By RYAN NEES and BRIAN A. HOWEY

INDIANAPOLIS - The final moments of 20th Century politics ticked away on Aug. 10, 2006. On that day, Brad Ellsworth was pledging not to take a Congressional pay raise. U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel was blogging from the U.S.-Mexican border. The RNCC was accusing Baron Hill of comparing immigrants to rodents. Gov. Mitch Daniels was putting the finishing touches on Indiana's strategic energy plan.

For on the very next day and 500 miles away, U.S. Sen. George Allen, R-Va., and a prohibitive favorite for re-election as well as a poised 2008 presidential contender, was campaigning in Breaks, Va., when he spotted a 20-year-old James Webb for Senate volunteer, S.R. Sidarth, with a video cam (pictured top, left, with Sen. Allen).

"This fellow here, over here with the yellow shirt, macaca, or whatever his name is. He's with my opponent. He's following us around everywhere. And it's just great," Allen said to amused supporters.

Within hours, Sidarth's video made it onto You Tube, the quote taken as an ethnic slur (macaca is a monkey and an African racial slur). It quickly became one of the most watched videos on the internet, and within days became the fodder for the cable news outlets and networks. Webb would go on to defeat Sen. Allen by less than 1 percent, and the Senate would go Democratic 51-49, shifting the balance of power in the United States. It's one reason why TIME Magazine cited "You" and YouTube as its person of the year.

Whereas President Lyndon B. Johnson's "Daisy" ad (showing a little girl plucking petals off a daisy followed by a mushroom cloud) opened the era of the 30-second ad (playing only once on Sept. 7, 1964, during the "Movie of the Week,") Simon Rosenberg of the New Democratic Network, believes "Macaca" essentially opened the era of 21st Century politics. "I believe the great video that is going to change the election of 2008 is probably going to be generated by an average person," Rosenberg told the seventh annual L. Keith Bulen Symposium on American Politics at IUPUI on Monday. He called the "Macaca" YouTube video "a marginal event" that literally changed the balance of power in the Senate.

You ain't seen nothin' yet

And, as President Reagan would say, "You ain't seen nothin' yet." The media itself is changing in the United States. Rosenberg believes that newspapers as we know them will be gone within 10 years. It's one reason why Indianapolis Star Editor Dennis Ryerson is replacing reporters and photographers with reader-generated content. It's the reason Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi conducted one of the first true American web campaign components.

"We've left the broadcast era of political communications and we're moving to one that is much different," Rosenberg said. "Broadcast was sort of top-down from one to many. We now have a media environment that is very, very different. Let's talk about new distribution systems. When we grew up, there were three televison channels. And now, what are we facing? How many do I have in my home? TIVO is very shortly going to allow you to start recording video off the internet, meaning you will have bilions of channels on your televison, not hundreds. So the most significant thing happening is thst we're moving from a low brandwith internet to a high bandwith internet."

Rosenberg, a former soldier in Bill Clinton's Little Rock War Room, explained, "Before it was text and photos. But now we're seeing high bandwith activities. You can move onto the internet with music, television and film. We are now entering the YouTube Internet Age. You can see broadband at home is crossing into Americans with huge access. There is 50 percent broadband penetration. If it's 60 percent of households, it will be 70-75 percent of people."

And mobile media

Then there is mobile media. "The next two years, there's going to be an extraordinary explosion of mobile media - cell phones, mobile phones, internet," Rosenberg said. "Forty million people will have access by the end of 2008 to broadband video on their telephones. That's a third of the voters who are going to be able to look at real time video on You Tube. That will be a rapid response toll for a political campaign. A huge part of the internet is user-generated content that people are sharing."

And, Rosenberg predicted, "We have also arrived at an era of cheap new tools. This is very important. In 2002, there were three million blogs. More Democrats get their news from blogs than from any other source other than traditional mainstream. This is not a fringe media any more, this is a dominant media form."

He called Markos Moulitsas Zúniga, who blogs on the Daily Kos "the most influential Democratic operative in America today." As Michael Krempasky of RedStates.Org observed, "Like him or hate him, Kos has a lot of power behind him and opportunity before him. He is helping Democrats all across the country to feel engaged, and have an impact." Indiana Democrats hosted the "Taking Down Words" blog that played to the choir, while earning Jennifer Wagner the reputation of being, perhaps, the nastiest woman in Indiana politics, though the blog's impact of how many votes it attracted and candidates elected for the party are unknown.

Tivo killed the 30-second star

But the real game changer is Tivo. Several years ago at DePauw University, HPR asked Dr. James Thurber of American University about the impact of the TV synthesizer that allows users to access any TV show at any time, and filter out the commercials. As the 20th Century slipped way, Thurber was unable to gauge the impact of Tivo.

But Rosenberg said, "With Tivo, we have an enormous increase in DVRs - digital video recording - in home. Almost half of all voters will have the ability to skip all televison commercials in 2008. We all know the percentage of people who will skip all political television commercials. It's going to be 100 percent. This is the end of the 30-second spot. A minority of people watching television at any moment in 2008 will be watching live broadcast television, with the incredible penetration of cable and satellite and DVR, we are now entering a period where 30 second spots are no longer going to be the dominant form of political communication. Who's run a political campaign in that environment? It's wide open for all of us as we go forward."

As HPR reported on Nov. 16, Indiana House Democrats went mostly to direct mail in 2006, sending out more than 2 million pieces in 170 different mailings. House Republicans increased their direct mail from 700,000 in 2004 to 1.6 million in 2006.

"In a primary, direct mail is clearly a much better method than TV," Democratic Chairman Dan Parker said. "We know who's going to vote in a primary." But Parker refused to say that TV is a dead medium. "TV saved (State Rep.) Tim Harris," Parker said, adding that using local network affiliates is inefficient. "They spent a lot of money on Indianapolis TV to reach 8,000 people out of a million."

Rosenberg notes, "This year Google will sell as many ads as all of ABC. Google has already become one of the major media advertisers in all the world. The ads can be microtargeted, literally zip plus four. It's a huge differentiation. Internet advertising is really going to be transforming politics."

IndianaOnMessage Review

Which gets us to the project we offered up a month ago. Western High School junior Ryan Nees, who forged the IndianaOnMessage website that has partnered with HPR, for the first time in Indiana history, compiled most of the legislative and congressional TV and radio ads that aired in Indiana during the 2006 election cycle.

As innovative as this project was, if Rosenberg is to be believed, 2006 may be the last cyle of the 30-second ad, which CNN reported ran in the Evansville TV market five hours after the polls closed on Dec. 7. There was $2.1 billion spent on TV advertising nationally during the 2006 election cycle, a record, with Indiana congressional candidates spending more than $13.4 million, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Another $12 million was spent by independent groups such as MoveOn (which spent $245,000 against U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola) and political parties, where national Republicans gave the Indiana GOP $1.1 million.

Vanderbilt University Prof. John Geer, editor of The Journal of Politics, also appeared at the Bulen Symposium as a defender of attack ads. "They have increased dramatically in the last 40 years," said Geer because the "parties are polarizing" in a "highly competitive environment." He said that attack ads flourish because the "news media is a huge culprit."

"Negative ads get news media coverage," Geer said. "Journalists and pundits look for the most outrageous ad and talk about it. It's the craziest, most vicious ads that get attention." In the 2004 Bush-Kerry ads, the "swift boat ads" got far more media attention than those discussing the Iraq War.

A good example was an RNCC ad (above) run on behalf of U.S. Rep. John Hostettler that accused Speaker Nancy Pelosi of planning to install the "homosexual agenda."

Geer, however, defends attack ads, noting that 70 percent of the Declaration of Independence was an attack on King George III. Geer said that between 1960 and 2000, about 75 percent of political ads were attack ads with issues, compared to 50 percent of positive ads. Documentation was 8 to 1 more likely in a negative ad than a positive one. "Attack ads have to have a basis of truth, whereas positive ads get away with all kinds of stuff."

HPR and IndianaOnMessage provides this analysis for political ads in the 2006 election cycle.

IN-02: Ads don't have to be memorable.

Some ads took on a nearly cult-like following among activists and junkies alike, notably the DCCC's "Chocolate for Chocola," an ad depicting a series of love notes exchanged between the Congressman and oil tycoons, who came complete with cigars and cowboy hats, bearing gifts of flowers and chocolates. But by and large, the ads were forgettable. Though for Democratic media consultants (like the Fenn Group, whoich cut Donnelly's ads, and Murphy Putnam Shorr, the firm employed by the DCCC in the Second), that's not the point. Success, they argue, isn't intrinsic to the memorability of the ads. Moving public opinion is done at a subconscious level that depends not on emotion or humor (tactics often employed by corporate ad makers on Madison Street), but repetition and "persuasion".

The repetition required makes it a more expensive method, both because it's better suited to broadcast television and because the ad has to be run many more times, and makes the ad consultant's job both far easier and far less creative … but it seemed to work in IN-02. Voters couldn't pick out an individual ad that convinced them of Chris Chocola's special interest-back-slapping kind of corruption, but the impression was clearly cemented.

Republicans: Trash Joe

In any other year, Chris Chocola's series of factually devastating tax attack ads might have sunk Joe Donnelly's campaign. But their shear shrillness backfired on Chocola, and could have in fact been counterproductive to Chocola's cause, kindly reinforcing Donnelly's primary argument that Chocola was an out-of-touch negative politician, concerned less with people and more with his own power. Their nastiness turned voters off, even against Chocola. For a politician with little goodwill in the community, and whose career was due in large part to negative campaigning, the spots proved to be too nasty. Though a subjective line, Chocola undoubtedly crossed it.

Democrats: Too nice

Though much has been made (by journalists, primarily) about the nastiness of the Marion County Prosecutor's race, it should have been far nastier if Melina Kennedy hoped to win. She should have swung like a cudgel at Brizzi case after case of released murderer. It would have been easy, and the paper trail certainly voluminous enough to create the impression that Brizzi was weak on crime, that, in fact, he was personally responsible for part of the county's upswing in crime. In a high crime year, during a Democratic wave, in an increasingly Democratic county, it ps beguiling to contemplate how a well-funded candidate personally anointed by Bart Peterson managed to lose this race. The most profound, and expensive, problem was her television ads.

Instead of running thundering, grainy black-and-white ads linking Carl Brizzi to the most depraved of Indianapolis thugs, Kennedy's camp airedsophomoric ads that were weak both on production and message. When Brizzi's camp ran spots with tough-guy candidate Carl strutting down smoke-filled alleys, Kennedy responded by trying to frame the race as somehow a referendum on leadership style, not prosecutorial misjudgment and neglect, the only compelling (and abounding) reasons the voters had to oust Brizzi. Kennedy alleged that Brizzi's bad judgment allowed repeat criminals to walk out of jail and go on murderous rampages. How many of those criminals are walking Indianapolis neighborhoods now? It's a question that Kennedy never bothered to pose. Instead, she wasted one spot pointing out that the prosecutor's office employed 150 deputies who needed "direction [and] training." A radio ad -- I swear, I'm not making this up -- actually lectured voters on the fine points of asset forfeiture, a term they all "should know." It personified Kennedy's campaign perfectly.

Brizzi was the one candidate who distinctly moved from the 20th Century 30-second ads, to 21st Century internet ads. Developed by Carmel-based Media Soft, Brizzi supporters would get an e-mail with a link that read: "Click here to get a personal message from Carl Brizzi." They would then find Brizzi, with logos, talking directly to them. Or a deputy sheriff, or a three-part cartoon series. It was incredibly innovative stuff taken right out of the YouTube playbook, and available to be passed on from supporter to potential voter. "I don't know of anywhere else where there was a full web campaign," said Jennifer Hallowell, Brizzi's campaign manager and executive director of Indiana GOP. And the impact? "Hard to measure," Hallowell said. "We got some buzz off it. We heard from people who had them forwarded." Watch for more and more campaigns to go this route in 2007 and 2008.

Ellsworth ran an 'incumbent' campaign

Brad Ellsworth, congressman-elect in the 8th CD, ran a near-perfect incumbent campaign, despite the obvious: he was a challenger. Yet the lead that he started with he maintained throughout the campaign, ceding barely an inch. One of his best decisions was undoubtedly hiring Dixon-Davis Media Group, who went 9-0 nationally, winning Claire McCaskill's Missouri Senate race, two governorships, and seven other Congressional races. In the Ninth, Sodrel's media firm, Dawson McCarthy Nelson, went 4-4, and Baron Hill's, McMahon, Squier & Associates, went 3-2. Fenn Communications, which managed Donnelly's ads, won 7 of its 12 races. Chocola's firm, Stevens Reed Curcio & Potholm, won exactly half of its 14 races.

Lugar's positive message

Dick Lugar's ads got a fair bit of press simply because it was universally accepted that he didn't need to run media. So it was refreshing, then, when he spent millions to spur discussion and educate voters on the profound foreign policy and energy challenges confronting the nation. But some national Republicans must be wishing that Lugar had chipped in more to the NRSC (For perspective, at the end of October, Hillary Clinton had given $1 million dollars to the DSCC. Lugar had transferred $75,000 to the NRSC.), which could scarcely afford to go on the air in the expensive Philadelphia and New York media markets that might have put Tom Kean Jr. over the top against freshman New Jersey Democrat Bob Menendez, a win that would have kept Lugar the chairman ofthe Senate Foreign Relations Committee. It was a bitter irony for the party that had enjoyed, even boasted about, 3-to-1 (or greater) cash advantages for years.

The Worst ad

In our view, the worst ad of the cycle was Francie Metzger's assault ad against State Rep. Teri Austin. It ran grainy footage of immigrants that accused Austin of aiding and abetting lawbreaker foreigners. It was a Republican attempt to exploit the greatest 2006 campaign fantasy: that immigration would deliver pluralities. The problem is that the issue is largely a federal one, not one where the Indiana General Assembly played a huge role. At the Congressional level, the lasting legacy of U.S. Reps. Chocola, Sodrel and Hostettler is that Latinos voted 70 percent Democratic, up about 20 percent over 2004. Not only did these Hoosier Republicans lose, they may have alienated for many election cycles to come the fastest growing demographic group in the nation. Rosenberg eexplained, "This country has become more southern and western, more suburban and exurban; the nation more spanish-speaking and immigrant. The transformation of our people is creating is a new kind of politics: 70 of the 100 largest cities are located in the South and West. In 2032, if the Census projections continue, Arizona will have as many Electoral College seats as New York; Hispanics will be 25 percent of the American electorate. Today, they represent 9 percent."

Best radio ad

U.S. Rep. Mark Souder posted a radio ad advising Tom Hayhurst supporters on how to get to Grabill. He supplied directions from both Fort Wayne and New Haven, pointing out cemeteries where his ancestors are buried and where to park when they got there. It was vintage Mark Souder, who despite a mid-October scare, cruised easily to victory against a well-financed opponent.

Epilogue

Simon Rosenberg explained: "Remember how the Boomers changed American culture? We've got a new generation coming along that is just as big in numerical amounts called the Millenials, 26 and younger. The way they do politics, the way they do media - they don't read newspapers, they live off these small devices. Any movement has got to focus on Millenials. General assumptions guiding American politics are going to come to an end. Both political parties and both ideological movements are at the beginning of the dawn of a new era."

The Howey Political Report and IndianaOnMessage are inviting readers to participate in an interactive project. Most of the legislative and Congressional campaign TV and radio ads are posted on the HPR/IOM websites. We're asking readers to tell us which campaign ads were the best, the worst, and the most innovative and why. E-mail your comments to brianhowey@howeypolitics.com or ryannees@gmail.com. Nees created the IndianaOnMessage website that, for the first time in Indiana history, compiled most of the campaign TV and radio ads in one place. "In the past, political campaigns could put whatever they wanted on the air and after election day, all was forgotten," said HPR Publisher Brian A. Howey. "This year, all will not be forgotten. HPR and IndianaOnMessage will present a thorough review of these ads and what impact they had on the 2006 elections." The survey results will be published in the Dec. 14 edition of The Howey Political Report and will be posted online at www.howeypolitics.com and www.indianaonmessage.com

Dwight Singer's about as iconoclastic as they come in Howard County politics. He coaches basketball and, when the leaves are still falling, is the announcer at Western High School football games that hundreds religiously flock to every Friday. This spring, after several decades as a stalwart member of the Howard County Council, he decided to mix up his monotonous public service a bit, vacating his council seat for a run at County Commissioner. Cycle after cycle, he was utterly unbeatable. He had not lost even once.

But last night, first-time candidate Democrat Dave Trine, a Kokomo police officer and small business owner, beat Singer by 63 votes—the first county-wide election any Democrat has won in Howard County in six cycles.

The wave had washed ashore.

...

State Representative John Smith practically drowned in it. Ron Herrell, the State Representative whom Smith narrowly ousted in 2004, beat Smith in a rematch by almost 13 points-the largest margin in any of Indiana's Democratic pickup legislative districts, and by far the biggest showing Herrell's made in his career, which has been riddled with nail biters. The win gave Democrats one of the three districts they needed to reclaim the lower chamber.

...

Howard County Republican Party chairman Brad Bagwell resigned in disgrace within mere hours of getting more bad news: returns showed Joe Donnelly thrashing Chris Chocola by fourteen points in Kokomo.

In Howard County, Democrats shocked all by winning a majority of straight ticket voters-50.2% to the GOP's 48.6%-accounting for over 20% of all ballots cast. In 2004, straight ticket Dems made up just 17% of the total ballots. The GOP, in contrast, saw the overall percentage of their straight ticket voters decline four percentage points, from nearly 24% to just under 20%.

It's true that there's an overall increase in straight ticket voting nationwide, and in actuality the numbers might not bode well for Donnelly, more indicative of a wave Election than the sort of support he'll need if he hopes to win a second term in 2008--when the Congressman-elect will likely face a better Republican candidate in a better Republican year. Voters who went straight ticket were sending a message to President Bush, and might not have been delivering a ringing personal endorsement for Donnelly.

In the end, though, the Kokomo count put Donnelly 1,332 votes above Chocola, reversing the eight-point deficit he suffered just two years ago in the tiny splinter of the city that was cut out by legislative Democrats hoping to leverage working class factory workers and fatten Democratic margins. This year the gerrymandering finally worked after two straight losses in the demographically advantageous district, and helped to offset the huge disparities that Chocola racked up in Carroll and other rural counties.

The numbers were so convincing, apparently exceeding the Democrat's turnout models, that the Donnelly campaign had deemed the race won well before any media outlet had, less than three hours after the polls had closed.

It wasn't the sort of confidence that bode well for Chris Chocola or Dwight Singer.

The Howey Political Report is calling a 54-46 Democratic State House. Ed Feighenbaum has it at 52-48, Jim Shella at 51-49, Eric Berman at 51-49, and Abdul-Hakim Shabazz 52-48. All give the majority to the Democrats.

Feighenbaum, Howey, and Shella are all giving the 2nd to Joe Donnelly, the 8th to Ellsworth, and the 9th to Sodrel. Howey's going out on a limb in the Seventh: Dickerson upsets Carson.

On Saturday, Chris Chocola's congressional campaign made 40,030 voter contacts---the third highest total for a Congressional campaign in the nation.

$4,895,490 in independent expenditures have been made in the Ninth through 11/1. It's the 7th most expensive House campaign in the nation. (excluding CA-50 numbers, which include the special)

In only one other Congressional District (PA-06) has the DCCC spent more than than it has in the Bloody Eighth so far: $2,126,465.

Polls close at 6 PM tomorrow.

