get a chance to debate with the major party candidates both years, the only advertising he had were two billboards. Both were in somewhat rural areas along Interstate 65.
Schansberg has spent thousands on both newspaper and radio advertisements. According to recent Federal Elections Commission data, he still has close to $9,000 left to spend with only a few weeks to go before the election.
And he has something Cox never had -- a campaign staff.
- A sampling of some of the mail that's being sent in the Ninth:
"Baron Hill will turn our values upside down," screams one piece mailed by the Indiana Republican State Committee and featuring an upside-down and bloated-looking photo of the Democrat. ... "Mike Sodrel. He's in the pocket of the Big Boys," states a piece mailed by Hill's campaign. ... "Millionaire Mike Sodrel's shameful votes against troops and veterans are a disgrace," the ad reads. "Our troops and veterans deserve to be treated with honor." ... One refers to the Democrat as Baron "Capitol" Hill and accuses him of being "Washington's poster boy."
Sodrel has a good understanding of issues facing the district and nation and offers thoughtful approaches on everything from fighting terrorism to controlling illegal immigration.
Sodrel, a member of the House transportation committee, points to a higher proportion of federal transportation dollars returning to Indiana as a major success during his first term. ... Sodrel, after only two years in office, has shown solid growth in the position. He's earned a second term.
- Sylvia Smith says Republicans might well win all three CDs in Indiana, and "gazillionaire" Sodrel might spend down some of his fortune to do it.
- The DCCC is up with a new ad in the Indianapolis media market (and presumably Louisville, though I haven't confirmed) claiming Sodrel is making the "Washington mess" worse.
Sodrel raised (net) $431,418, and spent (net, excluding refunds for contributions, which aren't included in the receipt totals) $486,720. Sodrel also has a huge pile of debt--$251,927. More than half of his receipts came from PACs ($219,048), and fewer from individuals, $212,780.
The Republican began the quarter with $1,138,747, and ended it with $1,072,320.
Finance totals at right have been updated. Hill, Ellsworth, Chocola, and Donnelly have yet to file their reports.
Republican Incumbent Mike Sodrel held two press conferences Friday -- one in Jeffersonville, one in Jasper -- touting the endorsement he picked up from Right to Life PAC.
Sodrel said the endorsement was significant to him because he considers preventing abortions a top priority.
"It is our duty as a government and as a society to protect the lives of those who are the most vulnerable among us," Sodrel said.
Meanwhile, Democratic Party challenger Baron Hill went to Jasper earlier this week with former Indiana Congressman Tim Roemer to hold a town hall meeting to discuss the 95-10 Initiative.
The 95-10 proposal seeks to reduce the number of abortions by 95 percent in the next 10 years.
"I am against abortions," Hill said. He has said in the past that it should be safe and legal but rare.
Now a Democratic group, which has been making calls against Mike Sodrel, has filed suit against the state of Indiana. A previous suit, filed by the Economic Freedom Fund, which made calls attacking Baron Hill, is still pending.
A Washington-based organization is asking a federal court to block enforcement of an Indiana law that bans automated prerecorded phone calls.
American Family Voices on Friday filed a complaint in U.S. District Court in Indianapolis, arguing the ban violates the federal Constitution and interstate commerce laws and should not apply to calls made for political purposes.
In the 30-second spot that began airing Friday on Louisville television stations, Hill says incumbent U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel, R-9th, has refused to return $77,000 in contributions received from House leaders who "knew about but did nothing to stop" a former Congressman accused of sending sexually inappropriate Internet messages to underage pages.
The ad also enumerates contributions from two other former Congressmen swept up in scandals.
Sodrel's campaign manager, Cam Savage, called it "the nastiest ad I've ever seen." He said Sodrel wants to wait for the results of an investigation into who knew what about the Foley situation before making any decisions about campaign contributions.
"Trying to link Mike to this is disingenuous. It's ludicrous," Savage said. "It shows that he's very desperate."
But Melanie Morris, a spokeswoman for the Hill campaign, said Monday that "it's very clear House leadership" did nothing.
The DCCC paid GMMB 10/5 $5,213 to produce a negative ad opposing Mike Sodrel, as well as another $5,213 for production in support of Baron Hill. They paid Great American Media $52,547 for a negative media buy, and another $52,547 for a positive buy.
I finally have a (horrible quality) video of the ad itself, here. CNN coverage:
The first campaign television ad featuring disgraced former Rep. Mark Foley, R-Florida, hit the airwaves Friday in southern Indiana, as a Democratic challenger sought to link the ongoing page scandal to the Republican congressman. ... A Sodrel spokesman denounced the ad as being "completely untrue," and noted that the Indiana Republican has not yet decided to whether to ask television stations to refrain from airing it.
"When Mike first saw the ad, he was appalled," said Cam Savage, Sodrel's spokesman. "The idea that Baron would try to directly link him with this Foley scandal is just preposterous. We are not surprised by it, because we know how Baron is and we know how desperately he wants to be back in Congress. We see this as a new low." ... Melanie Morris, Hill's spokeswoman, said Sodrel "should return the money from those in the House leadership who kept this under wraps.
"Basically, our point is there is a crisis in leadership and Mike Sodrel isn't doing anything about it," she said. "He is part of the problem."
Baron Hill is the first Congressional candidate in the country to use Mark Foley's namesake and image in a television ad. There have been some indirect references in the last week from other Congressional candidates, but this first got Hill a mention on CNN's The Situation Room this afternoon.
This clip shows the new ad, out today, in its entirety.
The event, by the Women's Foundation of Southern Indiana, is meant to give voters a chance to ask federal, state and local candidates about issues important to women.
The two other 9th District candidates, Democrat Baron Hill and Libertarian Eric Schansberg, announced last week that they would attend the event but Sodrel had not committed until this week.
That will make it only the second joint appearance for the three 9th District candidates.
The forum is scheduled for 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. in the Ogle Center on the New Albany campus.
The NRCC's "Six" is now running in the Indianapolis media market. That's a pretty inefficient buy, and isn't ususally seen until the last week of the election...
The DCCC today paidGMMB $10,765 for ad production opposing Mike Sodrel, $6,733 to The Baughman Company for direct mail opposing Sodrel, and $6,733 to the same company for mail services in support of Baron Hill.
Mike Sodrel is out with an ad claiming that--and I'm totally serious--Baron Hill is the candidate who supports Social Security privatization.
Hill says it "blatantly lies" by citing a quote to an article that it never appeared in. What Hill said, that it'd be a "good idea" for the government to invest part of the Social Security trust fund, is in this video.
The candidate called on four Louisville television stations to stop airing the commercial, which contains the "I'm Mike Sodrel and I approve this message," tag line at the end.
Apparently, that approval came just a little too soon. The ad will be changed slightly but the message will remain the same, said Sodrel campaign manager Cam Savage.
"We're going to remove the quotes from the words 'good idea,'" Savage said.
Other than that the ad will be exactly the same.
Savage maintains that there is nothing wrong with the commercial. It is representative of Hill's views on social security, he said.
He points to the lines in the C-J’s article in which Lesley Stedman Weidenbener writes: "Hill said last week that if the government more aggressively invested its funds -- in a balanced way that is ensured against loss, perhaps in mutual funds -- it could at least slow the looming problems with Social Security."
That proves that he is in favor of social security privatization, Savage said.
Hill says that Sodrel is the one who favors privatization. Sodrel has advocated voluntary personal accounts for social security money.
"I usually don't get real worked up on endorsements because I don't think they mean a lot," Hill said at a press conference in Veterans' Plaza at Market and 10th streets in New Albany. "But this one means a lot to me."
He added, "I am very proud to have this endorsement."
Mounty Mount, a Korean War veteran and Crothersville VFW Post 1083 member who introduced Hill, said the former congressman "fought for improved veterans' benefits" while he was in the House.
Mount said the VFW committee backs Hill for his support of "veterans, national security, defense and military personnel."
Both Mount and Hill criticized Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel, who defeated Hill two years ago.
Hill said Sodrel has "repeatedly voted against veterans and their families" by opposing lower health-care fees and health insurance for reservists and National Guard members.
Baron Hill today agreed to participate in a Candidates’ Forum on Tuesday, October 3, hosted by the Women's Foundation of Southern Indiana in New Albany. All candidates running for state and federal offices will have the opportunity to answer questions from the audience in a panel-discussion format.
"I am excited to go before the people of the 9th District and speak openly and honestly about the real issues facing Southern Indiana," said Hill. It was unfortunate that the previously-scheduled debate in New Albany on October 1 was canceled due to Mike Sodrel's unwillingness to participate. I'm glad this new opportunity has come up, and it is my hope that Mike Sodrel won't duck from the chance to discuss the issues that are important to Hoosiers."
Democrats are trying to get some play from "Doughnut Hole Day," a reference to the gap in coverage from the Medicare prescription drug plan:
"This most recent report highlights a major flaw in the new Medicare prescription drug plan," said 9th District Democratic Challenger Baron Hill. "No American should go without lifesaving treatment because he or she cannot afford the cost of prescription drugs."
Hill described the gap as "deserting" seniors and said that needed to change.
Hill offered that he would favor a system in which drug benefits are added to the Medicare system as a monthly payment -- essentially skipping the complexity of doughnut holes, multiple plans and other factors. People who need drug benefits can pay the extra month costs while people who don't won't, he said.
Democrats have been using the new report as a campaign tool since it was released last week. Critics of the program seized upon the report, which was based on data provided by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, a federal agency.
Last Friday was even declared "Doughnut Hole Day" by some critics, the statistical day in which most seniors would fall into the gap.
Numerous attempts to reach Republican incumbent Mike Sodrel for this article were unsuccessful. Cam Savage, Sodrel's campaign manager, noted that this is the first time the government has offered a drug benefit. People are saving money from it, he said. And that's the important thing.
Two DCCC media buys underscore the balance between positive and negative ads: they paid Great American Media $9,897 to place ads in support of Baron Hill, and $60,796 for air time opposing Mike Sodrel.
The DCCC paid today The Baughman Company $6,733 for "mail services" in support of Baron Hill and another $6,733 to the same company for "mail services" opposing Mike Sodrel.
The National Journal is out with their latest House Race Rankings, ranking all three of Indiana's competitive CDs amongst the top ten in the nation---6th (IN-08), 7th (IN-09), and 8th (IN-02). Their analysis:
IN-08: A recent independent poll showed Hostettler within 4 points, 44 percent to 40 percent. He's well under the magic 50-percent mark, but he's hoping his supporters will turn out in greater numbers than Ellsworth's. Seems less and less likely as the weeks go by, though.
IN-09: Hill's first ad talks about his "Hoosier values" -- patriotism, faith and opposition to gay marriage. That's the right message in this culturally conservative district. IN-02: The latest independent poll again shows Donnelly leading Chocola, 50 percent to 42 percent. Donnelly's looking like the real deal, and his Notre Dame ties certainly help in this South Bend district. We've been hesitant to move the race this high because of history. But clearly, Indiana is a GIGANTIC problem for the GOP.