By my count, it's the first independent poll that shows a Republican leading in any of the Big Three all year long. 46% Sodrel, 44% Hill, 5% Schansberg, 4% undecided.

Much has been made of Eric Schansberg's potential spoiler effect---it's been widely suspected that he'd siphon away disaffected conservatives from Sodrel---but this poll indicates that his supporters are disproportionately liberal. Perhaps Schansberg's attention to the working poor is wooing them?

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 11/03/2006 08:12:00 PM

Chuck Todd and John Mercurio see "no reason" why Democrats won't run the table in Indiana next Tuesday. The predictions came on today's episode of HotlineTV. Mercurio said that IN-09 would be "by far" the closest...But Donnelly will be a "one-term wonder," the two say, doomed to be picked off easily in 2008...

My latest column for the Howey Political Report, on Chocola's faltering ad strategy.

The race in Indiana's Second district might best be described with that old playground adage: "I'm rubber, you're glue. Whatever you say bounces off of me and sticks to you."

Chris Chocola found that out the hard way in July, when he began running television ads claiming that "Joe Donnelly wants to raise our taxes but he has a problem paying his own." The ads ticked off a list of fifteen late payments Donnelly made that "resulted in thousands of dollars of penalties" while he was donating hundreds of thousands of dollars to his 2004 campaign. The facts were damaging, and in any other year, might have been crippling. But Chocola found that voters didn't care much, and a South Bend Tribune / WSBT / Research 2000 poll showed that a whole 71% of respondents said that the late taxes didn't make them less likely to support the Democrat. This the result of months of opposition research and well over a million dollars in television and radio advertising that Chocola pumped in to the district.

Poll after poll, Donnelly's unfavorable numbers stayed generally steady, moving up just 5 points in the course of a month of withering attacks, but remaining below 40%. And Chocola's unfavs continued to suffer, as the stench of his campaign rubbed off on his polling. They in fact balanced his favorable numbers, at about 45-45% for three polls in a row.

In short, Chocola's once again depending on negative campaigning, gambling that his attacks will stick. But for two months, his strategy has floundered, vetoed by a harshly anti-GOP environment. Last month Charlie Cook characterized it in this way: Democrats are Teflon, and Republicans are Velcro.

The two-term Republican incumbent is in office thanks almost entirely to the negativity he deployed against Jill Long Thompson and Joe Donnelly, but he did so to the detriment of developing any sort of pool of personal affection with his constituents---he's never even cracked 55% of the general election vote.
When times get tough, Chris Chocola has little to fall back on. What's a Congressman to do?

For Chocola, his only recourse is to continue hitting Donnelly, hoping something will stick.

So "imagine this," began a Chocola radio ad unveiled this week, "your employer deducts payroll taxes from your paycheck, but instead of sending your taxes to the government, your employer keeps them for himself. Sounds illegal, doesn't it? Well it is, but Joe Donnelly did exactly that."

The ad alleges that Donnelly's rubber stamp company, Marking Solutions, pocketed $90,000 of its employees' payroll taxes, withholding them from the government. Upon discovering the fraud, the ad says, the IRS put a lien on the company.

But Chocola's tried this trick before. It didn't work. It's unlikely to work now.

In any other cycle, it might. And you can bet the same narrative will be dragged out in 2008, and deployed against a Congressman Donnelly.

In way of explanation to everyone who keeps signing up for the email list over and over again, thinking that there must be some logical technical error explaining the lack of e-mails being sent: Yeah, I'm just not terribly enthusiastic about constantly sending those out in addition to all of the other work the site requires. If only there were more time in the day.

You're on the list, I'm just neglecting you, is all.

Also, does anyone have thoughts on what I should do with this thing after Election Day? Let it die abruptly, or slowly starve it of life? Or, I suppose, expand it and branch off. Comment here.

Pollster has some pretty cool polling flash features that have been tracking results in IN-02, -08, and -09.

Audio - MP3

The publisher of the Howey Political Report made an appearance on NPR's All Things Considered this evening, giving national listeners some insight into Indiana's competitive Congressional seats.

Whoa. On 11/1, the DCCC spent a total of $1,218,064.

- $212,019 media buy supporting Hill
- $636,057 media buy opposing Sodrel
- $5,025 for positive production (GMMB)
- $5,025 for negative production (GMMB)
- $9,950 for negative production (GMMB)
- $87,497 media buy supporting Hill
- $262,491 media buy opposing Sodrel

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 11/02/2006 04:56:00 PM

I've updated the HPR Legislative race rankings...there's been quite a bit of movement, so check them out.

Also, two of Indiana's three endangered Republicans made the WaPo's list of worst run campaigns:

Rep. Chris Chocola (R-Ind.): Chocola's poor campaign actually began at the end of last cycle when he refused to go negative against Democrat Joe Donnelly -- choosing instead to run positive ads touting his own accomplishments. As a result, Donnelly ended the 2004 contest with high name identification and strong favorable ratings -- a nice starting point for the 2006 rematch. Even so, Chocola would not likely be in the dire straits he currently finds himself had he been willing to exploit his financial advantage over Donnelly earlier this year. At the end of June, Chocola had $1.5 million in the bank compared with $445,000 for Donnelly. Chocola never took advantage of that money gap and allowed Donnelly to rapidly catch him on the financial front. The result? Chocola is one of the most endangered incumbents in the country.
...
Rep. John Hostettler (R-Ind.): The funny thing about Hostettler is that he has run no worse a campaign this year than in elections past. He has always disavowed fundraising and paid political professionals; his sister runs his campaign office and the congressman himself serves as the lead (and only) political consultant for the race. Unfortunately for Hostettler, that 1970s approach to political campaigns has run into a buzz saw named Brad Ellsworth (D) this time around. Despite Ellsworth's obvious strengths as a candidate (a sheriff he boasts strong law enforcement credentials as well as being conservative on social issues), Hostettler never adjusted to the seriousness of this race and seems headed for a bad loss on Tuesday.

The US Chamber of Commerce has setup websites archiving their television advertisements on behalf of select political candidates---in Indiana, they'd be Mike Sodrel and Chris Chocola. Now they're promoting the sites with ads placed on newspaper websites (caps below). I've seen the tile ads on the South Bend Tribune and the Herald Times...

Video - WMV

Fox News clips from Bush's rally with Mike Sodrel. (6 minutes, 15mb)

Sorry about the slow blogging lately...Campaign ads are coming in upwards of 5-7 a day, and those take precedent...

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/28/2006 04:34:00 PM

From today's noon newscast of WTVW-TV FOX 7 in Evansville:

Anchor: 8th District Congressman John Hostettler is asking for an apology from some local media. The Republican incumbent was presented with the 2006 Homeland Defender Award by the mother of a New York firefighter who lost his life on 9/11. Hostettler said the Evansville Courier and Press ran a small mention of this award on the obituary page. Hostettler calls that a cold and thoughtless move.

Hostettler: This is a stain on the sacrifice made by those families. This is an insult to the people of this nation, and this is insensitive to the great patriotism that I have seen evidenced by the people of Indiana.

Anchor: Editors at the Courier and Press were unavailable for comment.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/24/2006 08:15:00 PM

After polling the Third last week, that NRCC has decided to buy ad time attacking Tom Hayhurst. $8,460 for production went to Anthem Media today, and $72,758.50 was paid to Strategic Media Services for the media buy.

Video - WMV

The second WISH-TV/Research 2000 poll (crosstabs) surveyed 400 LVs, MoE +/- 5%. Brizzi is leading Kennedy 50-42%, 8% undecided. In the 7th district, Julia Carson is leading Eric Dickerson 48-43%, with 9% undecided. Results from the 8th and 9th CDs will be coming this week....

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/23/2006 05:26:00 PM

A poll will be released today by SurveyUSA that shows Baron Hill four points ahead of Mike Sodrel...the data is not yet available online, but I'll post it when it is.

Committee chairmanships would be lost:

Indiana -- at least initially -- stands to lose more committee chairmen than it would gain in a power switch because the delegation is now dominated by Republicans, many of whom have been in Washington long enough to head committees.

Sen. Richard Lugar, for example, would lose his chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee if Democrats take control of the Senate. Rep. Steve Buyer, R-Monticello, would no longer head the House Veterans Affairs Committee if the GOP loses control of the House.

U.S. Reps. Dan Burton, R-Indianapolis, Mark Souder, R-Fort Wayne, and John Hostettler, R-Wadesville, would no longer run subcommittees under that scenario.
Indiana lawmakers might get two new leadership roles.

U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky, D-Merrillville, likely would take over the House panel that writes the annual spending bill for energy and water projects if Democrats control the speaker's office.

And Rep. Mike Pence, R-Columbus, could find opportunity in a GOP loss. If Republicans decide to shake up their leadership team, Pence -- who heads a group of House conservatives -- likely would be a candidate for one of the top spots.
Democratic leaders say Indiana likely would see its clout increase quickly if the party takes control in January. If the state delivers three of the 15 seats the Democrats needs to take the House, they say, the successful challengers might be rewarded with key committee assignments.

"I think it's been pretty much written in a lot of places that for Democrats to take a majority, they must be successful here in Indiana," said Dan Parker, chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party. "I'm hopeful that people remember that after the fact."

In today's edition of the Herald Times (online subscription only), Mike Leonard heaps some praise on this site. (Hat tips: Akard & Steve)

It might surprise some people that one of the best and most viewed Internet sites on Indiana politics is run by a 17-year-old high school student from the Kokomo suburbs if they didn't already know the name Ryan Nees.

In February, Nees, then a sophomore at Western High School, sued the city of Kokomo and won after Mayor Matt McKillip refused to turn over a municipal e-mail list that that Nees suspected was also being used for campaign mailings and other nongovernmental purposes.

Newspapers called Nees' dogged pursuit of his complaint a "major legal victory" and "a heroic effort for public access," and USA Today picked up on the story as well.

In August, the Society of Professional Journalists honored Nees and two professional journalists from Salt Lake City with their prestigious Sunshine Awards for "important contributions in the area of open government."

"That was certainly an honor to come from an organization for which I have a great deal of respect," Nees said last week from his Howard County home.

Interested in politics since the fifth grade and politically involved since age 13, the high school junior has been primarily involved with partisan politics and support for the Democratic Party. His indianaonmessage.com Web site attempts to be a nonpartisan site for commentary, poll data, spending and, perhaps most interesting, the viewing of television campaign ads. He has more than 100 ads archived and through various means manages to update his site frequently with the latest salvos from Democrats and Republicans.

"I spend an inordinate amount of time on it," he said with a chuckle. "At least 2-3 hours a day. You have to keep it fresh, so it takes time."

The word on the Web site is getting out, at least to political junkies. "It's a niche market, really," Nees said. "Campaign managers, journalists, lobbyists, lawyers. And fellow political junkies."

The site hit its highest daily peak last Wednesday with 700 views. Nees said he's been averaging 15,000-18,000 hits a month - a surprising total, really, considering that he doesn't advertise, and he manages to operate the site and run his own Web design business while maintaining an A average in his high school classes.

He's not especially outraged by the negative tone taken by Democrats and Republicans in the 2006 campaigns. "I don't see it as particularly worse than 2000 or 2004," he said. "But I certainly think it's dispiriting when there are ads that are clearly misleading and manipulative. Ultimately, though, it's democracy at work, and hopefully, at the end of the day, the truth comes through and people can make good decisions."

In Indiana's hotly contested congressional races, Nees sees Democrat Brad Ellsworth beating incumbent John Hostettler in the 8th District, challenger Joe Donnelly ousting Republican incumbent Chris Chocola in the 2nd, and the 9th District race between Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel and former Rep. Baron Hill as too close to call.

"The interesting dynamic has been how the 2nd District has overtaken the 9th in importance. Joe Donnelly has out-raised Baron Hill, and in the national Democrats' eyes, Donnelly has pushed Hill aside. Polls show him up 12 points on Chocola, and I don't see that happening in the 9th," Nees said.

"All three Republicans could win, too. They have a huge structural advantage. But, still, given all of that, they've only been beating the Democrats by inches, and now there's an intensely sour voter mood toward Republicans in general.

"I can't speak of a time in my lifetime when Democrats have been so well positioned to win," the 17-year-old said. "I love it as a political junkie. It's wonderful to be in such a hotly contested state."

Of course, even with all of his knowledge of the issues and experience in politics, Nees can't vote yet. It doesn't frustrate him all that much.

"I've learned there are more effective ways to make a difference beyond the voting booth," he said.

Does he see elective office in his own future? "I don't know. We'll see," he said. "With how nasty the environment is, I'm inclined to stay behind the scenes and be more of an observer than a participant."

At this point in his high school career, Nees hasn't even decided on what college he'll attend. He took an East Coast trip last summer and visited Yale, Brown and Georgetown. "I'm sure I'll be looking at political science as a major. If I go to a state school, then I'm thinking maybe a double major in political science and journalism. And then, possibly law after that.

"Law, journalism and political science," he added as an afterthought. "The three professions America hates most."

Video (Part One) - WMV | Video (Part Two) - WMV

Senator Lugar appeared on Fox News Sunday today to discuss Iraq.

Jack Colwell of the South Bend Tribune warned gitty Democrats today that "three weeks can be a lifetime in politics," and Chris Chocola may well pull it out.

...but we've been hearing this from Republicans for months. Hearing that once the mammoth GOP research team unloads their oppo data in negative ads, Democrats would be marginalized. Hearing that when the Republican financial advantage comes to bear, Dems would be pushed back. Hearing that gerrymandering and the GOP's GOTV program would create a firewall protecting the majority.

But in polling, Democrats have only continued to gain ground. GOP attacks (like Chocola's series of property tax ads) have largely bounced off. I'm not seeing Colwell's arguemnt:

Chocola, with more campaign funds, will seek to define Donnelly in less favorable terms and get undecided or wavering voters to conclude that Donnelly is not the change they would want.

Donnelly will not be hurt by "localization" of the race if he can encourage voters to react to the dreaded M-word, "Mitch."

The Toll Road deal of Gov. Mitch Daniels, unpopular in the district, is a factor favorable for Donnelly. Will many voters really in the final analysis cast a vote based on the Toll Road issue? Or on daylight time confusion? If they do, it will hurt Chocola.

Or will voters who have been skeptical about the economy decide that the drop in gas prices, the rise in the stock market and some other good economic news means that a vote for a Republican Congress, specifically a vote for Chocola, would be in their best interests?

Getting out the vote will be crucial. Even if the support is there, it won't matter if the supporters don't actually vote.

What would have happened last Tuesday may or may not happen on Nov. 7.

Make yourselves comfortable.

I actually haven't even read the article ("Kokomo kid's the go-to guy for political junkies") which is likely directing you here, so could one of you kindly send it along? It's not online...

Mike Sodrel and Baron Hill both appeared today (in separate interviews) on WTHR's Insiders segment:

Video (Sodrel) - WMV | Video (Hill) - WMV | Video (Pundits) - WMV

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/22/2006 10:03:00 AM

They say that the "incumbent has the record and experience needed to serve second term as Marion County prosecutor."

Democratic challenger Melina Kennedy, a former deputy mayor, is a sharp, thoughtful first-time candidate who has gained confidence as she's grown more comfortable with campaigning. Kennedy has pushed incumbent Carl Brizzi with her ideas and with critiques of his performance. Voters should be appreciative of that effort because it underscores what elections are designed to do -- give the public solid choices and push incumbents to address weaknesses.

Brizzi, however, remains the better choice to lead the Prosecutor's Office for the next four years.

The Republican incumbent has built a strong record in his first term, helping drive creation of the Criminal Justice Planning Council, working across party lines to confront issues such as jail overcrowding, and adapting methods to tackle emerging threats such as gang violence and methamphetamine use.

Kennedy has sharply criticized the incumbent's record, but an Indianapolis Star analysis of cases during Brizzi's first term found that his felony conviction rate matches the national average, as determined by a U.S. Department of Justice study.
...
Brizzi does need to address a couple of weaknesses in a second term. It may be impossible to separate entirely politics from the prosecutor's office, but Brizzi at times seems too eager to score political points against his adversaries.

He also is too quick to thrust himself into the center of media attention. He recently, for example, showed up, reporters in tow, to deliver a search warrant to the Marion County Coroner's Office. He also decided this year to prosecute his first death penalty case, the high-profile Hamilton Street murders.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/22/2006 09:20:00 AM

Tully laments negative mail:

Oh my. What a choice.

If you vote for Democratic state Rep. David Orentlicher on Nov. 7, your kids will be murdered. And if you vote for Republican challenger Kathryn Densborn, that'll be the end of days for your poor parents, or your loving spouse.
Choices. Choices.

This is like picking between Charles Manson and the Boston Strangler.

Or so it would seem after reading the blather landing in District 86 mailboxes these days. The negative mailers coming out of the Democratic and Republican political parties are so ridiculously negative that they would seem funny -- if not for the corpses and crying children in the photos, that is.
I'm not exaggerating.

This Halloween season, there's no reason to rent a horror flick. If you're in the mood for some death and gore, just browse through the latest campaign mail in District 86.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-House at 10/22/2006 09:11:00 AM

Chocola and Donnelly again faced off in a debate last night:

The two did spar on Medicare Part D, with Chocola praising the legislation as lowering prescription drug costs for millions of senior citizens, and Donnelly highlighting the coverage gap, or "doughnut hole" that he said could have been addressed by including a price negotiation plan.

They also offered differing assessments of Iraq, with Chocola emphasizing the political progress made since the U.S. invasion, and Donnelly highlighting ongoing violence and security issues.

Although both candidates professed their moderation and avoided major policy differences, each questioned his opponent's ability to deliver, implying that the opponent was too connected to other groups.

Donnelly contended that Chocola was too close to the Bush administration and a compliant, Republican-controlled Congress.

"We need a tough congressman who will ask tough questions so we can get a resolution in Iraq," he said during his closing statement. "So ask yourself, are you better off now than you were two years ago?"

But Chocola countered by questioning the kind of change Donnelly said he'd bring, saying that Donnelly would vote to make Pelosi speaker of the U.S. House, thereby supporting her "left-leaning agenda."

"It's more important what you do than what you say," Chocola said during his closing statement.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/22/2006 09:09:00 AM

Story:

What is happening here in the Crossroads of America?

Just standard election year politics, say Republicans, in a state with a history of close races and of electing some Democrats (two of its nine members of Congress are Democrats, as is one senator). It is more than that, say Democrats, portraying Indianans as unusually disaffected and predicting that their party will make significant gains.

Ed Feigenbaum, editor of The Indiana Legislative Insight, a nonpartisan newsletter, said the situation reflected the nation's souring mood.

"People are unhappy everywhere," Mr. Feigenbaum said. "And incumbents suffer when they think the country is heading in the wrong direction."

It is not that candidates in the three competitive districts differ substantially on issues that matter most to voters. But their styles are different, as is the political company they keep, as each often reminds voters.

Republicans warn that Democratic victories will mean liberal leadership in Congress, while Democrats say their opponents support failed policies. The overwhelmingly negative advertisements on both sides have focused on personalities, moral values, party allegiances and help for veterans.

Voters seem focused on larger matters. From the hills of New Albany near the Kentucky border to the gray streets of Mishawaka near the Michigan border, scores of voters in the three districts said in interviews that they were uneasy about Iraq, illegal immigration, the economy and the cost of health care.

Some said they feared that gasoline prices would rise again, while others complained about lobbyists. None cited the resignation of Representative Mark Foley over his e-mail exchanges with Congressional pages, though many Republicans were concerned that unhappiness about moral lapses in Washington might depress turnout among Christian conservatives.