The NRCC has an ad up in IN-09 (if you have it, please send it my way), and Baron Hill came out swinging today:
Baron Hill today refuted claims by a recent National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) television ad criticizing Hill's record on families, seniors, and small businesses. In actuality, it's Mike Sodrel who is hurting the average Hoosier by calling for the abolishment of the minimum wage, the privatization of Social Security, and the cutback of small business loans.
"This recent attack ad is simply meant to scare Hoosiers into voting for Mike Sodrel, and I think the people of the 9th District have had enough of his misplaced priorities," said Hill. "In Congress, I'll fight for the interests of families, seniors, and small businesses. Mike Sodrel, on the other hand, continues to prove he's out of touch with the Hoosiers he represents. While he rubber stamps the Bush administration's fiscally irresponsible policies, the people of Indiana are paying the price -- and they want change."
PBS's NewsHour visited IN-09 and filed a thorough, nine-minute-long report, interviewing both Baron Hill and Mike Sodrel, as well as Brian Howey, editor of the Howey Political Report. It's a must-watch, to be sure.
I've even gone so far as to offer two bandwith versions to accomodate all of you dial-up slow pokes; you won't want to miss out on this one.
Attorney General Steve Carter filed a lawsuit against a Democratic group that has been making automated phone calls in Indiana:
The newest lawsuit, filed today in a Harrison County court, is against American Family Voices, a Democratic-leaning group based in Washington. Carter earlier filed a lawsuit against Economic Freedom Fund, a California-based group funded by Texas Republican Bob Perry. In response, the vendor used by the Economic Freedom Fund, the Virginia-based FreeEats.com, has filed a lawsuit in federal court against Carter, claiming Indiana's law barring the automated calls is an unconstitutional restraint on interstate commerce.
American Family Voices had no immediate comment on the lawsuit.
Baron Hill is using his basketball fame to his advantage, according to Chris Cillizza and Jim VanDeHei of the Washington Post. The traveled to IN-09 in their fourth day of the WaPo's River Ramble series, which is profiling competitive CDs near the Ohio River.
The Hill strategy is to emphasize his faith and family values, and talk basketball as often as possible to show his distinctly Indiana upbringing. He was a star at Seymor High School and remains a well-known part of Hoosier basketball lore. It might just work. Hill's polling shows him leading by about five points, which squares with public polling in the district.
The Republican plan is two-fold: Question Hill's social conservatism and accuse him of voting against tax cuts, which he did. Hill voted for a number of tax cuts too, but that is not the message voters are hearing in the latest ad by the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Trying to unseat Rep. Michael E. Sodrel (R), he does not hesitate to invoke his basketball credentials to prove his down-home bona fides. Hill still holds the school record for most points scored (1,419) and was inducted into the Indiana Basketball Hall of Fame in 2000 alongside a "hick from French Lick" named Larry Bird. ... Sodrel said basketball was a political asset for Hill -- before the Democrat went to Congress for six years. Sodrel said his opponent's votes against bans on same-sex marriage and flag burning are far more important to voters. "Basketball can't overcome that," he said. "He is out of sync with voters." Still, Sodrel said polls showing him slightly behind at this point are probably accurate.
Sodrel to Rape Victims: Keep the Baby, Whether You Like it Or Not
Mike Sodrel has a fairly extreme view of abortion: no exception for rape victims.
Sodrel opposes abortion in almost all situations — except when the life of the mother is at risk.
Otherwise, "I don't think abortion ought to be a choice," he said. "People say it's the woman's body. But I think there's a distinction between a mother and baby. The DNA is different from child to mother. It's two people, and one is on life support."
Sodrel said he doesn't understand "why any rational person would vote against banning the practice."
He doesn't support an exception for women who have been raped because he believes it would be unmanageable. Would a rape allegation be enough to warrant an abortion? Would a man have to be convicted of rape for the woman to be granted the procedure? ... Sodrel voted against a bill Congress passed earlier this year that would have lifted the ban on federal funding for such research if the cells were collected from embryos created as part of in-vitro fertilization procedures.
Translation: on embryos that would have been thrown away anyway, Sodrel would rather them not be used for life-saving and revolutionary scientific research.
"By saying these embryos can't be used for stem cell research, then you're saying in-vitro fertilization should be banned because embryos are destroyed in that procedure, too," Hill said. "We ought to be allowing their use for medical research, because they will be otherwise discarded."
The DCCC ad running in IN-09 accusing Mike Sodrel of supporting Social Security privatization will not be pulled from stations, despite Sodrel's calls that it be taken down:
WDRB-TV station manager Bill Lamb reviewed the ad, Savage's arguments and a response from the Democratic committee. He said he doesn't "like to be judge and jury," although he's willing to pull an inaccurate ad. But in this case, the decision wasn't difficult.
"Although the ad may be a distortion of Mike Sodrel's position or a bastardization, they did not make their case," Lamb said. "I don't think there is enough evidence that is at all sufficient to pull this ad."
Finally: a company has sued the state of Indiana in hopes of overturning the ridiculous law that bans automated political calls. Forgetting the fact that it's the Swift Boaties taking the action, the state is infringing on political speech, and it's about time someone put it to an end.
The company FreeEats.com filed a lawsuit Thursday in federal court in Indianapolis. The company wants the Indiana attorney general to stop enforcing a state law that prohibits automated political calls unless recipients agree in advance to accept them.
Earlier this month, the state sued a California-based group called the Economic Freedom Fund to force it to stop making automated calls attacking Democratic congressional candidate Baron Hill. Hill is running against Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel in the closely watched 9th District.
FreeEats.com said in its lawsuit that it made those calls on behalf of the Economic Freedom Fund.
The Herndon, Va.-based FreeEats.com claims that the state law violates free speech rights under both the United States and Indiana constitutions. The company also argues that the ban is an unconstitutional restraint on interstate commerce. ... Carter's office was reviewing the FreeEats.com lawsuit. He said Friday that the prerecorded calls are illegal and that he would not back down from enforcing the law.
Sodrel Claims It's Hill That Wants to Privatize Social Security, Asks Stations to Dump DCCC Ads
Mike Sodrel thinks that this YouTube video proves Baron Hill supports privatizing Social Security. But in the clip, Hill only supported the government investing portions of the fund, a practice that it already does. The quote essentially restated how the system already works: "You mean the government doing the investing? I like your idea. I think you are on to something now. Well, I used to work with Merrill Lynch before I went to Congress. They've got into all kinds of troubles now, but back when I used to work for them they were an honest company. But one of the things I did was this kind of investing for corporations. It's called a defined benefit program and that's what really Social Security is."
But Sodrel does not support privatizing Social Security. Nowhere in the article cited by the ad does it note Sodrel's support for privatization. What the Courier-Journal article does say is that Sodrel does not "support any of the specific proposals that have been made for overhauling the Social Security system." (Courier-Journal, 3/29/05)
It's actually Baron Hill who has gone on the record in favor of privatizing Social Security. The DCCC ad says Hill will "oppose any plan that privatizes Social Security," but in 2002, Baron Hill told a group of seniors attending a forum on Social Security that he was for investing Social Security funds in the stock market, because he had worked as a stockbroker for Merrill Lynch and done the same kind of investing for corporations.
The DCCC ad, according to campaign manager Cam Savage, "intentionally and falsely accuses Mike Sodrel of supporting a hypothetical plan he has never supported."
A debate in New Albany was cancelled "citing problems securing a date and a location agreeable to the candidates." Eric Schansberg (Lib) and Baron Hill (D) "signed a debate agreement for the two-subject, 60-minute debate," 10/1 but Rep. Mike Sodrel's manager Cam Savage "said that Sodrel might have to be in" DC. Hill's campaign "said there were no scheduled votes" for 10/1 or 10/2 and Hill advisor Michael O'Connor: the Sodrel campaign "obviously started getting weak-kneed about the debate."
He just sent an e-mail out to supporters clarifying his position on gay marriage:
Many of you know me personally, and you know that I am a family man with deep religious convictions. Much has been said by my opponent, Mike Sodrel, about my beliefs concerning gay marriage, and I'm here to set the record straight.
Simply put, I believe that marriage is sacred and is a right only between a man and a woman. The people of the 9th District know that I am a man of my word, and they know that I will work to return strong Hoosier family values to Washington---values such as honesty, integrity, and faith.
The people of Indiana should not be surprised that they can't trust Mike Sodrel to live up to his word. Shortly after signing the Clean Campaign Pledge, Mike Sodrel broke the promise he made to the Monroe County religious leaders to run a clean, positive campaign. If Mike Sodrel can't be honest with ministers, how can we expect him to be honest with the people of the 9th District about anything?
I know that the people of Indiana are disappointed with the folks in Washington, and they want a change. The House of Representatives should be a place of honor and integrity. In Congress, I will represent your interests and work for your needs. I understand the importance of keeping the public's trust, and I'll work to bring back the strong values that our government desperately needs.
I encourage you to visit my website at www.baron2006.com, and thank you for your support.
The Herald-Times (subscription only) reports on a high school forum that Baron Hill attended:
But with just Hill and Sink-Burris on the stage, the event was less a debate than an exchange of ideas and responses to questions.
Asked about Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court decision that legalized abortion, Hill said he supports the decision but believes government should provide counseling and resources to prevent pregnancies and reduce the number of abortions.
Sink-Burris said Schansberg doesn't like abortions or regulation. "Libertarians believe persuasion, not force, is the way to change social values," she said.
Hill said he opposes same-sex marriage but doesn't think the Constitution should be amended to ban it. Sink-Burris said Schansberg has changed his position since a Sept. 30 debate, and he now would vote against the constitutional amendment.
Sink-Burris said same-sex marriage was "a shiny object used to distract voters from more important issues."
Hill told how, as a member of Congress in 2003, he believed he was lied to in order to win his vote for the war in Iraq. He said he and 35 other moderate Democrats were called to the Pentagon, where Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and others showed them classified intelligence that appeared to show Saddam Hussein was developing nuclear weapons and had the capacity to attack the U.S.
Later, he said, an Air Force official told him the information shouldn't have been used in that way. And it turned out to be wrong.
I'm Baron Hill, and I approved this message because it's time to set the record straight." ANNCR: "What kind of values does someone have who breaks their word to a minister? Mike Sodrel signed this pledge to a group of ministers to run a clean campaign. In this attack ad, Sodrel broke his word. The minister who wrote the pledge said, 'Sodrel's ad constitutes a negative, personal attack that violates the pledge.' If Mike Sodrel won't tell the truth to a group of ministers, how can we believe anything Mike Sodrel says about anything?
Tom Reynolds, the New York Republican that heads up the NRCC, briefed reporters yesterday on competitive House races across the country...What he said about Indiana:
" ... Both parties are watching that state closely. ... I think we've got some experienced incumbents in there, but by no means are these races put away yet.
"Chocola is working hard -- [he] has a lot of independent expenditures [being run] against him ... But he's got a 3-1 fundraising advantage to his opponent there. ...