Some spoke about local issues, but national matters, especially Iraq, prevailed.

"Iraq is seen as a failed Republican policy that isn't working and costing money," said Brian Vargus, a professor of political science at Indiana University in Indianapolis.

"That really resonates with Hoosiers," Mr. Vargus said. "They are very patriotic, feel that the American military is very efficient so someone is doing something wrong."

A challenge from the right could syphen off disaffected Republicans:

While Savage is correct that Libertarians have run for the 9th District seat many times in the past, most agree that Schansberg is a different kind of threat.
A party source gives Schansberg his due.

"I think he's going to show better," said Al Cox, the Libertarian who ran for the 9th District seat in the 2002 and 2004 elections. Cox took 1.3 percent of the vote in 2002 and 1.5 percent of the vote in 2004.

Cox said Schansberg is far more visible than he ever was.
"I was relatively unknown," he said.

While Cox did get a chance to debate with the major party candidates both years, the only advertising he had were two billboards. Both were in somewhat rural areas along Interstate 65.

Schansberg has spent thousands on both newspaper and radio advertisements. According to recent Federal Elections Commission data, he still has close to $9,000 left to spend with only a few weeks to go before the election.

And he has something Cox never had -- a campaign staff.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/21/2006 08:39:00 AM

Brizzi continues to far outraise Kennedy, according to recent finance reports. He has $600,000 CoH; Kennedy has about $204,000. The Republican incumbent's raised $2.4 million this cycle, compared to Kennedy's $1.1 million.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/21/2006 08:34:00 AM

Or perhaps as close to it as they'll ever come.

The Republicans reported raising $1.9 million this year, with $2.6 million total this election cycle. They had spent $2.1 million this year and had $502,000 in cash on hand.

The Democrats reported raising $1.1 million this year, with $1.7 million total this election cycle. They had spent $1.4 million this year and had $307,500 cash on hand.
...
House Minority Leader B. Patrick Bauer, D-South Bend, has so far outraised House Speaker Brian C. Bosma, R-Indianapolis. Bauer had raised $546,912 this election cycle, spending $69,862. He had cash on hand of $474,485.

Bosma had raised $436,343 this election cycle, spent only $16,315 and had cash on hand of $420,028.

Both legislative leaders generally use their campaign funds to support other candidates in their caucus.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-House at 10/21/2006 08:31:00 AM

It's gone from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored."

CQPolitics.com also is making the ratings change in part because of Hayhurst's recent robust fundraising -- which contrasts with Souder's longstanding distaste for raising campaign cash.
...
On Wednesday, a luncheon forum at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., featured top officials of the parties' national House campaign organizations: New York Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds, who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, and Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, a proxy for Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel of Illinois. And Indiana’s 3rd was mentioned in a question about the growing number of competitive districts that Republicans are defending.

Reynolds praised Souder's ability at grass-roots campaigning, describing him as an "exceptionally strong 'retail' candidate." But he did not contend that Indiana's 3rd would be an easy win. "Indiana has been a challenge for the Republicans," Reynolds said. "I think Mark Souder is doing very well. ... He's working hard, as is Chris Chocola and Mike Sodrel. We've never said they would be easy races."

- This crazy model defies every poll ever taken in the Eighth. Rriighhtt...

- This article about a shady attack ad in the Eighth seems long over due---I posted a news clip (WATCH) on this very story last week...

What is known about Americans for Honesty on Issues is that its executive officer, Sue Walden, is a Houston-based Republican lobbyist, political consultant and fundraiser who has worked with a variety of Texas political figures and once lobbied for Enron Corp.

Texas media accounts have linked Walden to President Bush, former Rep. Tom DeLay and Enron founder Kenneth Lay.

Americans for Honesty on Issues is financing television ad campaigns against several Democratic House candidates nationwide, reportedly at a combined cost of more than $1 million.

Ellsworth's spokesman, Matt Weisman, said the group's anti-Ellsworth ad is "the last, desperate attempt by associates of Tom DeLay and Ken Lay to prevent voters in southwest Indiana from changing the way Washington works."

- Ellsworth wanted Hostettler to forfeit his guaranteed lowest unit charge for violating FCC rules... I actually wondered about this very scenario last month, when Rick Santorum's campaign was also in danger of not receiving the lowest unit charge for its ads because he similarly failed to put his "I approve this message" disclaimer at the END of the ad, an FCC rule for the last sixty days of the campaign.

Carl Brizzi is pulling away from Melina Kennedy, according to a new WTHR/Selzer & Co. poll of 600 LVs. Brizzi is leading Kennedy 51-35%, with a MoE of +/- 5%.

Interstingly, the poll also shows 7th CD challenger Eric Dickerson neck-and-neck with Julia Carson, 45-42%. Obvious bad news for Kennedy: 7% of Carson's supporters are falling off. But if the Carson team legitimately believes the race is competitive, the data might help gin up a famous GOTV machine that could recoup that 7% for the down-ballot Democrat... But is anyone really surprised by the numbers? Kennedy's television presence has been miserable, and the ads have been an insult to the donors that have shelled out millions expecting that Kennedy, as a talented Deputy Mayor, could capitalize on rising crime, a heavily Democratic environment, and a trending-Democratic county. Thus far, even with so many strategic and structural advantages, she's failed. This poll data should only further discourage Kennedy's fundraising base, and worsen the already-growing disparity in television points...

Meanwhile, Tully used the data to justify another column adoring Eric Dickerson.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/20/2006 09:40:00 AM

Sorry about the lazy blogging in the last few days. It's been busy...

- Evan Bayh isn't contributing his dues to the DSCC, and Democrats are getting pissed.

- The Courier Press "fact checks" John Hostettler's ad on immigration.

- Evan Bayh is quietly wooing labor. It's still nothing compared to John Edwards, though the WaPo says Bayh's efforts "continue to impress."

- Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Green is running an ad featuring the Honda plant Indiana snagged, beating out other states in the region, including Wisconsin. Previously, another Republican challenger (Dick DeVos in Michigan) used the same plant to critique the economic development record of a sitting Democratic governor. Watch Green's ad.

- MoveOn is coming to the aid of Baron Hill, spending just over $10,000 dollars for voter file upgrades and targetting data.

- The DCCC is spending $15,830 in IN-02 for direct mail.

- Does this expenditure say anything about a dispirited GOP base? The NRCC is hiring phone bankers to oppose Baron Hill. $36,964 worth of phone banks.

- 10/18: The NRCC paid $8,460 to Anthem Media for ad production opposing Baron Hill and $5,778 to Arena Communications for direct mail opposing Hill as well.

- 10/17: The DCCC bought $336,835 worth of media time to oppose Mike Sodrel. $6,733 for mail opposing Sodrel, $6,733 for mail supporting Hill. $171,449 for a media buy opposing Hostettler. $114,021 for air time opposing Chris Chocola. $13,925 to produce more ads attacking John Hostettler.

Chris Chocola dramatically charges in a new ad today that Joe Donnelly takes campaign cash from lobbyists. So who does Chris Chocola take money from?

How about a man who, "according to recently filed court documents, [is] a porn-loving, adulterous, abusive drunk who likes to advertise on Craig's List for three-ways and anal sex and takes naked pictures of himself standing at attention."

According to RADAR, Craig T. Schelske, the "husband and former manager to Nashville singer and Dancing With the Stars contestant Sara Evans" is "also a failed Republican congressional candidate, the executive director of American Destiny, which seeks to teach children about 'the role of God and Christianity in America's story,' and chairman of CRAIGPAC, a vanity political action committee that gives to Republican candidates." Evans's divorce complaint is here.

Besides Chocola, Schelske has also given to Brian Bilbray, Duke Cunningham, George Allen, Michele Bachmann, and Rep. Thelma Drake.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/18/2006 04:21:00 PM

The NRCC made over seventy payments yesterday in key races across the country, but the Bloody Eighth was notably left off of the list. The Donnelly campaign believes that the NRCC pulled out of the Second last week, and this latest poll may indicate that the NRCC is contemplating just that.

- $9,555 to poll the Second for Chocola. The pollster is Public Opinion Strategies.
- Three payments of $7,980 to Anthem Media for ad production opposing Baron Hill.

The DCCC paid Murphy Putnam Shorr & Partners $8,731 for ad production opposing Chocola, and $10,745 to GMMB to oppose Mike Sodrel...

The National Right to Life PAC is running radio ads in support of John Hostettler, totaling $7,770. They also paid EU Services $2,695 for printing
supporting the Congressman, and $449 for postage.

The tables at right have been updated.

The Howey Political Report:

Informed and reliable 8th CD Republican sources are telling HPR that U.S. Rep. John Hostettler has essentially given up on his re-election bid. The sources say that Hostettler has informed key Republican allies in Vanderburgh County that he is suspending most of his campaign activities. The sources tell HPR that he came to this conclusion in the last couple weeks. However, he has not been keeping a heavy campaign schedule for much of the fall campaign season. He did not campaign over the tradtional political rollout Labor Day weekend. When the PBS Lehrer Newshour sought out his campaign schedule prior to a mid-September weekend, they were told that Hostettler had no events planned. The sources tell HPR that Hostettler's realization of his bleak re-election prospects prompted him to put more energy into his subcommittee hearings on immigration.

Hostettler was also the only Republican Congressional delegation Member to bypass the Indiana GOP's ROMP event at the Columbia Club on Saturday, Oct. 7. The National Republican Campaign Committee has suspended its activites in the 8th CD, after a number of polls showed Democratic Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth with a growing lead.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/16/2006 06:06:00 PM

- A sampling of some of the mail that's being sent in the Ninth:

"Baron Hill will turn our values upside down," screams one piece mailed by the Indiana Republican State Committee and featuring an upside-down and bloated-looking photo of the Democrat.
...
"Mike Sodrel. He's in the pocket of the Big Boys," states a piece mailed by Hill's campaign.
...
"Millionaire Mike Sodrel's shameful votes against troops and veterans are a disgrace," the ad reads. "Our troops and veterans deserve to be treated with honor."
...
One refers to the Democrat as Baron "Capitol" Hill and accuses him of being "Washington's poster boy."

- Mike Sodrel is one of the 50 richest members of Congress, with assets of $6.6 million dollars.

- He also won the endorsement of the Indianapolis Star today:

Sodrel has a good understanding of issues facing the district and nation and offers thoughtful approaches on everything from fighting terrorism to controlling illegal immigration.

Sodrel, a member of the House transportation committee, points to a higher proportion of federal transportation dollars returning to Indiana as a major success during his first term.
...
Sodrel, after only two years in office, has shown solid growth in the position. He's earned a second term.

- Sylvia Smith says Republicans might well win all three CDs in Indiana, and "gazillionaire" Sodrel might spend down some of his fortune to do it.

- The DCCC is up with a new ad in the Indianapolis media market (and presumably Louisville, though I haven't confirmed) claiming Sodrel is making the "Washington mess" worse.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/15/2006 09:27:00 AM

- The Indianapolis Star ran two concurrent profiles of the two candidates for Marion County Prosecutor... Links: Kennedy Profile | Brizzi Profile | Interviews with Editorial Board | Peterson's Endorsements | PDF of Front Page

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/15/2006 08:48:00 AM

This Courier Press story puts Andrea Ellsworth's speeding ticket in a whole new light...Not only did the Republican prosecutor allow others in the program who exceeded the speed of Ellsworth, but he cited an unwritten and suddenly changed policy to justify forbidding Ellsworth's daughter from the deferment program. Armed with no fewer than five tickets others had received, who were admitted into the program, Ellsworth was right to call and ask questions not for special treatment, but because of just the opposite: derisive treatment that his family was receiving...More reason to think this is political: it happened a year and half ago. Why's this slimy Republican prosecutor going to the press now?

- Did Hostettler vote to raise his own pay? It's confusing as hell for editorial writers, according to the Courier Press.

- "If the election were held today, Hostettler would lose," according to another questionable poll from the Courier Press, which is projecting a 55-32% Ellsworth lead. It says Ellsworth's base is more motivated by national concerns than is Hostettler's.

- The Indianapolis Star was positively glowing about Brad Ellsworth in their endorsement of him today: "Ellsworth astutely presents himself as an alternative to the incivility and partisanship that have afflicted Congress and colored some of Hostettler's rhetoric. Ellsworth would be more likely to embrace the compromise efforts on immigration that Hostettler rigidly opposes. And he vows to bring to Washington the budgetary discipline he has had to observe in local public office. He deserves the opportunity."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/15/2006 08:38:00 AM

Perhaps this came from Hostettler's entire binder full of opposition research on Ellsworth's daughter:

Weeks before an election that could help change control of Congress, Republicans in southern Indiana's 8th District accused Democrat Brad Ellsworth of using his position as a sheriff to pressure a prosecutor to drop a speeding ticket against his daughter.

Boyd Toler, the Republican prosecutor in Pike County, said Ellsworth called him after the candidate's daughter, Andrea, was stopped for speeding last year.

"He was pretty persistent. I finally told him that I treat everybody the same," Toler said Saturday. "I received the distinct impression that he was asking for it to be dismissed because of his position."

Ellsworth, the Democratic challenger to Republican incumbent John Hostettler in 8th District congressional race, is the sheriff of Vanderburgh County, about 15 miles away from Pike County.

Toler said Andrea Ellsworth was stopped on March 6, 2005 - two months before Ellsworth declared his candidacy - for driving 83 mph in a 55 mph zone. Toler said the speed exceeded the 79 mph to qualify for a deferment program.

Ellsworth denied asking to have the ticket dropped and said he only asked if his daughter qualified for the program, which is an option open to most ticketed motorists in Indiana to help them protect their driving records.

Ellsworth also objected to Republicans raising the accusation with less than a month remaining before the Nov. 7 election.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/14/2006 05:32:00 PM

The FEC report was filed yesterday.

Sodrel raised (net) $431,418, and spent (net, excluding refunds for contributions, which aren't included in the receipt totals) $486,720. Sodrel also has a huge pile of debt--$251,927. More than half of his receipts came from PACs ($219,048), and fewer from individuals, $212,780.

The Republican began the quarter with $1,138,747, and ended it with $1,072,320.

Finance totals at right have been updated. Hill, Ellsworth, Chocola, and Donnelly have yet to file their reports.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/14/2006 04:39:00 PM

That's on par with, but slightly below, his 2Q results. Hostettler's campaign filed the report with the FEC 10/11.

He ended the second quarter with $195,146 CoH and increased that sum to $269,704 by the end of the third. $16,950 of his fundraising totals came from PACs. His spending, up from about $30k in 2Q, amounted to $90,894. $55,356 of that went to advertising.

His current CoH bests both what he had at the end of 3Q in 2004 ($135,134) and in 2002 ($223,233). 2006 receipts ($165,452) also slightly out-performed 2004 ($164,844) and 2002 ($99,786) as well.

The financing table at right has been updated.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/14/2006 04:24:00 PM

Video - WMV

The Indiana Week in Review Panel on IN-02 and Laura Bush's visit.

Video - WMV

"Sense" - Republican Ken Fries, candidate for sheriff in Allen County.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/14/2006 11:38:00 AM

The lowest of the big three was the Ninth, at #14, down one spot from the last round:

Nowhere is the fight over the Foley imbroglio nastier than in this southern Indiana seat. Former Rep. Baron Hill began the tussle with an ad pointing out that Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) had accepted thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from House leaders including Speaker Dennis Hastert (Ill.) Sodrel hit back with an ad in which the incumbent says: "Baron Hill's attack ads blaming me for the Mark Foley mess are the biggest lie yet." Hill is hoping that by raising questions about Sodrel's (and Republicans') ethics he can discredit them as a messenger on values issues, which are all-important in this district.

Is the Ninth replacing IN-02 as the lowest Indiana priority for Democrats? When pollster Stan Greenberg (who polled IN-02 for the DCCC last week, showing a 16-point Donnelly edge) teamed up with James Carville to take the collective pulse of 49-GOP held contested CDs, IN-09 was stuck in tier two.

Perhaps the analysis of IN-02 is prescient, but isn't the conventional wisdom to veer away from negative campaigning when you're cruising towards reelection?

Rep. Chris Chocola (R) sowed the seeds of his likely defeat in November almost two years ago. Democrat Joe Donnelly was running an underfunded effort against the incumbent, but rather than run a series of negative ads designed to destroy Donnelly, Chocola largely ignored him. The result? Donnelly built up his name identification and favorable ratings -- positioning him perfectly to beat Chocola this time in a vastly different political environment. A new Democrat-sponsored poll showed Donnelly ahead 52 percent to 36 percent. Chocola's own poll had him down 45 percent to 44 percent. Either way, it doesn't look good for the incumbent.

Hostettler's campaign is all but over:

Rep. John Hostettler's campaign isn't showing any signs of life. Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) continues to hold a double-digit lead, and the question now seems to be when the National Republican Congressional Committee will decide to pull out.

The DCCC is ramping up their direct mail in Indiana, spending nearly $40,000 on it Friday alone.

- $6,733 to the Baughman Company, in support of Baron Hill.
- $6,733 to the Baughman Company, in opposition to Mike Sodrel.
- $9,450 to the Strategy Group for negative mail against Hostettler.
- $15,190 to the Mack Crounse Group for negative mail opposing Chris Chocola.

The NRCC paid $5,778 to Arena Communications for negative mail against Baron Hill and spent $399,164 for a negative media buy opposing him as well.

Mike Sodrel is pushing abortion:

Republican Incumbent Mike Sodrel held two press conferences Friday -- one in Jeffersonville, one in Jasper -- touting the endorsement he picked up from Right to Life PAC.

Sodrel said the endorsement was significant to him because he considers preventing abortions a top priority.

"It is our duty as a government and as a society to protect the lives of those who are the most vulnerable among us," Sodrel said.

Meanwhile, Democratic Party challenger Baron Hill went to Jasper earlier this week with former Indiana Congressman Tim Roemer to hold a town hall meeting to discuss the 95-10 Initiative.

The 95-10 proposal seeks to reduce the number of abortions by 95 percent in the next 10 years.

"I am against abortions," Hill said. He has said in the past that it should be safe and legal but rare.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/14/2006 10:16:00 AM

The mistake apparently only happened once:

The ad, sponsored by a group called Americans for Honesty on Issues, concerned Democratic congressional challenger Joe Donnelly's position on taxes and was denounced as "untrue and misleading" by Donnelly spokeswoman Katie Nee.

The ad was dropped earlier in the week by WSBT-TV, according to station general manager John Mann, who said the claims made in its audio portion were not supported by cited sources.

The odd twist came when The Tribune, while preparing a story, asked Brooks Kochvar, a spokesman for U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola, R-2nd, to comment on the decision to pull the ad.

Kochvar's response was to say that he had just seen the commercial on WSBT-TV, and that it was running on other local stations as well.

When told of the situation, Mann launched an investigation of his own. He initially concluded that the ad had continued to run because of an internal processing involving recently installed software.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/14/2006 10:09:00 AM

Now a Democratic group, which has been making calls against Mike Sodrel, has filed suit against the state of Indiana. A previous suit, filed by the Economic Freedom Fund, which made calls attacking Baron Hill, is still pending.

A Washington-based organization is asking a federal court to block enforcement of an Indiana law that bans automated prerecorded phone calls.

American Family Voices on Friday filed a complaint in U.S. District Court in Indianapolis, arguing the ban violates the federal Constitution and interstate commerce laws and should not apply to calls made for political purposes.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/14/2006 10:04:00 AM

The Washington Post put the Vanderburgh County Sheriff on the front page (PDF of WaPo) today, exhibit A in a whole field of Democratic candidates with a "high hotness quotient."