"When you look at Hostettler, many of us have looked in amazement at how John Hostettler campaigns. But he's always connected with his conservative base there. We have been in there for a bit now [running independent expenditures].
"Sodrel is doing very well. ... He's doing everything you could ask him to do."
The NRCC paid $7,980 to Anthem Media to produce an ad in opposition to Baron Hill on 9/15. The same day, they purchased $131,976 (with Crossroads Media) in air time, presumably to broadcast the same ad.
Steve Carter's making good on his promise to crack down on automated calling, starting with a lawsuit he filed today against the shadowy Economic Freedom Fund, a group funded and with close ties to the Swift Boat Veterans:
Carter also is seeking a preliminary injunction against the California-based group, Economic Freedom Fund, which is financed by Bob J. Perry, a Texas homebuilder with close ties to White House adviser Karl Rove. Perry also bankrolled the Swift Boat attack ads against the war record of Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry in 2004.
Carter is holding a news conference at 2:15 p.m. today to discuss the legal action.
Carter, a Republican, began investigating the calls after receiving complaints about them from people who live in the 9th Congressional District in southeastern Indiana. Hill is running to represent the district, against Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Sorrel and Libertarian Eric Schonberg.
While political calls are exempt from Indiana's do-not-call law, they are not exempt from a 1988 law which bans prerecorded automated calls. A live person must first seek a person's permission before playing a recorded message.
I would imagine that the broadcast news outlets will have coverage on the evening news; I'll post it if they do.
The Republican operative who spent millions defaming presidential candidate John Kerry’s war record in 2004 is the sole backer of a new organization making illegal automated calls to benefit U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel in Indiana’s Ninth District.
According to an Associated Press story, the Economic Freedom Fund has received $5 million from Texas donor Bob J. Perry, who financed Swift Boat Veterans for Truth two years ago.
A lobbying group backing Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel dialed one heck of a wrong number when it placed an automated call to John Vanderlippe, Nashville. Vanderlippe sues telemarketers that violate the law, and Indiana law bans automated phone calls.
The 42-year-old general contractor let the Indiana Democratic Party know about the call made to his home by the California-based Economic Freedom Fund. The party has filed a complaint with Attorney General Steve Carter, who recently said he was cracking down on such calls.
Staci Schneider, spokeswoman for Carter, said the attorney general's office will investigate the complaint, the second they have received during this election season.
One key piece of evidence is the recording Vanderlippe made of the call he received this week, which slams Sodrel's Democratic challenger, former U.S. Rep. Baron Hill. Vanderlippe, a political independent, said he records all calls from potential telemarketers and has filed several lawsuits as a result.
UPDATE: For those so inclined, here's a copy of the call that was made, courtesy TDW.
Majority Watch is showing Democratic challenger Baron Hill besting Mike Sodrel by 11 points, with a MoE of +/- 2.9-3.1% amongst the 1017 respondents.
Most significantly: nearly all of the Hill voters are "strong" 47%, compared with Sodrel's 28% "strong" base and twice-as-large-as-Hill's "weak" base, at 14%. 5% are undecided in the Indiana district that disapproves of President Bush's job performance by larger margins than any other...at 58%. The poll shows independents breaking strongly for Hill, though they are less motivated than Hill's voters, and equally motivated as Sodrel's base.
The crosstabs, every bit as delicious as those of IN-02 and IN-08, are here.
Once considered the most vulnerable of the three targeted Indiana Republicans, Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) now appears to be in the best shape, though his re-election is far from assured. Former Rep. Baron Hill (D) seems to believe his 2004 loss to Sodrel was a fluke and is largely unwilling to admit the efficacy of any of Republican attacks on him. That seems somewhat short-sighted to us.
That when Hill was in Congress he was "shipping jobs overseas."
That Hill, who was in Congress before he was defeated by Sodrel in 2004, remained in Washington "and went to work for a big lobbying firm."
Hill said there is no basis for a claim he shipped jobs overseas. But Savage said the statement is based on Hill's support of legislation normalizing trade relations with China, which Savage said led to the loss of U.S. jobs.
On the lobbying firm statement, Hill said it implies he was a lobbyist. Hill did work for M Capital Management, which has a lobbying arm, after his defeat. But he said his work was done in Indiana and involved advising local companies on how to attract more business.
As for saying Hill worked for "a big lobbying firm," Savage said, "I don't know what else to call it."
Savage defended the ad as factual and said the campaign would continue to use it.
If Sodrel does that, Hill warned he will have to respond with negative ads.
As if anyone really believes that Hill doesn't have negative spots already canned and ready to run...
Mike Sodrel released this press release shortly after Baron release unveiled his first television spot:
In his first television ad of the 2006 campaign, former-Congressman-turned-Washington, D.C power broker Baron Hill is again trying to pull one over on Indiana voters.
In the ad, Baron Hill states, "marriage between a man and a woman is sacred," but he refused to vote to define marriage as a union of one man and one woman. (HJ.RES 106, roll call 484, 9/30/04)
In the ad, Baron Hill states, "special interests have too much power, that's why we're headed in the wrong direction," but Hill went to work for a Washington lobbying firm after losing the 2004 election to Mike Sodrel. (Evansville Courier & Press, 10/18/05)
In the ad, Baron Hill states, "it's time for change," but Hill is a career politician, who served three-terms in Congress, and has been running for different offices for more than twenty years."
"The only thing consistent with Baron Hill is his inconsistency," Sodrel campaign manager Cam Savage said. "Southern Indiana voters wised up to Baron Hill's double-talk in 2004. They know his rhetoric doesn't match his record, and they won't be fooled this year either."
Mike Sodrel released his first TV ad yesterday too---and Baron Hill's fuming, saying "Mike Sodrel went on the air with a negative attack ad about Baron Hill. In doing so, he broke the Clean Campaign Pledge he signed just last month. How can the 9th District voters trust Mike Sodrel?"
I haven't been able to get a copy of the Sodrel ad, but here's a link to a horrible Google Video that someone took by recording, I kid you not, their television screen.
Want to know just how out of touch with reality Mike Sodrel is? He says "huge strides have been made in improving technology in Iraq and that most of the country has been secured." And the only difference between the war in Iraq and WWII? "[Nazis] wanted to dominate us, and these fascists want to exterminate us."
He spent more time discussing in-depth the "fair tax," which he favors. Sodrel explained that the fair tax would abolish many kinds of taxes and eliminate the IRS.
Those taxes would be replaced with a 23 percent federal sales tax on all goods purchased in the United States.
Some spectacular polling data is about to come out from Constituent Dynamics, an independent pollster that is currently in the field in all three competitive Hoosier Congressional Districts.
We're not going to get independent data on these races very often, and certainly not all at the same time. The project, Majority Watch, has just finished polling 22 of the top 30 Congressional races in the country. The results show 13 Democratic pickups. 3 others are within the margin of error.
Yet Hill, by lowering gas prices at just one station, has single-handedly done more to help suffering drivers than Sodrel has in 2 years. For the record, Sodrel is fanatic pro-business and scoffs at the notion the oil industry should face regulations over recent price gouging. He maintains this position despite all major oil companies reporting record profit margins in almost every subsequent financial quarter.
Sodrel clearly has more loyalties to his politics than constituents on this issue. Considering the spirit of Lee Hamilton, who set the standard for the 9th District, Sodrel's stance is grossly out of step with southern Indiana voters.
Hill's gas gimmick, despite its dubious nature, effectively sent his campaign's chief message out loud and clear: Congress has done nothing to alleviate the pressure of gas prices on the public. Whether this is a cheap attempt to win back his House seat, or a sincere promise to fight the issue once elected, Hill has found his campaign's clarion call.
So Baron Hill is pumping gas to make a point about energy costs? How about we look at both Baron Hill's and Mike Sodrel's records on energy. Reader, you decide who is trying to alleviate our country’s energy problems.
Baron Hill's Record on Energy
- Hill voted against an ethanol mandate and legislation that promoted the use of renewable sources of energy including solar, wind, geothermal and hydroelectricity. H.R. 4503, Roll Call 241, 6/15/04.
- Hill voted against the bi-partisan Energy Policy Act of 2004, even though 46 Democrats supported the bill that would have put into practice a comprehensive national policy for energy conservation, research and development. H.R. 4503, Roll Call 241, 6/15/04.
- Held captive by far-left environmental groups, Hill has consistently opposed exploring for domestic sources of energy. H.R. 4, Roll Call 320, 8/2/01; H.AMDT.298, roll call 317, 8/1/01; H.R. 6, roll call 145, 4/11/03; H.AMDT.69, Roll Call 135, 4/10/03.
Mike Sodrel's Record on Energy
- The Energy Policy Act of 2005, H.R. 6: Mike Sodrel voted for a comprehensive energy bill to decrease foreign energy imports and promote domestic sources. This bill was the first major energy plan passed by Congress in over 14 years and takes a balance approach of conservation, efficiency, production and the promotion of renewable and alternative energy.
- Increasing Domestic Production, H.R. 4318: Mike Sodrel is a cosponsor of H.R. 4318 to allow for oil and gas exploration on the Outer Continental Shelf. A compromise-version of this bill passed the House on June 29, 2006, that protects sensitive areas along the United States coast but still allow for exploration in U.S. waters. One of the reasons foreign energy imports have increased is domestic production has declined due to ban on oil and gas exploration off the U.S. coast.
- Encouraging Renewable Fuels Infrastructure: There are an estimated 8 million flex-fuel vehicles on the road today and about 125,000 in Indiana alone. These flex-fuel vehicles can run on regular unleaded gasoline or renewable fuels such as E-85 -- 85 percent ethanol, with no modifications to the vehicle engine. Rep. Sodrel supported legislation to use funds collected from violations of the corporate average fuel economy or CAFE standards to provide grants for installation of E-85 pumps to help consumers have more options at the pump. HR 5534 7/24/2006 RC 396.
Representative Chris Chocola, easily re-elected two years ago from the district centered in South Bend, Ind., is battling a Democrat, Joe Donnelly, in a race so tight that several people offered Mr. Chocola their sympathies on the campaign trail this week. "You doing O.K.?""a bank executive asked at a groundbreaking for a small manufacturing company. Mr. Chocola replied, "It's an exercise in democracy."
Funny how it was a bank executive, not, you know, an ordinary person.
Mr. Chocola began advertising in March, rather than in May as he has in his three previous races. The attacks and counterattacks have been swift and nasty. In one recent round, the Chocola campaign charged that Mr. Donnelly, who owns a printing and rubber stamp company, had paid his property taxes late 15 times."Joe Donnelly wants to raise our taxes," the ad warned. "Even worse, he's delinquent paying his own."
Mr. Donnelly's advertisement pointed out that the company Mr. Chocola once ran, which manufactures products for the agricultural industry, had itself missed a tax payment of $67 one year. "But hypocrisy is normal in Washington," the ad said, concluding, "It’s time for a new congressman." ... The strategic imperative facing the Republicans, many analysts say, is clear: transform each competitive race from a national referendum on Mr. Bush and one-party Republican rule into a choice between two individuals -- and define the Democratic challengers as unacceptable.