Attractive politicians have an edge over not-so-attractive ones. The phenomenon is resonating especially this year. By a combination of luck and design, Democrats seem to be fielding an uncommonly high number of uncommonly good-looking candidates.

The beauty gap between the parties, some on Capitol Hill muse, could even be a factor in who controls Congress after Election Day.

Democratic operatives do not publicly say that they went out of their way this year to recruit candidates with a high hotness quotient. Privately, however, they acknowledge that, as they focused on finding the most dynamic politicians to challenge vulnerable Republicans, it did not escape their notice that some of the most attractive prospects were indeed often quite attractive.

There is a certain logic to the trend. Back in 1994, when Republicans seized power in Congress from Democrats, the GOP had a number of fresh-faced challengers who knocked off incumbents who had grown worse for wear after years of committee hearings and fundraising receptions.

This year, it is the Democrats who have several ripe opportunities to unseat Republicans, some of whom have grown gray and portly during their years in power.

...

The list is decidedly unscientific, but it includes several whose names come up often on Capitol Hill for reasons other than their policy platforms. Among those on it, in addition to Arcuri, are Brad Ellsworth, a swaggering Indiana sheriff.

...

The crop of eye-pleasing pols has party operatives calculating the politics of beauty. "There's a fine line, and you can't cross it," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Voters don't like men who look like pretty boys or women who resemble bimbos. "If you're too good-looking, people won't take you seriously," Emanuel said.

Carl Forti, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, agreed that attractive candidates often have an early advantage. But he said voters' decisions in the polling booth are rarely skin-deep, especially in a closely contested race.

"When each side is spending four or five million, people know the records, and it doesn't have the same impact," he said. He noted that Shuler's popularity has declined in recent weeks following reports that his real estate firm was late in paying taxes. "That's gone back to being a close race."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/14/2006 09:43:00 AM

Unfortunately, I don't have the time at the moment to make ad profiles for all of these videos, but I posted three in the flash player. Also, here's a DCCC mailer that's attacking John Hostettler.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/13/2006 06:03:00 AM

The Indianapolis Star is billing the newest Majority Watch poll as a GOP gain:

An automated telephone survey this month of 989 voters in Indiana's 2nd District found Chocola with 46 percent support compared with 50 percent for Democrat challenger Joe Donnelly. A similar survey conducted a month early showed 40 percent for Chocola and 52 percent for Donnelly.

"He has made tremendous progress," said Thom Riehle, partner in RT Strategies Inc., one of the two research groups running the project.

Riehle said Chocola's improvement was strong enough that Majority Watch may decide to see if there's been similar movement in southern Indiana.

Their early September poll in southwestern Indiana found 45 percent support for Rep. John Hostettler, R-Wadesville, compared with 51 percent of respondents who planned to vote for Democratic challenger Brad Ellsworth.

In southeastern Indiana, Rep. Mike Sodrel had 42 percent support compared with Democratic challenger Baron Hill's 53 percent.

"This is the first we've seen a strong recovery by any of these guys," Riehle said of Chocola's improvement this month.

But even though Chocola's numbers are moving in the right direction, Riehle said getting back to the lead is "certainly a tough row to hoe" as "there's not much time left."

I'm not sure just how to read these numbers yet. Unfortunately, no one independent pollster has polled the district more than twice (this second round of data from Majority Watch is the only time that's been done), so it's difficult to get good relative comparisons amongst differing pollsters with differing formulas. Here's a handy chart tracking the race so far:

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/12/2006 07:50:00 PM

AP:

"It's very important Chris be re-elected," Bush said. "President Bush has an ambitious agenda for the rest of his time in Washington. ... We must have serious national conversations conducted in civility and respect, and Chris Chocola is a positive and powerful part of that dialogue."

Bush, a popular campaign-booster for Republicans across the country, began a four-state swing Wednesday with a fundraiser for six-term Ohio congressman Steve Chabot, who is in a heated re-election battle. She raised $170,000 at a luncheon for him.

She then headed to Knoxville, Tenn., to raise money for Republican Senate candidate Bob Corker. After Indiana, she was heading to Missouri for GOP candidates.

Chocola, a two-term congressman, told the 700 people who spent $100 to attend the event - $2,000 to have their photo taken with the first lady - that the race was extremely close and there's a lot at stake.

"The Democrats think the road to the majority is running right through Indiana, and I think they're right," Chocola said. "But when they get here, with your help, they'll see a big 'Do Not Enter' sign."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/12/2006 07:35:00 PM

Video - WMV

RTV6 on the "ad war" in Indiana's Ninth. No ads you haven't seen before (on IOM, anyway), but the clip includes interviews with both Hill and Sodrel.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/12/2006 06:54:00 PM

Indiana's Second is tightening, according to numbers released today by Majority Watch, a polling project of RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics.

Republican Chris Chocola has managed to whip up his base to parity with Donnelly's "strong" hierarchical numbers, upping it by ten whole points since the last Majority Watch poll in September, while marginalizing his "weak" voters by four points. In contrast, Donnelly's "weak" numbers increased by two points, and his "strong" numbers dropped by four. The Democrat's Voter Motivation Index rating remained the same, and Chris Chocola increased his base's rating by eight-tenths of a point.

It's clear the race will be decided outside of St. Joseph County, where the contest is dead even, 48-48%. The Granger Democrat is decisively leading by ten points in St. Joseph County, his geographic base.

66% of Chocola's weak base is made up of men; in September, men only accounted for 44% of the Republican's leaners. Women now make up the bulk of undecided voters; previously at 49% of all undecideds, women now make up 66% of those voters. Women continue to break for Donnelly in sum, 52-43%, though down from 55-38% in September. Men have upped their support for Chocola, at 43-49% in September, now at 49-47%.

Crosstabs: September | October

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/12/2006 03:54:00 PM

Joe Donnelly is up by four points, 50-46%, in the second round of Constituent Dynamics/RT Strategies Majority Watch polling... Results from IN-08 & IN-09 are fourthcoming, but not available yet. Further analysis coming soon.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/12/2006 03:05:00 PM

The IndyStar says the issue "dominated" the debate (video):

The hourlong debate was the second of four scheduled in a prosecutor's race that has drawn more interest than usual with the absence of other tight local races. Nearly $3 million has been poured into the race, enabling both campaigns to blanket the airwaves with TV ads. It has become the most expensive prosecutor's race on record.

Audience members wrote questions on cards in advance about topics including the death penalty, illegal immigrants who commit crimes and the office's role in prosecuting misdeeds in state government.

One question alluded to charges filed Wednesday against Indiana Pacers player Stephen Jackson. Both candidates said public figures should receive the same treatment as everyone else.

Both also pledged to serve a full four-year term.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/12/2006 02:57:00 PM

Video - WMV

Clips from WTHR's coverage of the second MCP debate.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/12/2006 02:55:00 PM

The ad is now off air:

"We used some of that money to up our buy elsewhere," Buck said, adding that the group felt that, strategically, the money could be better used in other areas of the country.

With Chocola reportedly behind in some district polls, the comment seemed to imply that the group saw no point in further attacking the incumbent Republican, although Buck declined to comment on that aspect.
...
Jaquint, who confirmed that Majority Action wanted to drop the ad on its own, said the ad buy was only for a few thousand dollars. "It wasn't that much money," he said.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/12/2006 06:05:00 AM

The ad buys, as well as direct mail, encompassed all of the big three:

- $180,418 to Great American Media for a media buy in support of Baron Hill.
- $180,418 to Great American Media for a media buy in opposition to Mike Sodrel.
- $13,465 to The Baughman Company for mail opposing Mike Sodrel.
- $4,725 to The Strategy Group for mail supporting Brad Ellsworth.
- $4,725 to The Strategy Group for mail opposing John Hostettler.
- $160,398 to Great American Media for an ad buy opposing John Hostettler.
- $3,150 to AKP Message & Media for ad production opposing Hostettler.
- $7,595 to Mack Crounse Group, LLC for mail opposing Chris Chocola.
- $7,595 to Mack Crounse Group, LLC for mail supporting Joe Donnelly.
- $113,986 to Great American Media for an ad buy opposing Chris Chocola.

The NRCC spent on the behalf of embattled Hoosier Republicans in every one of the big three today:

- $8,235 to the Tarrance Group to commission a poll for Mike Sodrel
- $8,973 to Stevens, Reed, Curcio, & Potholm for issue ad production opposing Brad Ellsworth
- $7,480 to Marsh Copsey & Associates for issue ad production opposing Joe Donnelly
- $5,778 to Arena Communications for direct mail opposing Baron Hill
- $1,920 to Anthem Media Inc. for ad production opposing Baron Hill

The NRCC's first expenditure in the 3rd, on a poll which I reported first last night, has now drawn the ire of Maureen Groppe:

The National Republican Congressional Committee spent $8,235 on a survey on behalf of U.S. Rep. Mark Souder, according to disclosure reports.

NRCC spokesman Ed Patru, however, said the polling doesn't indicate signs of GOP trouble in northeastern Indiana.

"It's not at all unusual for party committees to check up on a race to see what's going on," he said.

Although the national Democratic Party hasn't yet put Souder on its target list, a spokeswoman for the campaign arm of House Democrats said Republicans should be worried.

"The current environment is certainly detrimental to Republicans," said Adrienne Elrod, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "Americans everywhere want a new direction and this is certainly a district that is reflective of that.

Matt Tully trashes Melina Kennedy's "amnesty" plan:

In a race where both candidates are obsessed with being seen as "tough," Brizzi couldn't have asked for more.

"These are not the types of criminals we need to give second and third chances to," he said with typical showmanship. "What we want to do is make Indianapolis as inhospitable as possible for these guys."

The problem for Kennedy is Brizzi has effectively bashed her lack of prosecutorial experience for weeks. Her proposing "a get-out-of-jail-free card," as Brizzi called it, gave him another chance to point to that issue.

"Only someone who has never prosecuted a gang member would propose something like this," he said.

In a race this big, each candidate will have bad days. Brizzi's had a few. Monday was Kennedy's turn.

Her response was weak. She defended her gang proposal but tried to downplay it by insisting it was only a "concept." She said the "concept" was aimed at "taking down the whole gang infrastructure by trying to peel away the young wannabes" and getting them to "testify against the gang leaders."

She wouldn't say what level of crimes would be forgiven but pointed to offenses such as carrying a handgun illegally.

Reality check. How many gang "wannabes" will take the stand and testify against gang leaders in exchange for dropping a minor charge?

Even using the word "amnesty" seems to me foolish, considering the millions that Republicans are spending attacking Democrats on immigration. Carl Brizzi ably seized on the issue today, generating some press and sending out this e-mail:

Having gang members write on the blackboard "I will not be a gang member" is not an effective way to deal with our city's growing gang problem. We need real leadership that won't hand out free passes to gun-toting gang members. Carl Brizzi was the Chief of Gang Prosecution under Scott Newman and last year helped pass a new law that doubles the jail time for gang members convicted of certain crimes.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/11/2006 03:32:00 PM

AFSCME is finally paying to air ads that they had the Campaign Group produce last month (at a cost of $5,000)...They're spending $141,765 on the media buy, which targets John Hostettler.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/11/2006 03:12:00 PM

The South Bend Tribune reports on two partisan polls released today (I've posted the results at right in the poll section):

The poll, taken Oct. 4 and 5 by the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research company of Hartford, Conn., showed Donnelly with a 52 percent lead to Chocola's 36 percent, with a plus-or-minus 4.6 percent margin for error and a sampling of 400 likely voters.

Burton said the poll showed Chocola with a 36 percent positive and 61 percent negative job approval rating.

Chocola spokesman Brooks Kochvar said an Oct. 9 poll taken by Mercury Public Affairs, a New York City company, showed a much different result.

That poll showed the race in a virtual dead heat, with Donnelly ahead of Chocola by a 44.7 to 44 percent margin, with 11.3 percent undecided.

According to Kochvar, Mercury surveyed 300 likely voters and the poll had a plus-or-minus 5.65 percent margin for error.

"We take polls to understand reality, not to make us feel good," Kochvar said. "Clearly their poll makes them feel good, but it has no basis in reality."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/11/2006 03:06:00 PM

The interest group ads will drop soon:

One Democratic 527 group, Majority Action, announced this week that it would run advertisements in four Congressional districts criticizing incumbent Republican House members for voting against federal financing for stem cell research.

The advertisements will focus on Representatives Chris Chocola of Indiana, Thelma Drake of Virginia, Don Sherwood of Pennsylvania and James T. Walsh of New York.

Total spending on the 60-second advertisements will be about $500,000, said Bill Buck, spokesman for Majority Action. The group’s founders include Joe Andrew and Don Fowler, former chairmen of the Democratic National Committee.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/11/2006 06:15:00 AM

Despite indications that the GOP might pull out of the Eighth, the NRCC dropped $149,791 on a media buy (to Strategic Media Services) today opposing Brad Ellsworth.

Also: interestingly, the NRCC is now polling Indiana's third CD, paying $8,235 to the Tarrance Group.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/10/2006 08:09:00 PM

Video - WMV

Dick Lugar visited Indianapolis today to speak at the Howey Political Report Forum, an extraordinary event that brought together the Senator, Rep. Mike Pence, and 9/11 Commissioner Timothy Roemer. WTHR filed this report.

Ellsworth won the endorsement of the FOP:

On Monday at local FOP headquarters, Indiana State Lodge FOP Chairman David Cook said his 14,000-member organization is proud to support Ellsworth's campaign.

"Seldom do we find a candidate of Brad's caliber, his integrity and leadership to hold the 8th District for Congress," Cook said.

Ellsworth said Congress "needs to listen to local law enforcement."

"When the federal government does come in to help, we need to listen to these people - the people on the ground, the people in our local jurisdictions that know their residents and know what they need to do their jobs," he said.

"... These are experts. They know what they need, and we in the federal government need to listen to them. It's not always being done right now."

Are Republicans giving up on John Hostettler? Shella says:

The word from state Republican Headquarters is that Congressman John Hostettler has "taken control of his own message." If that's not code for "he's on his own," it is, at the very least, an indication that some of the state and national resources that the GOP earmarked for the Hostettler race are being redirected to one or both of the other targeted congressional races in Indiana.

The political editor for Human Events, a far right conservative weekly, says John Hostettler is the fourth most endangered Republican in the nation---be it in the Senate or the House. He's only beaten out by Conrad Burns, Jack Abramoff's favorite Senator, Don Sherwood, who had an extramartial affair (see this damning ad, which the WaPo says might be the best ad of 2006), and Rick Santorum, who's been down double digits in the polls for months against Bob Casey.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/10/2006 06:26:00 PM

The Courier-Journal:

In the 30-second spot that began airing Friday on Louisville television stations, Hill says incumbent U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel, R-9th, has refused to return $77,000 in contributions received from House leaders who "knew about but did nothing to stop" a former Congressman accused of sending sexually inappropriate Internet messages to underage pages.

The ad also enumerates contributions from two other former Congressmen swept up in scandals.

Sodrel's campaign manager, Cam Savage, called it "the nastiest ad I've ever seen." He said Sodrel wants to wait for the results of an investigation into who knew what about the Foley situation before making any decisions about campaign contributions.

"Trying to link Mike to this is disingenuous. It's ludicrous," Savage said. "It shows that he's very desperate."

But Melanie Morris, a spokeswoman for the Hill campaign, said Monday that "it's very clear House leadership" did nothing.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/09/2006 07:40:00 PM

Though Carl Brizzi has been running television ads about internet predators, Kennedy is trying to turn the tables--and is invoking Republican Congressman Mark Foley:

Kennedy, the Democratic challenger, announced a plan to combat online predators. She also said Brizzi, who is seeking reelection, could not be trusted on the issue because of a flap involving his assistant sex crimes chief in March 2005.

Brizzi fired Jay Meisenhelder after discovering a romantic e-mail he sent to a 16-year-old girl. Kennedy provided copies of that e-mail and alluded to a recent scandal in Washington, D.C., over online e-mails and conversations Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) had with 16- and 17-year-old congressional pages.

The Brizzi campaign hasn't changed their media plan for "Sting," an ad about online sexual predators (even including images of instant message exchanges), which began running on Indianapolis broadcast stations before the Foley scandal broke.

Kennedy's plan is called the Prosecutor's Regional Operation to Eliminate Child Threats —--- or "P.R.O.T.E.C.T." It includes more aggressive targeting of online sexual predators, making the office a clearinghouse for filtering software and publishing a registry of the sexual predators' online identities.

During his news conference, Brizzi, a Republican seeking reelection, repeated his criticism of an item in Kennedy's plan that would offer one-time amnesty to some young gang members. In exchange, they must turn in their guns and renounce their gang membership in writing.

"My intention is to go after the gang infrastructure by going against gang leaders," Kennedy said. She would target "wannabes" and fringe members with amnesty offers, she said.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/09/2006 07:30:00 PM

The NRCC paid today $5,972 to Arena Communications for negative direct mail opposing Baron Hill.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/09/2006 07:09:00 PM

The NRCC paid today $9,555 to Public Opinion Strategies to poll the Second.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/09/2006 07:09:00 PM

The NRCC paid today $9,555 to Public Opinion Strategies to poll the Bloody Eighth.

The DCCC paid $16,275 to AKP Message & Media to produce ads opposing John Hostettler.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/09/2006 07:07:00 PM

How did Brizzi get put in front of a flag that was strikingly similar to his logo, and Kennedy got to stand in front of a giant WISH logo the entire time? ... Just wondering. IndyStar:

Carl Brizzi, the Republican incumbent, painted Melina Kennedy, his Democratic challenger, as a candidate lacking adequate prosecutorial or courtroom experience for the job.

Brizzi, Kennedy said, has overseen lower conviction rates in several areas, including domestic violence. She is ready to fill a leadership vacuum, she said.

In just over four weeks, voters will decide between the two in the area's highest-profile race. Sunday night's 30-minute debate on WISH (Channel 8) was the first of four scheduled.

On the experience question, Kennedy cited her background in civil litigation, as a clerk for the Indiana Supreme Court and as deputy mayor. But Brizzi said she would create an experience void at the top of the prosecutor's office.

"Every day, young prosecutors in my office come up to the sixth floor to ask for my advice," said Brizzi, who was a deputy prosecutor under his predecessor, Republican Scott Newman. "Being on the front lines and trying these cases makes all the difference in the world."

Kennedy cited Stephen Goldsmith, Indianapolis' former mayor. He earlier became prosecutor without having worked in the office. Leadership is more important in a large county prosecutor's office, she said.

"I agree (Brizzi has) very good experience," Kennedy said. "But I think when something's just not working, having someone coming in with a fresh perspective is the way to go."

The candidates agreed on several issues: Overcrowding in the Marion County Jail has stopped, but more efforts are needed. The death penalty should be used only for "the worst of the worst." Marijuana should stay illegal.

And the office should serve as a watchdog over state government, no matter the politics.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/09/2006 06:01:00 AM

Video - WMV

A bit from the MCP debate tonight hosted by WISH-TV. Nothing of any particular excitement, but worth a look if you didn't see it on TV.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/08/2006 06:14:00 PM

I'm trying to find a copy, but here's the script:

Fighting the ACLU's efforts to remove every trace of our religious heritage, Congressman John Hostettler's Public Expression of Religion Act passed the House of Representatives this year with bipartisan support.

In support of the Public Expression of Religion Act, American Legion National Commander Paul Morin stated: 'A special thanks goes to Rep. Hostettler for championing such needed legislation on behalf of all taxpayers in the name of religious expression.' John Hostettler: Our values. Our congressman.