On IN-09:
In southeastern Indiana, Baron Hill, a Democrat who is trying to reclaim the Congressional seat he lost two years ago to Representative Mike Sodrel, held an event at a gas station where he pumped fuel at a 2004 price, $1.80, rather than $2.79.
"People are angry," Mr. Hill said. "They want to know why we're paying $3 a gallon and Congress is giving tax breaks to oil companies."
Hill repeated his single-issue debate challenge, saying that Thursday night's 10 minutes about energy, three minutes about the environment, and zero minutes on health care weren't enough. ...
Sodrel and Hill in particular seem unlikely to budge on this issue, although public pressure and time seem to have a way of bridging such gaps. Still, there's no love lost between these two guys, and they may see little reason for compromise.
I don't know, zero minutes on health care would be just about right for Sodrel's liking, I bet.
In today's Journal Gazette, Washington Bureau chief Sylvia Smith reported, "When Hoosiers vote in November, their ballot choices will decide more than their representatives in Washington for the next two years. Indiana will likely determine whether Republicans remain in charge of the House."
Political observers early this year gauged Democratic chances of a House takeover by hinging them on the scope of the election---whether or not voters would frame the choice in national or local terms. But now, Republicans are embracing the national frame, even using it against their Democratic opponents. The NRCC began running a television ad in IN-08 Friday that asks, if Democrats took control of the House, whether Democrat Brad Ellsworth would support Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. "She and other Democrats want to raise your taxes, cut and run in Iraq, and give amnesty to illegal immigrants," it said. (IOM has requested a copy of the ad from the NRCC.)
But for the GOP, it's a tactic that requires voters to apply guilt by association---to a candidate that has never even served with Pelosi. It is either indicative of polling data that shows national figures like Pelosi as intensely disliked in Indiana, or a complete lack of issues with which to attack Ellsworth legitimately. It has to be hard for Chris Chocola to credibly charge that Joe Donnelly "opposed the ethanol bill" when he has no voting record in Congress. By that stretch, it's even more incredulous to suggest Ellsworth should have to justify the ideology of Nancy Pelosi.
In IN-09, though Mike Sodrel has the luxury of Baron Hill's tangible, 6-year long voting record, he too is deploying the same tactic. During the WTIU debate last week, Sodrel said Republican leaders were "from the heartland of America...If this House turns over, Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the House, from San Francisco, California. The likely Majority Leader would be Steny Hoyer, from Maryland. If you look at the various committee chairs, you're basically taking the leadership from the heartland of America to the coasts. And I think that has to be something you consider when you are considering who you are voting for in this election."
By running against the party, instead of the party's candidate, Hoosier Republicans are constructing straw men, imaginary candidates that need not accurately reflect the actual views of the actual candidates.
But are they also inadvertently nationalizing what they so wanted to be a local election?
Former first lady Barbara Bush will come to Sellersburg this month to raise money for U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel, who is battling for a second term against Democrat Baron Hill.
The Sept. 12 event will be held at the home of Bill and Teresa Boyd and will cost at least $250 per couple to attend, according to an invitation to the event.
For $1,500, a couple can attend an exclusive reception and have their photos taken with Bush, who is the mother of President Bush.
Barbara Bush is the latest in a long line of top Republicans to help Sodrel raise money. Most recently the current first lady, Laura Bush, raised about $200,000 for Sodrel at an event at Huber’s Orchard & Winery in Starlight.
Here's the entirety of the 9th District Congressional race in WMA and MP3 formats. Hopefully I will have up the full-length video by tomorrow.Click here for video.
The first (and maybe last) 9th CD debate is tonight! "WTIU News Director Chuck Carney will moderate. Panelists asking questions will be Bob Zaltsberg of The Herald-Times, Jim Shella of WISH-TV in Indianapolis and Lesley Stedman Weidenbener of the Louisville Courier-Journal," according to WTIU's website.
Unfortunately, I'm not in range of WTIU, and they don't broadcast online. Anyone out there that can help me snag some clips? Anyone?
UPDATE:I will have audio of the entire debate posted immediately after it wraps up tonight, but everything's better in color...
The US Attorney's Office is weighing whether or not Baron Hill will violate the law next Tuesday when he plans to pump gas for motorists at $1.80/gallon, the price it was in 2004 when he left office. A similar campaign gimmick by a Democratic candidate in Kentucky---where he pumped gas for $1.20/gallon, the average price when his opponent took office in 1994---was pursued by the Fed after accusations of "vote buying." The 1973 law in question prohibits "any payment or offer of payment that is made to a would-be voter for voting."
Oh, blessid were the good ol' days when Mike Sodrel sat innocently, in view of CSPAN cameras, behind Jean Schmidt when she told Jack Murtha, an opponent of the Iraq war and a Marine Corps Vietnam hero that won the Broze Star, two Purple Hearts, the Navy Distinguished Service Medal, and the Vietnamese Cross of Gallantry, that "cowards cut and run, Marines never do." The remarks caused national uproar and Schmidt was forced to apologize.
And judging from the Web sites of other Republicans in close races, many would prefer to make the Iraq issue disappear between now and November.
Consider the campaign Web site of Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-Ind.), who faces a serious opponent in Democrat Baron Hill, a former House member. On the "Issues" portion of his campaign site, Sodrel is proud to describe his stands on border security, gas prices and energy, tax relief, creating jobs, veterans, health care, supporting small business, and agriculture. As of yesterday evening, there was no entry for Iraq on the site, though he does discuss the issue on his House Web site.