I notice he stole Chris Chocola's slogan, "Our voice, our values, our Congressman." That, or Chocola stole his.

(Also: the Courier-Press does their regular "fact check.")

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/07/2006 09:52:00 AM

Video - WMV

The Indiana Week in Review panel on Mark Foley and Dennis Hastert's canceled visit to IN-09. Mike O'Connor sits in for Ann DeLaney.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/07/2006 09:40:00 AM

More coverage, this time from the Courier-Press. Again the duo pushed for implementation of the 9/11 Commission recommendations:

Standing in the airport terminal with Evansville Fire Department Lt. Larry Zuber, Bayh and Ellsworth called for improved baggage and cargo screening and a prescreening program for airline passengers, recommendations made by the 9/11 Commission.

"America doesn't expect perfection, but it does expect us to do the best job we can," Ellsworth said.

John Hostettler responded, somewhat surprisingly, by attacking the popular Hoosier Senator:

"Once again, Brad Ellsworth is campaigning with a proponent of amnesty (for illegal immigrants)," Hostettler's statement said. "Once again, Brad Ellsworth's actions speak louder than his words."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/07/2006 09:40:00 AM

The DCCC spent $4,725 for positive direct mail, and $4,725 for negative direct mail 10/5, paid to The Strategy Group.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/07/2006 09:20:00 AM

The DCCC paid GMMB 10/5 $5,213 to produce a negative ad opposing Mike Sodrel, as well as another $5,213 for production in support of Baron Hill. They paid Great American Media $52,547 for a negative media buy, and another $52,547 for a positive buy.

They paid $13,465 to The Baughman Company for negative direct mail.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/07/2006 09:17:00 AM

Yesterday, the DCCC paid Mack Crounse Group, LLC $7,595 for direct mail opposing Chris Chocola, as well as $8,710 for negative ad production to Murphy Putnam Shorr & Partners.

They paid another $7,595 to Mack Crounse Group, LLC for direct mail supporting Joe Donnelly.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/07/2006 09:15:00 AM

Video - WMV

CNN's Dana Bash on the "Foley fallout" in Indiana's Second, as well as the Ninth.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/07/2006 08:30:00 AM

I finally have a (horrible quality) video of the ad itself, here. CNN coverage:

The first campaign television ad featuring disgraced former Rep. Mark Foley, R-Florida, hit the airwaves Friday in southern Indiana, as a Democratic challenger sought to link the ongoing page scandal to the Republican congressman.
...
A Sodrel spokesman denounced the ad as being "completely untrue," and noted that the Indiana Republican has not yet decided to whether to ask television stations to refrain from airing it.

"When Mike first saw the ad, he was appalled," said Cam Savage, Sodrel's spokesman. "The idea that Baron would try to directly link him with this Foley scandal is just preposterous. We are not surprised by it, because we know how Baron is and we know how desperately he wants to be back in Congress. We see this as a new low."
...
Melanie Morris, Hill's spokeswoman, said Sodrel "should return the money from those in the House leadership who kept this under wraps.

"Basically, our point is there is a crisis in leadership and Mike Sodrel isn't doing anything about it," she said. "He is part of the problem."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/06/2006 07:27:00 PM

Video - WMV

Baron Hill is the first Congressional candidate in the country to use Mark Foley's namesake and image in a television ad. There have been some indirect references in the last week from other Congressional candidates, but this first got Hill a mention on CNN's The Situation Room this afternoon.

This clip shows the new ad, out today, in its entirety.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/06/2006 03:49:00 PM

AUDIO - Mp3

- NPR filed this report on the Ellsworth/Hostettler debate for All Things Considered, focusing on the Indiana implications of the Mark Foley scandal.

- Evan Bayh stumped for Ellsworth in Terre Haute yesterday, stressing the need to pass all of the 9/11 Commission reccomendations. "Unfortunately, these are dangerous times, and we need to do a better job protecting our country," Bayh said. More Bayh, from the Trib-Star: "Out of the 41 suggestions, there were four 'F's, nine 'D's and no 'A's. That is not good enough. We can do better than that defending America, and Brad Ellsworth will."

- The Evansville Courier-Press calls the debate a draw: "both score." They're also running an online poll, gauging if the event changed minds.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/06/2006 03:31:00 PM

The South Bend Tribune:

The Hoosier Democrat said his "Stopping Overseas Subsidies" legislation, which is aimed at controlling unfair trade practices, isn't going anywhere "under current management." He expressed hope that the Nov. 7 election will result in a change of policy.

Donnelly said he strongly supports the proposal.

Bayh, who said he's known Donnelly for 20 years, described the Granger Democrat as "a good person who will fight for the people of the district."

Donnelly said he had asked Bayh early on to campaign for him because Bayh is loved by Hoosiers and because "it's a good thing to have a friend who's also a senator."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/06/2006 02:44:00 PM

The NRCC has an ad up that replaces "Dots," and the DCCC has an ad up with this script:

When our country calls, they answer. They're Indiana's National Guard. But back at home, many Guard families struggle to make ends meet. Something Chris Chocola doesn't seem to understand. When Congress voted on a $1500 bonus to send troops serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, Chris said no. The same Chris Chocola who accepted thousands in pay raises said 'no' to helping military families.

I don't have copies of either spot yet, but I'm working on it. As always, if you have a copy, send it on over already.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/06/2006 02:06:00 PM

The NRCC today paid Arena Communications $5,972 for direct mail opposing Baron Hill.

The Howey Political Report today is forecasting a 51-49 Democratic House. The latest legislative race rankings are posted at right.

HPR's also switching all three of Indiana's competitive CDs---IN-02, IN-08, IN-09---from "Toss Up" to "Leans Dem."

The DCCC paid $15,190 on 10/3 to Mack Crounse Group, LLC for mail services. This is the first DCCC mailing in the Second.

They also paid $79,401 to Great American Media for a media buy opposing Chris Chocola.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/05/2006 02:16:00 PM

The Tribune Star says the two differed starkly on the minimum wage:

One of their most glaring contrasts came when Rump asked them if they’d favor an increase in the minimum wage from its current $5.15 per hour, where it has remained since 1997.

Hostettler stated his firm opposition, and insisted that most minimum-wage workers aren’t actually poor, but instead are made up of the young. He backed his statement by saying that economists can link such increases to inflation. Ellsworth disagreed with the assertion that such earners are mostly high-schoolers and college students, and mentioned the idea of a married couple, both earning minimum wage, living below the poverty level. "There's a lot of wasteful spending going on, and we can afford to raise the minimum wage," he said.

The AP reported mostly similiarities:

During the hour-long televised debate, Hostettler and Ellsworth agreed about goals in Iraq, reducing foreign energy dependence and the expansion of powers to help the federal government fight terrorism.

On the issue of immigration, both candidates proposed building a fence along the Mexican border to stem illegal entries, electronically monitoring such a fence and reducing the availability of jobs to illegal workers.

One of only few issues they differed on was minimum wage - Hostettler opposed a hike; Ellsworth supported it.

WTHR on Hostettler's guilty-by-association argument:

But the six term Republican warned Ellsworth's election could turn the leadership of the U.S. House over to Democrats. The 8th District is considered one of a handful of seats that could put Democrats in control.

"Now liberals from all over the country are pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into the 8th District, into Brad Ellsworth's campaign. If Mr. Ellsworth's choice for speaker of the House puts Charlie Rangle in charge of writing tax legislation he will turn the federal government into a much larger recipient of taxes from all America," said Congressman Hostettler.

The Courier-Press:

Ellsworth spoke of the need for not only a new congressman, but a new and less partisan Congress.

No other debates are scheduled, but Hostettler will appear this morning before the Morning Rotary Club of Evansville, and Ellsworth will make appearances this week with Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind.

Aides to both candidates say the pace will become furious in the weeks before Election Day, Nov. 7.

Who won? The Courier-Press has an online poll running.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/05/2006 05:54:00 AM

- Donnelly pounces on the Mark Foley scandal. The South Bend Tribune:

"There is no question Speaker Hastert should resign his speakership effective immediately," Donnelly said. "I would imagine this is an issue Chris Chocola and I can find common ground on. The question is, will Chris Chocola continue to support leaders in his party who covered up this scandal and put children at risk, or will he join with me in calling for the Speaker's resignation?"

"Mark Foley's behavior is unconscionable and tragic and Foley should face the full weight of our legal system," Chocola said in response.

"After all the facts become clear, if leadership acted inappropriately, they will lose my support and should be held accountable for their actions or inactions."

- The Herald Argus has coverage of the Chocola/Donnelly debate. Fox 28 does too.

- The Indianapolis Star breathlessly reports numbers, in a frontpage headline story no less, that I posted five days ago.

- Carl Brizzi has another "pod" video, this one encouraging people to volunteer for the campaign.

- Matt Tully justifiably wonders whether Evan Bayh could be doing more good for Democrats in Indiana than in Iowa.

- Boring candidate forum in the ninth.


IN-02 Reuters/Zogby poll: conducted 9/25-10/2 of 502 LVs; MoE +/- 4.5% Party identification: 44%D, 40%R, 16%I/O. Donnelly leads 49-39%. 12% are undecided:

General Election Matchup
All Dem GOP Ind
Donnelly 49% 86% 10% 43%
Chocola 39 2 78 43
Other/undec 12 12 12 14

Does Chocola Deserve Re-Election?
All Dem GOP Ind
Yes, re-elect 35% 5% 70% 33%
No, someone new 56 92 18 50

Fav/Unfav
Donnelly 51%/25%
Chocola 43 /47


IN-09 Reuters/Zogby poll: conducted 9/25-10/2 of 500 LVs; MoE +/- 4.5% Party identification: 47%D, 39%R, 14%I/O. Hill leads 46-38%. 16% are undecided:

General Election Matchup
All Dem GOP Ind
Hill 46% 79% 9% 41%
Sodrel 38 8 78 32
Other/undec 16 13 13 27

Does Sodrel Deserve Re-Election?
All Dem GOP Ind
Yes, re-elect 39% 13% 74% 31%
No, someone new 45 70 13 44

Fav/Unfav
Hill 52%/29%
Sodrel 46 /35


- Pollster John Zogby, on the results:

The formula for Democratic victory: in each case where Democrats lead, the candidates are winning near or above 80% of their own party vote and they are leading among independents. In other races I am following closely, there are reasons to see Democrats ahead in other Republican districts, as well. No predictions yet because there are still many undecided voters, but Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief that the election was not held the past few days. These polls were taken during what Queen Elizabeth would describe as 'weekendus horribilis' for the Republicans. However, the polling was conducted from last Thursday through Monday night of this week. We closely examined the figures for Thursday and Friday (i.e. before the Mark Foley scandal really hit) and Saturday through Monday and the results indicated no change in voter sentiment: aggregated, Democrats led 44% to 40% the first two nights and 44% to 40% the last three.

It may just be that the scandal has not played out fully and it could very well be that a scandal of such magnitude could hurt both parties. At the same time,, two caveats are in order - we did not poll Democratic districts and I am doing some districts for private clients and there are more Republican vulnerabilities.

So, Republicans find themselves in a bad news/good news situation. The bad news is they are in grave danger of losing their majority in the House. The good news is that there are still nearly five weeks before Election Day in which to do damage control.

The DCCC paid $4,725 today to The Strategy Group for mail services opposing John Hosetettler as well as another $4,725 to support Brad Ellsworth.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/03/2006 08:37:00 PM

The DCCC paid $33,565 today to Great American Media for a media buy opposing Chris Chocola.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/03/2006 08:37:00 PM

Video - WMV

"Local issues mean little," according to Jim Shella of WISH, who made the trip up to Kokomo today to report on a voter reigstration drive at IUK. The story largely focuses on the ramifications of the war in Iraq as part of the station's "Hoosier Voices" series.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/03/2006 07:43:00 PM

But it's not so much a debate as it is a forum:

The event, by the Women's Foundation of Southern Indiana, is meant to give voters a chance to ask federal, state and local candidates about issues important to women.

The two other 9th District candidates, Democrat Baron Hill and Libertarian Eric Schansberg, announced last week that they would attend the event but Sodrel had not committed until this week.

That will make it only the second joint appearance for the three 9th District candidates.

The forum is scheduled for 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. in the Ogle Center on the New Albany campus.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/03/2006 07:41:00 PM

...but not Frank Anderson, because he supported the police merger. IndyStar has more.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/03/2006 07:37:00 PM

Per the Courier Press:

One more Evansville television station has signed on to broadcast live the 7 p.m. debate between Hostettler and Ellsworth, Vanderburgh County’s sheriff.

14WFIE-NBC joins host public TV station WVUT-PBS22 of Vincennes and public TV stations WNIN-PBS9 of Evansville and WTIU-PBS30 of Bloomington. The three public TV stations' radio stations also will broadcast the debate, as will Terre Haute TV station WTWO-NBC2.
...
Peggy Evans, a spokeswoman for the three League of Women Voters chapters, said both campaigns had just signed a final document of agreement to a series of ground rules for the hour-long debate.

"There won't be a panel (of questioners). There will be one moderator, (Knox League member) Lynne Rump, who will ask questions," Evans said.

"Each candidate will answer and, yes, there will be time for rebuttal."

The NRCC's "Six" is now running in the Indianapolis media market. That's a pretty inefficient buy, and isn't ususally seen until the last week of the election...

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/03/2006 04:14:00 PM

The NRCC paid $7,965 yesterday to Arena Communications for direct mail opposing Baron Hill.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 10/03/2006 05:59:00 AM

...but apparently it's only on cable (unveiled this weekend), and I haven't caught it on any of the networks. If you've got a copy, send it my way.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/02/2006 05:22:00 PM

The New York Times wonders whether the Mark Foley scandal will make it harder for Republicans to posture on the issue of protecting children, an issue they've used in the past---and using now in Indiana:

The strategy was on display in Indiana, where the National Republican Congressional Committee recently ran a series of television spots showing a man accused of child molesting who was inadvertently released under the watch of Brad Ellsworth, a county sheriff and a Democratic candidate for Congress.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/02/2006 03:02:00 PM

The DCCC yesterday paid $11,825 to AKP Message & Media for ad production opposing John Hostettler.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/01/2006 04:18:00 PM

The Courier Press has spent nearly as much time defending their ISU poll as they have reporting its results. This time it's the high proportion of women:

Some polling experts expressed concern last week about whether a survey of 8th District voters was flawed because nearly two-thirds of the responses were from women, potentially skewing the results.

The professor who conducted the poll for the Evansville Courier & Press said gender did not affect the poll's outcome, which showed a 15 percentage point lead by challenger Brad Ellsworth over Republican incumbent John Hostettler.

An independent, academic expert and author on polling agreed, saying men and women were not much different in their candidate selection.

The survey was by Indiana State University's Sociology Research Lab and directed by Thomas L. Steiger, a sociology professor at the college in Terre Haute.

Women comprised 63.5 percent of the sample's 602 registered voters. The results were not adjusted for gender, something some pollsters will do to get a sample more representative of the voting public.

Steiger said he didn't see the need to adjust for gender in this case and that the practice is considered controversial among some academic pollsters. Adjusting for too many women in a survey can be done by randomly excluding some responses from women or giving the mens' answers greater weight.

"You can remove certain respondents," Steiger said, "but that raises ethical issues with your respondents. After all, they expect their time to be used and reported."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 10/02/2006 02:59:00 PM

The House passed 165 pork projects last week for endangered Republicans to carry back home. What you'll be reading in local Second District newspapers? Chocola won cash "to deal with leaking underground storage tanks in his district."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/02/2006 02:53:00 PM

His tour will start this Friday, and he's committed to appearances with Joe Donnelly, Brad Ellsworth, and Baron Hill. He'll be back again in late October. He's paid for staff on all three campaigns as well.

Video - WMV

Dick Lugar appeared with Chris Dodd on CNN's Late Edition today. He discussed Bob Woodward's "State of Denial," the Mark Foley page scandal, as well as national security, Iraq, and the War on Terror. This clip is 15 minutes long, at 24MB.

For a minute, I thought Jack Colwell of the South Bend Tribune might have had a scoop, judging by his lead:

Howard Dean, who recovered from the humiliation of his "I have a scream" speech to become Democratic National Committee chairman, could play a decisive role in the Donnelly vs. Chocola race in Indiana's 2nd Congressional District.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee strategists hope that Dean's efforts won't prove to be decisive.

That's right. Democratic strategists hope Dean won't play a decisive role. National Republican Congressional Committee strategists hope that he will.

But Dean's hardly making substantial efforts in the Second, nor has he indicated he will. An agreement by the DCCC and the DNC last month only promised $60,000 of the DNC's cash for each of the DCCC's priority districts, meaning Donnelly will be depending almost entirely upon the DCCC to fill the million-dollar gap Chocola's has over Donnelly. The DNC's paltry contribution might be able to put one ad on the air for the Democrat...and that's the point. Dean's "efforts" are practically nonexistent. How could these "efforts" be divisive if Dean's all but abandoning the nation's most competitive CDs?

The nonsensical lead contradicts the conclusion of his own article:

Congressman Thomas Reynolds of New York, head of the NRCC, talked of research on the pasts of Democratic challengers and warned: "We haven't even begun to unload the freight train."

Emanuel has been furious with Dean because he sees this scenario: When Republicans "unload" their freight train, Dean will be out rebuilding rail lines for phantom future trains in Republican states rather than delivering any needed freight cars to "unload" now in races for control of Congress.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 10/01/2006 09:59:00 AM

The Star has Kennedy/Brizzi debate dates:

- Oct. 8: WISH (Channel 8) will broadcast a 30-minute debate live at 6:30 p.m., with political reporter Jim Shella moderating.

- Oct. 11: Congregation Beth-El Zedeck, 600 W. 70th St., will host a debate at 7:30 p.m. It will be moderated by John Schwantes, host of "Indiana Lawmakers" and a panelist on "Indiana Week in Review," both on WFYI (Channel 20).

- Oct. 17: The Rotary Club of Indianapolis will sponsor a debate at noon at the Murat Arabian Room, 502 N. New Jersey St. Dennis Ryerson, editor of The Indianapolis Star, will moderate.

Details are being worked out for a fourth October debate to be sponsored by WTHR (Channel 13) and The Star and broadcast live. Theresa Wells-Ditton, director of news planning and politics for WTHR, said she was working with both campaigns to set a date.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 10/01/2006 08:10:00 AM

An Indiana On Message analysis of independent expenditures for the month of September shows that nearly $2.5 million dollars was spent by the NRCC and the DCCC in Indiana's most competitive districts, the Second, the "Bloody" Eighth, and the Ninth. Democrats were outspent by over a half-million dollars, only besting their Republican counterparts in IN-02, a district that the NRCC had previously indicated it would sit out. The national Democratic and Republican groups are each dumping the plurality of their Indiana spending into the Eighth district, spending a total of $1.2 million in that district alone. Every public poll taken has shown Democratic challenger Brad Ellsworth leading his opponent, John Hostettler. The two groups have spent some $760,000 in the Ninth, where the NRCC bested the DCCC by a 3-to- 1 margin.

$2.3 of the $2.5 million was spent on television advertising, almost without exception negative.

Analysis district-by-district:

IN-02: $492,040

In the Second District, $492,040 was spent in the month of September by three national groups---AFSCME, the DCCC, and the NRCC---running exclusively negative television ads.