The first (and perhaps last) 9th CD debate will be next Thursday, August 31, from 8 to 9 PM on WTIU. Though there was widespread speculation that Baron Hill would pull out when the format was changed from single to multi-topic, he has decided to participate. Hill explained his intentions yesterday in the News-Tribune:
I took that message of change to heart when I proposed that we dismiss the old, tired structure of broad-topic debates that allows very little quality time on any particular issue and are put together in a way that makes sure no one learns anything new. My initial proposal was to have a debate about energy issues -- particularly the current gas price crisis -- and what we can do about it in the short-term and in the long-term. Through the media, I heard from Mike Sodrel's campaign that he did not want to agree on one issue and one debate because there were many other "more important" issues. I then agreed to a media-sponsored proposal for a series of four debates around the district that would devote needed time and attention to four major issues facing our state and our nation. I agreed with that proposal and even offered four topics for the series – energy policy and our current gas crisis, values, healthcare, and a fourth debate focused on the economy. My campaign even had a signed agreement with WTIU for that first debate.
Over the weekend I read some newspaper reports that indicated that I was unwilling to debate, or even backing out of previously agreed upon debates. Nothing could be further from the truth! Not only do I want debates and have agreed upon a series of debates, but I want those debates to focus on issues that people care about and conducted in a way that the voters will really know the positions of the candidates on those key issues. I don't believe that a typical debate with three candidates that covers the universe of issues is informative, educational or even particularly useful. Between the political posturing, the two minute answers with one minute rebuttals, and the introductions and closings, we might get to spend four whole minutes on any single issue. I don't know about you, but when I go to fill up my car and pull $50 out of my wallet, it certainly makes me think this issue deserves more than four minutes in what could possibly be the only debate among the candidates for Congress in Indiana's 9th District.
As matters currently stand, Democrats should take over at least four seats without trouble -- including the seat of former Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Tex.) (see below). These Democrat takeovers would include political comebacks by two former congressmen -- Baron Hill (D-Ind.) and Ken Lucas (D-Ky.) -- and the loss of Rep. Jim Kolbe's (R-Ariz.) seat, whose primary is not yet settled.
Novak's Ratings: Republican-Held House Seats In Play
The two signed the pledge Friday, promising to conduct campaigns "marked by respect for my opponent, civility in debate, and focus on what I regard as the important issues of the campaign."
The candidates signed the pledge at the request of the interfaith Monroe County Religious Leaders group.
...
"My definition of a clean campaign is one that does not involve lying or distorting the facts," he said. "Comparing differences on issues is fair campaigning."
Cam Savage, Sodrel's campaign manager, said the incumbent signed the document "because he's never engaged in personal attacks and won't in this election either."
Savage said voters have a right to know how each candidate stands on particular issues so they can make an informed decision in the voting booth.
"Both candidates in this race have voting records, so it's easy to back up what is said," Savage said. "As long as the statements are truthful and worded with proper sourcing, then it's clean campaigning.
Savage said he did not expect the pledge to eliminate negative ads by either side.
"Negative does not necessarily mean unclean or untruthful," he said. "Tough ads, which some might call negative, can allow people to see a clear contrast between two candidates."
The planned public television debate on Aug. 31 now looks less certain, as Democratic candidate Baron Hill has yet to agree to a changed format:
Sources with the Hill campaign said Thursday that unless the sponsor, PBS affiliate WTIU, changes the format from a "general topics" to a "single issue" debate — Hill will not be in the station's Bloomington studio Aug. 31.
According to Phil Meyer, WTIU production manager, Hill's demands are unlikely to be met.
The Hill campaign wants four debates, all sponsored by WTIU and each on a separate issue. Originally, that's what the station had offered. However, the station retracted the offer Thursday morning because dates could not be agreed upon by all parties.
The station is now offering only one, Aug. 31 debate, with a wide open, all topics format, Meyer said. Incumbent Republican Mike Sodrel agreed to the new offer.
Campaign spokesman Michael O'Connor said Hill would not debate under those conditions.
Hill wants a chance to debate topics in depth, O'Connor said Thursday.
The incumbent, Sodrel, built his family's small transport company into a very successful business. Sodrel is well liked, with a reputation for straight talk. But this time, he's running in a year when more voters lean Democratic.
Right now, Hill is running ahead of Sodrel, according to published polls. But, like Indiana basketball, things can heat up in the last period.
Louisville Courier-Journal's Weidenbener opines: "Recently, I spent a couple of days on the campaign trail" with Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) and ex-Rep. Baron Hill (D) and was "struck by how much can change in just two years. I'm talking about campaign style here, not the heady stuff" where Sodrel and Hill "stand on various" nat'l and int'l issues, what nat'l groups "will weigh into their race with ads or how much money has been raised for their races." Instead, it was the "reversal of campaign roles that stood out to me."
Traveling with Sodrel, it was "interesting to see him as a congressman, as the candidate who wasn't just making campaign stops but holding official events, too." That's not to say that Hill "has lost his penchant for the campaign trail. He continues to project a congressional image, whether he's actually the incumbent or not." Hill "enjoyed a more relaxed approach, one that takes him into a particular county or community for an entire day." Hill said this style of campaigning "suits him" and is one he'll "maintain." Of course, election to Congress "would bring back those offical duties, the ones that sometimes interrupt a relaxed day of campaigning" (8/13).
Mike Sodrel and Baron Hill both appeared today (in separate interviews) on WTHR's Insiders segment:
Mike Sodrel thinks that 