The biggest spender, the DCCC, poured $308,119 into the district, $30,028 of which was spent on ad production, and $278,091 on purchasing air time for the spots. The Democratic group hired Murphy, Putnam, Shorr, and Partners to produce each ad, four in total, all of which are in IOM's ad archive .

The NRCC, which had previously vowed to sit out of IN-02, citing Chocola's ability to self-finance, ended up spending $178,921 in the district. It paid for two polls, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, which totaled $25,410. The polls apparently showed just how much trouble Chris Chocola is in, because four days after the first poll was commissioned, the NRCC decided to jump into the race, and paid Strategic Media Services $72,023 to place ads opposing Democrat Joe Donnelly. The ad, "Dots," was produced by Marsh, Copsey, and Associates , and cost $6,580. A week after the first media buy, the NRCC extended the air time for another $74,908.

AFSCME paid $5,000 to produce television ads opposing Chris Chocola on 9/8, but never paid to air them.

The analysis shows that the DCCC also paid significantly more to media firms for ad production, averaging $7,507 for each spot. The NRCC's lone ad cost $6,580 for production.

IN-08: $1.23 million

$1.23 million dollars was spent in the Bloody Eighth in September by the NRCC and the DCCC, with the NRCC outspending the DCCC by about 1.5-to-1.

Of the NRCC's spending, totaling $752,878, 100% was devoted to negative communications---$66,246 of it on direct mail, $673,927 on television advertising. Stevens, Reed, Curcio, and Potholm got all of the NRCC's production contracts, charging the organization $26,264. $647,663 was spent to air those ads.

The DCCC paid the Strategy Group a total of $9,334 for direct mail, half supporting Brad Ellsworth, and half opposing John Hostettler. $26,105 was paid to AKP Message & Media to produce two negative ads (both in IOM's ad archive, as well as a new one released yesterday) opposing John Hostettler. It paid $467,252 to air the ads in the Eighth. A total of $457,586 was spent by the DCCC. 0.009% of the spending was on positive communications---in this instance, direct mail.

AFSCME paid $5,000 to the Campaign Group, which handled Governor Joe Kernan's media in 2004, to produce television ads opposing Hostettler on 9/8, but never paid to air them.

IN-09: $760,115

The NRCC spent three times more than the DCCC in September, leaving Democrats with a significant cash disparity in one of the nation's most competitive Congressional districts. A third the DCCC's communications were positive; none of the NRCC's were.

Further, the DCCC indicated a much stronger commitment to direct mail, paying the Baughman Company a total of $26,932 for it---half positive, half negative. It spent $164,886 on television; GMMB produced the three ads for $20,565, and they were aired in four separate media buys totaling $144,321.

The NRCC, which spent a total of $568,297 in the district, spent $547,718 on television. Five payments were made to Anthem Media, totaling $24,950, for ad production. $522,768 was spent to air those advertisements. It paid $20,579 for two polls, one conducted on 9/13 and the other conducted on 9/27. Both were performed by the Tarrance Group.

National groups have spent over $850,000 in Indiana’s Big Three through August of this year, according the Political Money Line. The totals only reflect independent expenditures.

$266,603 was spent in Indiana's Second, with all but $21,000 in opposition to Chris Chocola. MoveOn.org Political Action spent $245,603 in the district.

The least was spent in IN-09, which was, until Labor Day, a surprisingly sleepy district... Less than $30,000 was spent, $13,852 of which came from the NRA, and $16,250 from the NRCC, both in support of Mike Sodrel.

Over $555,000 was spent in the Bloody Eighth, $261,070 of which was from the NRCC opposing Brad Ellsworth, and from the DCCC, $273,469 opposing John Hostettler.

Ellsworth says he's in no man's land:

The Vanderburgh County sheriff proclaimed himself "a person who's going to try to bridge that gap between the two extremes."

Ellsworth said his anti-abortion and pro-gun rights views are long held, not adopted for expediency's sake as he tries to unseat Rep. John Hostettler, R-Ind.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has blitzed the 8th District with television ads and mailers that stop short of calling Ellsworth a liberal, but say his elevation to Congress would bring liberal Democratic leaders one step closer to power.
...
"My vote is not for sale," Ellsworth said. "If people give me money, they know my Web site's out there, they know what I stand for. People know that I'm on the conservative side of the Democratic Party."

Ellsworth pointed out that Hostettler has accepted money from political committees controlled by other Republican members of Congress, which he said get their money from "special interests."

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/30/2006 09:16:00 AM

Video - WMV

The IWIR panel was much more receptive to Melina Kennedy's ad than Carl Brizzi was, for sure...

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 9/29/2006 08:53:00 PM

Video - WMV

Greg Walker's chances at winning Bob Garton's now-vacated seat were whipped by his flogger remarks, according to the IWIR panel, which was almost unanimous in its pessimism for the Republican.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-Senate at 9/29/2006 08:57:00 PM

The DCCC today paid $2,775 to Murphy Putnam Shorr & Partners for ad production opposing Chris Chocola. Previously the DCCC has paid the same company upwards of $8,000 for ad production...Perhaps they're just modifying "Think" to get it back on the air?

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/29/2006 08:11:00 PM

The DCCC paid today The Strategy Group today $4,667 for direct mail opposing John Hostettler and $4,667 for mail supporting Brad Ellsworth.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/29/2006 08:10:00 PM

The DCCC today paid GMMB $10,765 for ad production opposing Mike Sodrel, $6,733 to The Baughman Company for direct mail opposing Sodrel, and $6,733 to the same company for mail services in support of Baron Hill.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/29/2006 08:07:00 PM

I've posted a whole bunch of ads today---three from IN-02, and five from IN-09. I considered back-dating them in the archive, but I figured they'd be likely looked over by regular readers looking for the newest spots.. The home page only displays the most recent six ads, and the side bar only three, so you need to check out the archive.

Some are more than a week old (they've slipped through the cracks), like the DCCC's "Hose" and "Bother," and the NRCC's "Out of Touch." The Sodrel campaign released "Jobs" and "Jobs 2," but they're not posted to their website yet.

Meanwhile, the new DCCC ad in IN-02, "Pocket," which was "fact checked" by WSBT last night, is here. A nearly new NRCC ad in IN-09, "Six," is here.

And Baron Hill released a brand new ad today in the Louisville market, called "Iraq."

Mike Sodrel is out with an ad claiming that--and I'm totally serious--Baron Hill is the candidate who supports Social Security privatization.

Hill says it "blatantly lies" by citing a quote to an article that it never appeared in. What Hill said, that it'd be a "good idea" for the government to invest part of the Social Security trust fund, is in this video.

More:

The candidate called on four Louisville television stations to stop airing the commercial, which contains the "I'm Mike Sodrel and I approve this message," tag line at the end.

Apparently, that approval came just a little too soon. The ad will be changed slightly but the message will remain the same, said Sodrel campaign manager Cam Savage.

"We're going to remove the quotes from the words 'good idea,'" Savage said.

Other than that the ad will be exactly the same.

Savage maintains that there is nothing wrong with the commercial. It is representative of Hill's views on social security, he said.

He points to the lines in the C-J’s article in which Lesley Stedman Weidenbener writes: "Hill said last week that if the government more aggressively invested its funds -- in a balanced way that is ensured against loss, perhaps in mutual funds -- it could at least slow the looming problems with Social Security."

That proves that he is in favor of social security privatization, Savage said.

Hill says that Sodrel is the one who favors privatization. Sodrel has advocated voluntary personal accounts for social security money.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/29/2006 06:09:00 PM

The NRCC paid today $151,206 to Strategic Media Services to place ads opposing Brad Ellsworth.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/29/2006 06:02:00 PM

The NRCC today paid Crossroads Media $283,999 to place an ad opposing Baron Hill.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/29/2006 06:01:00 PM

The South Bend Tribune:

Former congressman John Brademas, campaigning for Democratic congressional candidate Joe Donnelly, said Congress has changed for the worse since his days in the Capitol.

"What is particularly striking to me -- as is obviously observed by the American people -- is the lack of civility, of comity, of respect for different views that now characterizes the nation's capital," Brademas said.

"What is, I think, significant about what has been happening in recent years, during the administration of the present George Bush," Brademas said, "is that Congress has been acting more like the national legislature in a parliamentary system, that is to say, slavishly supporting the policies of the executive, George Bush."

Brademas said that is particularly true of incumbent U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola, whom he said has voted with President Bush 94 percent of the time and followed the "Republican Party line" 98 percent of the time.

"Your congressman is a rubber stamp for George Bush!" Brademas said.

Chocola spokesman Brooks Kochvar said in response that Chocola has promised in his campaigns to keep taxes low and the nation safe from terrorists "and it comes as no surprise that that is how he voted."

Kochvar said Chocola has also voted against the president on issues such as immigration and the Dubai Ports deal.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/29/2006 04:13:00 PM

Video - WMV

Stephen Colbert has declared Santa Claus, Indiana, the first front in this year's annual War on Christmas.

Baron Hill won the endorsement of the VFW today:

"I usually don't get real worked up on endorsements because I don't think they mean a lot," Hill said at a press conference in Veterans' Plaza at Market and 10th streets in New Albany. "But this one means a lot to me."

He added, "I am very proud to have this endorsement."

Mounty Mount, a Korean War veteran and Crothersville VFW Post 1083 member who introduced Hill, said the former congressman "fought for improved veterans' benefits" while he was in the House.

Mount said the VFW committee backs Hill for his support of "veterans, national security, defense and military personnel."

Both Mount and Hill criticized Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel, who defeated Hill two years ago.

Hill said Sodrel has "repeatedly voted against veterans and their families" by opposing lower health-care fees and health insurance for reservists and National Guard members.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/29/2006 03:02:00 PM

Brad Ellsworth is opposed to Social Security privatization:

"Democrats, Republicans, people that have studied this issue, have met," Shively told Ellsworth. "And our Social Security system is in peril. Then, if not allowing part of Social Security to be privatized ... then what is your solution to save Social Security so it is there for the retirement of the next generation?"

Ellsworth reiterated his opposition to the proposal that would allow workers under age 55 to divert some of their Social Security contributions into a private account. In that plan, younger workers' future benefits would be reduced by the amount they diverted and an additional 3 percent.

"As I've looked into the privatization, I have not seen one thing that guarantees the benefit, that proves that it will make the program last longer," he said. "It looked to me like it's going to cost trillions of dollars to implement, and then really only benefit the Wall Street investment firms.

"I think the first thing you have to do is quit robbing the fund."

Shively said "the robbing started" in the 1960s, when the administration of Democratic President Lyndon Johnson was funding the Vietnam War.

"What is the solution?" Shively pressed. "What do we do? Do we raise taxes? I mean, when they say the only alternative is to continue benefit levels so that they're there, at the level they are now, is to raise taxes. You know, employment taxes. Is that what you favor?"

Ellsworth said he doesn't favor raising taxes. He said Republicans and Democrats in Congress must put an end to "bipartisan bickering" over issues.

"I don't have the answers to all these things," he said. "What the congressman's job to do is find those people, get in there, have those meetings, find the experts, and then, pick out the solutions and implement those, and I think that's what you do when you get there."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/29/2006 06:12:00 AM

The House has passed John Hostettler's bill that would prevent the ACLU from collecting fees from religion cases:

The House of Representatives has approved a bill to prevent the American Civil Liberties Union from collecting government funds when it succeeds at legal challenges to public expressions of religion.

Representatives voted 244-173 Sept. 26 for the Public Expression of Religion Act (PERA), with 26 Democrats joining 218 Republicans in the majority.

The effort to gain Senate approval of the legislation likely will be a difficult one. Congress is scheduled to recess Sept. 29 or 30, though it is expected to reconvene in November for a "lame-duck" session.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/29/2006 06:11:00 AM

Nancy Pelosi might actually become a rallying cry for the GOP:

If you've heard of Nancy Pelosi, you're probably a Republican.That's one fascinating finding from our new Diageo/Hotline poll, which suggests House GOPers are working to raise the would-be Speaker's profile with their base. They don't like what they hear (her GOP unfavs are twice as high as Hastert's Dem unfavs).

In the HotlineTV segment today, though, editor Chuck Todd seemed doubtful. He noted that Henry Waxman has a 3% name ID rating in IN-02...

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/28/2006 07:24:00 PM

Today the NRCC paid Anthem Media $7,980 to produce an ad opposing Baron Hill.
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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/28/2006 07:17:00 PM

No Second District TV station will run the DCCC's "Think." Apparently the only place it's running is on IOM...
From Chocola's camp:

Today, the dominoes of credibility continued to fall as WBND-TV, WSJV-TV and Comcast Spotlight (12 Stations), all reached the conclusion that the slanderous attacks in the commercial cross the line of acceptability and cannot be substantiated. This means the commercial will not be airing on any television station in the 2nd District.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/28/2006 07:12:00 PM

Hill to participate in forum:

Baron Hill today agreed to participate in a Candidates’ Forum on Tuesday, October 3, hosted by the Women's Foundation of Southern Indiana in New Albany. All candidates running for state and federal offices will have the opportunity to answer questions from the audience in a panel-discussion format.

"I am excited to go before the people of the 9th District and speak openly and honestly about the real issues facing Southern Indiana," said Hill. It was unfortunate that the previously-scheduled debate in New Albany on October 1 was canceled due to Mike Sodrel's unwillingness to participate. I'm glad this new opportunity has come up, and it is my hope that Mike Sodrel won't duck from the chance to discuss the issues that are important to Hoosiers."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/28/2006 03:09:00 PM

Democrats are trying to get some play from "Doughnut Hole Day," a reference to the gap in coverage from the Medicare prescription drug plan:

"This most recent report highlights a major flaw in the new Medicare prescription drug plan," said 9th District Democratic Challenger Baron Hill. "No American should go without lifesaving treatment because he or she cannot afford the cost of prescription drugs."

Hill described the gap as "deserting" seniors and said that needed to change.

Hill offered that he would favor a system in which drug benefits are added to the Medicare system as a monthly payment -- essentially skipping the complexity of doughnut holes, multiple plans and other factors. People who need drug benefits can pay the extra month costs while people who don't won't, he said.

Democrats have been using the new report as a campaign tool since it was released last week. Critics of the program seized upon the report, which was based on data provided by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, a federal agency.

Last Friday was even declared "Doughnut Hole Day" by some critics, the statistical day in which most seniors would fall into the gap.

Numerous attempts to reach Republican incumbent Mike Sodrel for this article were unsuccessful. Cam Savage, Sodrel's campaign manager, noted that this is the first time the government has offered a drug benefit. People are saving money from it, he said. And that's the important thing.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/28/2006 02:41:00 PM

Two South Bend stations, WNDU-TV and WSBT-TV, have pulled a DCCC ad for "innacuracy." From Chocola's press release:

Today Joe Donnelly's ally, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), aired a commercial in the South Bend Media market falsely accusing Congressman Chris Chocola of accepting a Congressional pay raise and voting against the minimum wage increase. Shortly after the commercial began airing, the two largest stations, WNDU-TV and WSBT-TV pulled the ad, citing the ad's inaccuracy. Stations are not obligated to run commercials by third party organizations if the commercials are false or cannot be substantiated.

"Donnelly and his allies have proven that they will go to any length to win this election, including airing bold-faced lies about Chris Chocola and his record," said Chocola spokesman Brooks Kochvar. "The voters of the 2nd district deserve better than the lies and deception that Donnelly and his friends at MoveOn.org and the DCCC are trying to use."

The DCCC ad falsely claims that Chocola voted against raising the minimum wage, a claim they pulled out of thin air. Chocola actually voted for the federal minimum wage increase on July 29, 2006 (HR 5970). The DCCC was unable to substantiate the charge that Chocola opposed the minimum wage increase because Chocola has never voted against raising the minimum wage.

The misleading commercial also claims that Chocola accepted congressional pay raises, even though it has been widely reported that Chocola has voted against the pay raise in each of his four years in office. These votes occurred on September 4, 2003 (Roll Call 463), September 14, 2004 (Roll Call 451), June 28, 2005 (Roll Call 327), and June 13, 2006 (Roll Call 261), respectively.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/28/2006 02:37:00 PM

My premiere column for the Howey Political Report:

Joe Donnelly is no "Democrat in name only." He's hardly a Democrat in name at all, because he's erased the word from nearly everything his campaign produces. And amongst the pack of Democratic challengers across the country that may well soon be swept into the halls of power, he's not alone.

Donnelly used to be more upfront. When he ran a scrappy, self-guided campaign in 2004, each of his yard signs read, "Democrat for Congress." His limited TV ads and website did too. In early 2006, his message was the same. He was a true believer, to be sure...right up until his race "mattered."

In August, E.J. Dionne correctly observed in the Washington Post that "Karl Rove's greatest victory is how much he has spooked Democrats about themselves."

And it's ironic that as national Democrats become more attentive of Donnelly's race---just as his support reached its pinnacle and financing began pouring in from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic interest groups---Donnelly skirted the Democratic label, erasing it from his walk cards, his yard signs, and his television ads. Donnelly campaign aides have privately asked me to play down the Granger Democrat's new strategy, for fear of angering the party faithful that the campaign so depends upon, and the campaign itself refused comment, citing internal deliberations.

When national support similarly coalesced around Brad Ellsworth, the National Republican Campaign Committee spent hundreds of thousands of dollars running television ads linking the conservative candidate to liberal Nancy Pelosi. So perhaps Donnelly's new high-priced consultants were attempting to immunize him against the expected attacks (we'll see if it works...the NRCC began airing an ad "connecting the dots" between Pelosi and Donnelly last week; the connected dots spell out "liberal."), because, after all, being a Democrat doesn't poll well in Indiana.

Perhaps it might if the image of the Democratic Party better represented the bulk of its members---reliable moderates like Hill and Ellsworth. The GOP deserves a good deal of credit for so ably besmirching the Democratic name—certainly the word "liberal." But Democrats too are to blame for their weak-kneed self-image problem influenced first by domineering Republicans and only second by conviction or any sense of self-worth. Ellsworth and Donnelly alike invite attacks from the NRCC when they allow their more liberal colleagues to define what their party is, and by that stretch, what they are.

This is all done intentionally, of course. Democrats are so slavish to polling and focus group data that they're even willing to shed part of their identity to get elected—a poor display of sincerity that doesn't bode well for any leader, Democratic or Republican.

Which comes first? Democrats standing up to win elections, or Democrats standing up after being validated by elections?

The latter might happen if Democrats win the House this fall, largely benefitting from luck that's the result of a numbingly long list of Republican missteps. But until then, about the only place candidates like Donnelly will call themselves Democrats is on the November ballot---and likely then only because it's required by law.

Two DCCC media buys underscore the balance between positive and negative ads: they paid Great American Media $9,897 to place ads in support of Baron Hill, and $60,796 for air time opposing Mike Sodrel.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/28/2006 06:12:00 AM

The DCCC paid Murphy Putnam Shorr & Partners, LLC $8,710 to produce an ad opposing Chris Chocola, and $79,449 to Great American Media to purchase air time opposing Chocola as well.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/28/2006 06:09:00 AM

The DCCC paid $129,164 to Great American Media to place ads opposing John Hostettler.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/28/2006 06:11:00 AM

It's a bit odd that the Hostettler campaign is such in a tizzy over this Courier-Press/ISU poll. While I agree that the poll has flaws, there are plenty of other polls which are, in fact, scientific and professional---some which show greater leads for Ellsworth than even the ISU one.

Stan Barringer, the Hostettler campaign's research director, noted that the Courier & Press refused to release the questions asked to respondents when the poll was conducted between Sept. 6-21. He added that Hostettler's campaign office has received calls from poll respondents concerned with the questions.

"Well, it makes a big difference [in the poll's viability] because the Courier is claiming this is not a 'push' poll, which is a method of polling that [asks] forceful, opinionated questions," Barringer said, "but stories we've heard by people who were polled by Indiana State were that some of the questions were forceful."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/27/2006 03:53:00 PM

Now, I don't mean to be down on Joe Donnelly, but I bet this is the only time his image and name will grace the front page of the New York Times:

The article, which doesn't even mention Chocola or Donnelly, is here. A PDF of the front page is right here. South Bend Tribune reporters, apparently trying to overcompensate for the fact that they aren't working for the New York Times, headlined an error the NYT made, which was corrected in the late edition:

The good news for U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola, R-2nd, is that his campaign against Democrat Joe Donnelly is mentioned prominently in today's editions of the New York Times.

The bad news is that the paper apparently tried to change his gender.

A front-page caption under a photo of a Chocola campaign ad, says: "Representative Chris Chocola, a Republican, criticizes her opponent on illegal immigration."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/27/2006 03:05:00 PM

The South Bend Tribune has an update:

While the Chocola campaign has been pushing for five meetings between the candidates, the Donnelly campaign said Tuesday that the challenger has agreed to just three appearances, with the first one to be at 6 p.m. Tuesday at Rochester High School.

Donnelly spokeswoman Katie Nee said the candidate has also agreed to televised appearances at 8 p.m. Oct. 21 on WSBT-TV and at 7 p.m. Oct. 28 on WNDU-TV.

Chocola spokesman Brooks Kochvar characterized the situation as an indication that the Donnelly campaign knows that Chocola’s views are "more in step" with those of the district.

"We've agreed to five," Kochvar said. "If they choose not to participate in two, that’s news to me."

Nee said the Donnelly campaign never agreed to take part in more than three debates.

"That they're calling for five debates is a sign of where we are in the polls," said Nee, noting that Donnelly believes "three debates are sufficient."

The debate in Rochester is being hosted by the Rochester Sentinel and the Rochester High School advanced placement government class. It will last for one hour and will be moderated by government teacher Mike Whirledge.

The debate on WSBT-TV is to be hosted by the station and the League of Women Voters of Elkhart County, while the WNDU debate is hosted by that station. Both programs will be aired live.

Left out of the mix is a simultaneous appearance between the candidates on Logansport and Kokomo radio stations that had been tentatively set for 4 p.m. Wednesday but was never agreed to by Donnelly.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/26/2006 08:41:00 PM

The DCCC paid today The Baughman Company $6,733 for "mail services" in support of Baron Hill and another $6,733 to the same company for "mail services" opposing Mike Sodrel.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/26/2006 07:14:00 PM

Video - WMV

RE: this Star article.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 9/26/2006 06:32:00 PM

A whole range of national security issues from the Courier Press:

Ellsworth said no weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq, but since American troops are there, it is imperative to support them with equipment and manpower.

"I oppose what is called 'cutting and running,' an immediate (troop) drawdown or giving a public timeline for getting out of Iraq," he said. "The insurgency would just ramp up their violence then, and say they defeated America."

Ellsworth said he prefers that America depart Iraq when the Iraqi government asks it to - and if American and Iraqi military experts agree that is a good idea.

Fighting terrorism, Ellsworth said, is a matter of applying the best minds in American intelligence agencies without inter-departmental jealousy or bureaucratic inefficiencies.

"I'm not against beefing up (intelligence agencies') budgets, if it's going to be practical and not to reward a contractor," he said.

On his campaign Web site, Ellsworth makes it clear he would support a full prosecution of the Iraq War, regardless of his feelings about the wisdom of entering that country.

"The flag is an ideal, not a piece of cloth," the site quotes Ellsworth. "There's not a person here that wouldn't lay down their life for it, and thank God for those overseas who do.

"We certainly didn't start this war with the terrorists, and until it's won I'm going to support the brave men and women fighting it.That means weapons, equipment, and support here at home.They're laying it all on the line for us, and they deserve nothing less in return."

Hostettler, chairman of the House Immigration, Border Security and Claims Subcommittee, did not respond to an interview request, but he has a 12-year record on national security issues and has linked the issue of fighting terrorism at home to securing our borders from illegal immigrants.

Speaking after he voted to help pass a bill implementing many of the 9/11 Commission's recommendations for combating terrorism in 2004, Hostettler said law enforcement must have the tools to catch and prosecute terrorists.

"The intent of our enemies has not changed and the threat of another attack is very real," said Hostettler, who voted against the invasion in Iraq and now supports the war effort. "The addition of this bill to our anti-terrorism arsenal goes a long way toward making America safer."

The poll also says that 48.7 percent of respondents who called a candidate's views on foreign policy "very important" support Ellsworth, compared to 33.7 percent for Hostettler.

The candidates ran evenly among poll respondents who said a candidate's view on developing a comprehensive U.S. missile defense weapons system is "very important."

Hostettler got 38.1 percent of that vote compared to Ellsworth's 40.9 percent.

The South Bend Tribune published part two of two in their "issues" series, questioning both candidates about the economy:

Q: What can the United States do to improve the ability of American manufacturers to sell goods overseas?

Chocola: We have to make sure we are competing on an equal footing. I am a co-author of the China Act, an approach to stop China from manipulating its currency. It would require the secretary of the treasury to determine if China is manipulating its currency. If it is, there would be a tariff equal to the value of the manipulation that would be added to imported goods from China. We have to make sure that we have a level playing field.

If I was going to criticize the administration, I do not think it has been aggressive enough in its approach to China and trade. China will do what's in its best interests so long as we let them. We have to make sure we are doing what's in our best interests. That's what this bill addresses. In 2005, we passed the Trade Rights Enforcement Act that helps put U.S. companies in a more competitive position and addresses currency issues. It was a message to the administration to be more engaging with China on trade policy.

Donnelly: Number one is what I said earlier, fair trade laws. Number two is protecting our manufacturers' intellectual property. We have seen the concepts behind patents stolen many times over the years. These are a few of the steps we can start with.

Q: What can the United States do to improve the ability of American manufacturers to sell their goods at home?

Donnelly: Again, fair trade laws throughout the world to make American manufacturers more competitive here. It would end the dumping of foreign products in our market, where they are sold at below cost. Also, government contracts should have a preference for American-made products, which now isn't the case in every situation. I'm a strong believer in competition and trade, but if it's our hard-earned tax dollars, having a preference for American-made products of equal cost and quality doesn't hurt anybody and helps our small businesses and all American companies.

Chocola: The enemy of job creation is excess taxation, excess regulation and excess litigation. There are certainly appropriate regulations and necessary regulations in a lot of areas. We need to review them to make sure they are achieving their original intent. I am the author of a tort reform bill that would reform the tort system into a loser-pays model like they have in Europe. It would reduce the number of frivolous lawsuits.

That's how we make companies more competitive, here and worldwide. In China, they don't have a tort system. Companies don't have the cost of frivolous lawsuits. I'm not saying China is good, but a loser-pays tort system would put U.S. companies in a more competitive position.

Q: Do you support an increase in the minimum wage?

Chocola: I have voted for it. It passed the House; I can't control the Senate. If the Senate had passed the bill, the minimum wage would have been increased by now. Those that voted against it in the Senate held that up. The House version was bipartisan. It would have increased the minimum wage from $5.15 to $7.25 over three years.

Donnelly: Absolutely. It's been almost 10 years since the minimum wage was increased. It's time that we made that adjustment. I supported the portions of recent legislation to increase the minimum wage and support legislation that would exempt estates worth up to $5 million for an individual and up to $10 million for couples. Both policies are good for America.

Q: How imperative is it to reduce the trade imbalance in terms of national security, and what dangers, if any, are there in not addressing this issue?

Donnelly: I believe the trade imbalance is a crisis situation and endangers our national security. The overall trade imbalance is at $800 billion per year. We have a situation where American dollars are flooding overseas and threatening our future and our children's future. New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman made the comment that, in the Middle East, the United States is funding both sides. We fund our military with our tax dollars, and we fund the other side with our petroleum purchases.

The same situation is now occurring in China, where the $200 billion we send to that country each year is partially used to build up and strengthen China's military. We need to fix this trade imbalance, and we need to fix it quickly.

Chocola: Reducing the trade imbalance is a good thing. The way we do that is to make U.S. companies more competitive through tax policies and through reduction in regulation and litigation. If we reduce our debt by reforming our budget process and by prioritizing our spending better, the trade imbalance will come down. It's a result of these other things. U.S. companies will sell more in the global marketplace and we will need to sell less of our debt to countries such as China and Japan because our debt will be smaller.

The bottom line is, the smaller our national debt, the less foreign entities can buy and the smaller the problem is. We need to reduce the debt and then this problem will be minimized as well.

Q: Is the nation spending too much, too little or about the right amount on defense?

Chocola: We are not spending too little. We have to realize that we are in a global war on terror and we are not investing too much. Probably the most important issue we face as a nation is success in the global war on terror. It's bigger than Iraq, bigger than Afghanistan.

Donnelly: It appears to be about the right amount. We need to give our troops everything they need to protect themselves and successfully do their job.

Q: If there were no war in Iraq, would you use the billions being spent there to reduce the national debt or use it to improve education, improve access to health care or on some other program?

Donnelly: I don't think it's an either-or choice. We can use funds freed up from eliminating oil company tax breaks to improve education. There's other wasteful spending we can eliminate as well. I would use it to reduce the national debt then seek to redirect spending to try and accomplish both lower debt and improved education.

Chocola: I would say we should reduce the debt. If you think the debt's too big, at some point you can't keep spending. Spending more is not going to reduce the debt. You can't have it both ways.

Q: What steps need to be taken now to avoid future Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security funding shortfalls?

Chocola: We're going to have to get above and beyond politics and have a bipartisan effort to explore all options that will responsibly address the unsustainable challenges in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. It's a $46 trillion problem.

By 2040, Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security and interest payments will exceed federal revenue. That means there is no Department of Defense, no Department of Education, no department of anything unless we address this responsibly. That's why we need to get beyond the politics of this. That $46 trillion will be added to the debt, or at least a large chunk of it. We are on an unsustainable path. That's why I spend a lot of time on these issues. You can't solve this problem until you define the problem, and the American people demand that their elected officials quit playing politics and get serious about this.

Donnelly: Two immediate steps -- Social Security funds should not be used to pay down government obligations. They should be segregated. The Medicare Part D law should be changed to allow negotiation of drug prices. Those are two immediate steps we could take, then look for other ways to strengthen more programs.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/26/2006 06:11:00 PM

Video - WMV (WTHR) | Video - WMV (WRTV)

Indiana House Republicans did their 6th signing of giant sheet of paper today, this time promising to boost veterans benefits. From the Indianapolis Star:

Veterans and active-duty soldiers would receive heftier tax credits, deductions, childcare assistance and other benefits under an election-year plan offered today by House Republicans.

The proposals, which lawmakers said would be put before next year's General Assembly, include:

- Exempting active-duty pay of Indiana Reservists and National Guard members from state income taxes.

- Increasing tax deductions for active-duty soldiers from $2,000 to $5,000.

- Expanding the state’s Military Family Relief Fund to include childcare assistance and cover all active-duty personnel.

- Limiting public access to soldiers' military discharge papers, which contain personal information.

House Speaker Brian C. Bosma, R-Indianapolis, made the announcement in front of the stoic Downtown memorial for the sunken battleship, U.S.S. Indianapolis.

The National Journal is out with their latest House Race Rankings, ranking all three of Indiana's competitive CDs amongst the top ten in the nation---6th (IN-08), 7th (IN-09), and 8th (IN-02). Their analysis:

IN-08: A recent independent poll showed Hostettler within 4 points, 44 percent to 40 percent. He's well under the magic 50-percent mark, but he's hoping his supporters will turn out in greater numbers than Ellsworth's. Seems less and less likely as the weeks go by, though.

IN-09: Hill's first ad talks about his "Hoosier values" -- patriotism, faith and opposition to gay marriage. That's the right message in this culturally conservative district.

IN-02: The latest independent poll again shows Donnelly leading Chocola, 50 percent to 42 percent. Donnelly's looking like the real deal, and his Notre Dame ties certainly help in this South Bend district. We've been hesitant to move the race this high because of history. But clearly, Indiana is a GIGANTIC problem for the GOP.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/26/2006 05:50:00 PM

The Indianapolis Star reported today Melina Kennedy's new charges that Carl Brizzi's failures as prosecutor left a criminal on the streets, and allowed him to kill. If only her ads were this aggressive.

She was referring to Terrence "Mob" Anderson, 23, who was arrested in June 2005 and charged with three killings over two days on Indianapolis' Eastside.

In May 2005, Anderson had been in Marion County Jail on potential battery, handgun and cocaine possession charges. But Anderson was released while the prosecutor’s office waited for ballistics test results.

Several days later, on June 3, the prosecutor's office filed charges -- but Anderson wasn't arrested before the slayings on June 9 and June 10.

One of two shooting victims in one of the May incidents had identified Anderson in a photo lineup, but Brizzi and other officials said stronger evidence was needed. Once the test results came back June 3, Brizzi said, charges were filed as soon as possible.

"This is yet another in a series of misstatements by my opponent, who doesn't understand the process, who's never tried a case or put a criminal behind bars," said Brizzi, adding that suspects can't be held more than three days without charges. "We couldn't be any more aggressive without violating our Constitutional obligations."

Anderson has been convicted in the murder of Thomas Edmondson, 21, and sentenced to 60 years in prison. He was acquitted in the murder of Kerry Burk, 19. A trial is set Oct. 23 in the murder a third man, Tyric Rudolph, 16, and on the charges stemming from the May 2005 incidents.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 9/26/2006 05:34:00 PM

Watch Video

Carl Brizzi is online with his second cartoon, this time with an inexperienced car mechanic botching a repair job.

Also: Melina Kennedy will reportedly take to the air tomorrow with her third television ad.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 9/26/2006 05:30:00 PM

The Indiana Medical Political Action Committee filed its FEC report today. From 1/1/2005 through 6/30/2006, it took in $259,432, spent $236,371, and has $158,157 CoH.

It's donated $1,000 each to Chris Chocola and Baron Hill, as well as this string of bipartisan contributions:

House Republican Campaign Committee $7,000
Senate Majority Campaign Committee $5,000
Bauer for State Rep , Patrick $4,500
Garton for State Senate, Robert $4,500
Bosma for State Rep , Brian $4,000
Indiana House Democratic Caucus $3,000
Senate Democrats $2,300
Brown for State Rep , Charlie $2,000
Pelath for State Rep , Scott $2,000
Ripley for State Rep , Michael $2,000
Fry for State Rep , Craig $1,800
Lewis for State Senate, James $1,600
Meeks for State Senate, Robert $1,550
Brown for State Rep , Tim $1,500
Budak for State Rep , Mary Kay $1,500
Simpson for State Senate, Vi $1,400
Crouch for State Rep , Suzanne $1,300
Frizzell for State Rep , David $1,300
Torr for State Rep , Jerry $1,250
Lanane for State Senate, Tim $1,050
Indiana Senate Democrats Committee $1,000
Miller for State Senate, Pat $1,000
Pond for State Rep , Phyllis $1,000
Welch for State Rep , Peggy $1,000
Behning for State Rep , Robert $800
Long for State Senate, David $800
Sipes for State Senate, Connie $800
Skinner for State Senate, Tim $800
Wyss for State Senator, Tom $800
Young for State Senate, Richard $800
Reske for State Rep , Scott $750
VanHaaften for State Rep , Trent $750
Denbo for State Rep , Jerry $600
Gard for State Senate, Beverly $600
Richardson for State Rep , Kathy $600
Becker for State Rep , Vaneta $500
Borror for State Rep , Randy $500
Crawford for State Rep , William $500
Espich for State Rep , Jeffrey $500
Kenley for State Senate, Luke $500
Kuzman for State Rep , Robert $500
Lawson for State Senate, Connie $500
Lehe for State Rep , Donald $500
Mishler for State Senate, Ryan $500
Orentlicher, M D for St Rep, David $500
Rokita for Sec of St , Todd $500
Stilwell for State Rep , Russ $500
Turner for St Rep, Eric $500
Tyler for St Rep , Dennis $500
Breaux for State Senate, Billie $300
Goodin for State Rep , Terry $300
Grubb for State Rep , Dale $300
Gutwein for State Rep , Eric $300
Mengelt for St Rep , Lee Ann $300
Porter for State Rep , Greg $300
Walorski for St Rep , Jackie $300
Zakas for State Senate, Joe $300
Bardon for State Rep , Jeb $250
Dodge for St Rep, Richard $250
Neese for St Rep , Tim $250
Bell for St Rep , Matt $200
Hume for State Senate, Lindel $200

The NRCC has an ad up in IN-09 (if you have it, please send it my way), and Baron Hill came out swinging today:

Baron Hill today refuted claims by a recent National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) television ad criticizing Hill's record on families, seniors, and small businesses. In actuality, it's Mike Sodrel who is hurting the average Hoosier by calling for the abolishment of the minimum wage, the privatization of Social Security, and the cutback of small business loans.

"This recent attack ad is simply meant to scare Hoosiers into voting for Mike Sodrel, and I think the people of the 9th District have had enough of his misplaced priorities," said Hill. "In Congress, I'll fight for the interests of families, seniors, and small businesses. Mike Sodrel, on the other hand, continues to prove he's out of touch with the Hoosiers he represents. While he rubber stamps the Bush administration's fiscally irresponsible policies, the people of Indiana are paying the price -- and they want change."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/26/2006 05:18:00 PM

The NRCC paid Public Opinion Strategies yesterday for a poll conducted in IN-02 on behalf of Chris Chocola.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/26/2006 05:58:00 AM

Already. And there's plenty more to come.

Finally, in Indiana, the NRCC has spent $364,000 this month on negative advertising, excluding production costs, against Democrat Brad Ellsworth, who is running a spirited race against Rep. John Hostettler (R-Ind.). The GOP also spent $22,000 on a direct mail piece.

The DCCC has been in the game since July when an NRCC advertisement alleged that Ellsworth, a local sheriff, released a child molester from jail while he was campaigning in Washington, D.C. The prisoner was mistakenly released. In September, the Democrats have shelled out more than $240,000 to hit Hostettler on television.

Moreover, the spending patterns also indicate that candidates are penalized for not reserving time early in a race; the longer a campaign waits, the more expensive airtime becomes. Spending jumped in the last week of September.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/25/2006 07:18:00 PM

WNDU:

First Lady Laura Bush is making a trip to Michiana next month.

She is heading to South Bend to campaign for Chris Chocola.

Sources tell NewsCenter 16 the first lady will attend a luncheon at South Bend's Century Center on October 12th.

The luncheon is invite only, and will cost Chocola supporters $100 a plate.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/25/2006 07:14:00 PM

Video - WMV High | Video - WMV Low

PBS's NewsHour visited IN-09 and filed a thorough, nine-minute-long report, interviewing both Baron Hill and Mike Sodrel, as well as Brian Howey, editor of the Howey Political Report. It's a must-watch, to be sure.

I've even gone so far as to offer two bandwith versions to accomodate all of you dial-up slow pokes; you won't want to miss out on this one.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/25/2006 05:45:00 PM

The Indiana Democratic Congressional Victory Committee filed its financial report with the FEC today, accounting through 8/31/6. In the month of August, the organization, affiliated with the Indiana Democratic Party, began with $199,127 CoH, took in $316,959, spent $226,681, and ended the month with $289,405 CoH.

Between 1/1/2005 and 8/31/2006, the committee reported receipts totaling $2,400,152, and expenditures totaling $2,303,187. It has $289,405 on hand. It's spent $103,651 for Ellsworth campaign payroll, $51,952 for Carson staff, and $43,115 for Hill staff. It's made 22 payments to field staff, totaling $17,675. The committee is also paying staff on the Hayhurst campaign (IN-03), spending $15,805.

It's spent even less for Donnelly's staff, $15,044, and $13,096 on payroll for Senator Evan Bayh. $623 has been spent on Melina "Kennedy payroll."

The committee's taken $52,685 from engineers, the most of any other profession. In itemized donations, 184 came from Indiana, totaling $176,563. Eight donors in Washington, D.C. gave a total of $27,719.

CHART: Contributions to the Indiana Democratic Congressional Victory Committee have dramatically increased in 2006 as the election approaches, and expenditures have also increased accordingly...

...but by no means has the Committee spent down their bank account (yet) on the election, maintaining about $200,000 in the coffers throughout the year. Presumably the committee would spend every penny they have before the election, with three competitive races...But at the beginning of 2005, immediately after the 2004 election, it still had $184,878 in the bank. If Brad Ellsworth, Baron Hill, or Joe Donnelly lose on November 7th, Indiana Democrats will wonder if more could have been done to win toss-up races in the most favorable environment for Democrats in years; and if $200k is still sitting in the bank, they'd be right.

Indiana House Democrats are hoping to link their Republican opponents to Governor Mitch Daniels:

There's no doubt that Daniels has irked many people through some of his initiatives.

Statewide daylight-saving time has been an emotional and divisive issue in Indiana for years — a reason that numerous attempts to pass it failed over three decades. Daniels said it would eliminate confusion and improve commerce, and he twisted enough Republican arms to get it done.
...
All House Democrats voted against the bill that led to a 75-year lease of the toll road in northern Indiana for $3.8 billion. Daniels says the money will help fund hundreds of highway projects, but Democrats said it was a bad financial deal and argued that a major state asset should not be run by a foreign entity.
...
Whether the strategy works remains to be seen. Legislative races often boil down to personalities and local issues, McCann noted. But it's possible Daniels could hurt some Republicans.

He has certainly turned off Dale Shake of Washington, Ind., who said he was a lifelong Republican who voted for Daniels in 2004. He said he received a poll call that asked him to rate the governor's performance between one and five.

"I came back and said, 'Do you have anything below that one?"' said Shake, 65. He said he was upset about the northern Indiana toll road lease — even though he lives in Daviess County in southwest Indiana — and the time switch.

He said he had known and liked Crooks' Republican opponent, Ron Arnold, for years. But because of Daniels, he's going to vote for Crooks.

Daniels said Democrats were misrepresenting his record and making some claims that were outright false.

Daniels touted his record, saying a budget deficit he blamed on Democrats had been erased; many inefficiencies and wrongdoing in state government had been eliminated; and a huge transportation funding gap had been filled by money from the toll road lease.

"Indiana was sitting still. I thought that was a mistake so we've acted," he said.

Republican House Speaker Brian Bosma said it is "a concern to us when the governor's numbers are not what he wants and the president's numbers are not what we want, but both are great leaders nonetheless."

"But this election is not about that," he said. "It's about who can lead at the local level, and the Republicans out there are way ahead in that regard," he said.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-House at 9/25/2006 03:55:00 PM

The South Bend Tribune is running a series of issue-based articles to help voters decide between Chocola and Donnelly. In today's, "candidates share ideas on reining in debt, corralling spending."

Q: Do you regard reduction of the national debt as necessary to the financial health of the nation? If so, what steps should the government take to reduce the debt? If not, why not?

Chocola: Yes, reducing the debt is a very important thing to do and is something I've focused on. The two ways to get a deficit are to spend too much or tax too little. I don't think the people in the 2nd District feel like they are taxed too little, but I do think that we spend too much. We need to prioritize our spending better.

One of the tools to pay down the national debt that I have worked on is the Family Budget Protection Act, which gets to the root of the problem. I am a co-sponsor of the Balanced Budget Amendment. I have also introduced the Truth in Accounting Act, which requires government to state its unfunded liabilities. In order to solve problems, you have to define problems. We need more accountability and transparency in these matters.

Donnelly: Reduction of the debt is critical to the financial security of this nation and it is also critical to the national security of this nation. Much of the debt we run up each year is bought up by China, which does not have our best interests at heart. China is an adversary and it is extraordinarily dangerous for us to be financing our debt this way. It's dangerous for us to put our future in the hands of foreign countries. That's not the American way. We need to reduce the debt, have a balanced budget and go back to the times of surplus that we had in the late 1990s.

Q: How long will it take to erase an $8.5 trillion debt, and is that even a realistic possibility?

Donnelly: It is a realistic possibility with the right policies. In 2000, it was projected we would run a $5 trillion surplus over the next 10 years. The goal was that by 2010 we would have been at about a zero balance. Instead, we have run trillions of dollars in debt. My best estimate is that it will take well over a decade to try and repair this.

Chocola: I think it has to be realistic. It's up to future congresses. How long it takes depends on policies that Congress enacts. This is not just on the spending side, it's also on the

revenue side. One way to erase the debt is to have pro-growth tax policy like the 2003 tax relief bills that I voted for.

Since then, we've created 5.7 million new jobs, and unemployment is now at 4.7 percent. It was over 6 percent, I think, when the tax relief bills were passed. We've had something like 18 quarters in a row of GDP growth. Federal tax receipts went up 15 percent last year, the largest increase in over 20 years. They're up almost 12 percent this year. The combination of budget process reform, better spending decisions and pro-growth tax policy, that's how we're going to get rid of the deficit. You can't answer the question of when until you know what those policies are.

Q: Do you support making permanent the tax cuts previously enacted by Congress? Why or why not?

Chocola: Yes, I do, because they have clearly served as a foundation for economic growth. If you drew a graph from the day that the 2003 tax relief bills became law, job creation has gone straight up, federal revenues have gone straight up and economic growth has gone straight up.

Economic statistics don't help the person without a job, but a growing economy does.

That pro-growth tax policy has helped serve as an economic stimulant. And anyone who does not support it supports a tax increase. If you aren't willing to keep the rates where they are, they will go up.

Donnelly: I support making all the tax cuts permanent immediately, except for the top 1 percent of wage earners. For the top 1 percent, I support those tax cuts as well, as long as the budget is balanced. Until that time, we can't afford to lose that revenue stream. It's politically popular and easier to push through that tax cut as well, but my job as congressman would not be to do what's politically popular, but to do what's right for the people of our district.

Q: Is it possible for the federal government to end deficit spending and balance its budget each year?

Donnelly: It is absolutely possible. What has been forgotten in so many of the claims we hear today is that the Republicans have been in charge of the White House, the Senate and the U.S. House the last six years and we have seen the biggest deficits in history and the biggest spending sprees in history.

My Republican friends and independent friends know as well as I do that no responsibility was shown over those years. We need pay-as-you-go policies and independent representatives in Washington to keep the lobbyists out of the room and to keep spending in line.

Chocola: Yes, it's possible. The balanced budget amendment I co-sponsored would create a constitutional amendment that would require a balanced budget each year. It does have exceptions, such as in times of war. It wasn't that long ago that we did have a balanced budget, so it can happen. Before 9/11, there were two or three years when there was actually a surplus. When I ran in 2000, there was a surplus.

Q: Do you support changes in the U.S. tax code to simplify or replace the income tax? If so, what is your approach?

Chocola: I do support fundamental tax reform. I think it should result in a fair and flatter tax code. There's lots of good ideas that deserve debate. The two big ones are a national sales tax and a flat tax. The bottom line is it should be a simpler and flatter approach.

I support fundamental tax reform based on three principles. It should be pro-growth, it should be simpler, and it should be fair. The ideas deserve a debate to get the best result.

Donnelly: I support simplification of our tax system as long as it does not disproportionately fall on middle-class families. I also want to make sure in the process we protect important deductions, such as the mortgage deduction, which is a cornerstone of our communities. It encourages home ownership and it encourages so many of the things that make America better.

I think that a sales tax is regressive and disproportionately hurts middle-class and working families. My goal would be to take the present tax code and work on making it much simpler.

Q: What is the best way to reduce the nation's trade imbalance with China, Japan and other countries?

Donnelly: Fair trade laws. Right now, we're running over a $200 billion trade deficit with China. That's just for a year. China undervalues their currency, has no environmental standards for their companies, steals intellectual property, pays extraordinarily low wages and subsidizes companies throughout their country.

All of this is done through most-favored-nation status in the World Trade Organization. Right now, in Congress, there is talk about imposing a tariff of up to 27 percent on Chinese products simply to try and reduce the currency manipulation. I would support revoking China's most-favored-nation trading status until they get serious about playing fair.

Chocola: When you have a pro-growth, fairer and simpler tax code, you make U.S. companies more competitive. We should have a tax policy that results in companies wanting to locate here and grow here.

Ireland revamped its tax code, and their manufacturing base has grown dramatically. We live in a global marketplace where competitiveness equals jobs. As companies are examining where they want to locate around the world, we can't put U.S. companies at a disadvantage from a tax policy standpoint. Right now we have the highest corporate tax rate in the industrial world, so we are putting U.S. companies automatically at a disadvantage.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/25/2006 03:38:00 PM

Attorney General Steve Carter filed a lawsuit against a Democratic group that has been making automated phone calls in Indiana:

The newest lawsuit, filed today in a Harrison County court, is against American Family Voices, a Democratic-leaning group based in Washington.
Carter earlier filed a lawsuit against Economic Freedom Fund, a California-based group funded by Texas Republican Bob Perry. In response, the vendor used by the Economic Freedom Fund, the Virginia-based FreeEats.com, has filed a lawsuit in federal court against Carter, claiming Indiana's law barring the automated calls is an unconstitutional restraint on interstate commerce.

American Family Voices had no immediate comment on the lawsuit.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/25/2006 03:30:00 PM

Results from the Courier-Press's ISU poll show that voters in IN-08 say an increase in the minimum wage is important to them:

The poll showed the issue of the minimum wage, however, was of greatest importance to those who said they would favor Democratic candidate Ellsworth on Nov. 7. The poll showed 81 percent of those registered voters ranking it either very important or important, compared to 58 percent for Hostettler, the Republican who has been elected six times.
...
Hostettler's opposition to the minimum wage has been consistent. He said during his first campaign that there should be no minimum wage at all. In both of the last two elections, he has said a higher minimum wage could drive jobs overseas.

Ellsworth said, "They haven't had a raise in almost 10 years; $5.15 is not what it used to be. I think we can do better than that, and I don't think it's going to drive jobs overseas."

The Courier & Press poll also asked voters to rank the importance of a candidate's views on "protecting American jobs from being sent overseas."

That question ranked as the highest among the 20 issue questions asked of voters. Of the respondents, 86.2 ranked it as very important or important. Ellsworth's likely voters, however, ranked it even higher at 90 percent, compared to 81 percent for Hostettler.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/25/2006 03:32:00 PM

From the Indianapolis Star:

Four years ago, Brizzi and his Democratic challenger spent about $1 million. The 1994 race was expensive, but even adjusted for inflation, the $900,000 spent that year won't keep pace with what political leaders expect Brizzi and Kennedy to spend in 2006.

In early September, spokesmen for each campaign said Kennedy had raised about $950,000 and Brizzi had amassed nearly $1.8 million.

Durham also has been Brizzi's top contributor since early 2005. The owner of Obsidian Enterprises, an Indianapolis holding company that owns and invests in several companies, has given $108,481.91. He said he is helping a close friend he thinks has done a good job in office.

Updated campaign finance records provided to The Indianapolis Star last week by both campaigns show Brizzi's second-ranking contributor, the Indianapolis law firm Baker and Daniels, has given $35,000.

Kennedy, Indianapolis' former deputy mayor, has big-ticket donors, too. The United Auto Workers -- including a political action committee and several affiliates across the state -- gave Kennedy $95,000. Bren Simon, an active Hoosier Democrat and the wife of mall developer Mel Simon, has given Kennedy $25,000.

The campaigns have provided updated lists of contributions through mid-August since the last state finance reports were due in April. Neither campaign, however, will say how much it has raised since mid-August until it files new finance reports in October.

Kennedy's new list of contributions showed nearly $253,000 raised from April through mid-August. Brizzi raised $353,000 in the same period.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 9/25/2006 06:13:00 AM

Carl Brizzi says the Marion County Democratic Party is all wrong when it claimed this week that Brizzi's office had been paying Brian Bosma's lawfirm without a contract:

In a news release headlined "Carl Brizzi takes care of his friends," Terry Burns, the party's executive director, blasted Brizzi for paying a politically connected law firm without a contract. More than $60,000 was paid from 2003 to 2005 to Kroger, Gardis and Regas, a firm that includes Indiana House Speaker Brian C. Bosma, R-Indianapolis.

The Democrats, who called for an independent audit of the office's finances, got the information from a public records request.

But Brizzi, a Republican running for re-election against Democrat Melina Kennedy, said they asked for the wrong information.

The Democrats requested any written agreements with the firm. The prosecutor's office replied that it "has no contract or agreement or letter of engagement with this law firm."

Not that it never did.

"We took it to mean current contracts," Brizzi said. His office had a written agreement for the firm to provide guardianship work but terminated it last year, he said. The office hires a handful of outside law firms for some work, and Brizzi said Bosma's firm had worked with the prosecutor's office for 10 years.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 9/24/2006 12:04:00 PM

Watch Video

Baron Hill is using his basketball fame to his advantage, according to Chris Cillizza and Jim VanDeHei of the Washington Post. The traveled to IN-09 in their fourth day of the WaPo's River Ramble series, which is profiling competitive CDs near the Ohio River.

First from VanDeHei's blog dispatch:

The Hill strategy is to emphasize his faith and family values, and talk basketball as often as possible to show his distinctly Indiana upbringing. He was a star at Seymor High School and remains a well-known part of Hoosier basketball lore. It might just work. Hill's polling shows him leading by about five points, which squares with public polling in the district.

The Republican plan is two-fold: Question Hill's social conservatism and accuse him of voting against tax cuts, which he did. Hill voted for a number of tax cuts too, but that is not the message voters are hearing in the latest ad by the National Republican Congressional Committee.

And from the report in today's WaPo:

Trying to unseat Rep. Michael E. Sodrel (R), he does not hesitate to invoke his basketball credentials to prove his down-home bona fides. Hill still holds the school record for most points scored (1,419) and was inducted into the Indiana Basketball Hall of Fame in 2000 alongside a "hick from French Lick" named Larry Bird.
...
Sodrel said basketball was a political asset for Hill -- before the Democrat went to Congress for six years. Sodrel said his opponent's votes against bans on same-sex marriage and flag burning are far more important to voters. "Basketball can't overcome that," he said. "He is out of sync with voters." Still, Sodrel said polls showing him slightly behind at this point are probably accurate.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/24/2006 11:41:00 AM

Mike Sodrel has a fairly extreme view of abortion: no exception for rape victims.

Sodrel opposes abortion in almost all situations — except when the life of the mother is at risk.

Otherwise, "I don't think abortion ought to be a choice," he said. "People say it's the woman's body. But I think there's a distinction between a mother and baby. The DNA is different from child to mother. It's two people, and one is on life support."

Sodrel said he doesn't understand "why any rational person would vote against banning the practice."

He doesn't support an exception for women who have been raped because he believes it would be unmanageable. Would a rape allegation be enough to warrant an abortion? Would a man have to be convicted of rape for the woman to be granted the procedure?
...
Sodrel voted against a bill Congress passed earlier this year that would have lifted the ban on federal funding for such research if the cells were collected from embryos created as part of in-vitro fertilization procedures.

Translation: on embryos that would have been thrown away anyway, Sodrel would rather them not be used for life-saving and revolutionary scientific research.

"By saying these embryos can't be used for stem cell research, then you're saying in-vitro fertilization should be banned because embryos are destroyed in that procedure, too," Hill said. "We ought to be allowing their use for medical research, because they will be otherwise discarded."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/24/2006 11:33:00 AM

The Courier Press toots their own horn about their new poll:

Through daily reports in the week to come, the news staff of the Courier & Press will discuss the mood of the electorate in the 8th District, based on information gathered from the polling process. The pollsters asked participants whether the candidates' positions on a wide range of topics are important to them. Such topics included education, family values, the federal budget, foreign policy, immigration, terrorism, various constitutional issues, stem cell research, minimum wage and several more.

At the conclusion of the news reports, we believe, you will find that people tend to vote their values and their interests more than they vote any single issue or a political party.

That's all we can tell you for now, other than that we are extremely proud of this project. It is no "push-poll"-type exercise in which callers attempt to persuade potential voters for a specific candidate under the guise of impartial polling.

It is a professionally done, impartial poll designed to tell us about the race between Hostettler and Ellsworth, and to tell us what is on the mind of 8th District voters today.

It is recommended reading.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/24/2006 11:30:00 AM

A poll taken by Indiana State University and the Evansville Courier Press shows Democrat Brad Ellsworth besting incumbent John Hostettler by 15 points. The poll was of 603 registered voters; the MoE is +/- 4%. The NRCC has legitimate qualms about the scientific credibility of the poll, though, which are spelled out below.

Ellsworth - 47.4%
Hostettler - 31.8%
Undecided - 16.6%
No Answer - 4.1%

The Courier Press:

"The conventional wisdom is that a high percentage of undecided is bad news for the incumbent," he said.

University of Evansville political scientist Robert L. Dion said he senses that Hostettler is behind at this point, but not 15 points behind.

The undecided voters probably are "disappointed conservatives" hesitating to commit to Hostettler again because they are unhappy about the conduct of the Iraq war or the economy, Dion said.
...
Steiger's telephone interviewers asked self-described undecided voters if they could check back with them within two weeks after an Oct. 4 debate in Vincennes, he said, but 42 percent said no.

"I consider that a refusal to say who they're for," he said. "We'll call back the remaining 58 percent. That will be really interesting, to see how the undecideds are breaking."

Ed Patru, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, questioned the poll's legitimacy.

"The methodology of the poll is flawed," Patru said in a written statement.

"The poll tests registered voters instead of likely voters, and it was conducted over several weeks, so it's pretty difficult to claim that the survey provides an accurate snapshot of voter sentiment.
...
Dion said a weakness of ISU's poll is that it was conducted over a period of 15 days - a period, he said, that coincides with an uptick of support for Republicans nationally.

"Fifteen days, that's a long time," he said. "People who study public opinion say a good poll is a snapshot of a given moment in time. But over the last couple of weeks gas prices have been plummeting, and there's been the fifth anniversary of (the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks)."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/24/2006 11:00:00 AM

The DCCC ad running in IN-09 accusing Mike Sodrel of supporting Social Security privatization will not be pulled from stations, despite Sodrel's calls that it be taken down:

WDRB-TV station manager Bill Lamb reviewed the ad, Savage's arguments and a response from the Democratic committee. He said he doesn't "like to be judge and jury," although he's willing to pull an inaccurate ad. But in this case, the decision wasn't difficult.

"Although the ad may be a distortion of Mike Sodrel's position or a bastardization, they did not make their case," Lamb said. "I don't think there is enough evidence that is at all sufficient to pull this ad."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/24/2006 10:55:00 AM

Finally: a company has sued the state of Indiana in hopes of overturning the ridiculous law that bans automated political calls. Forgetting the fact that it's the Swift Boaties taking the action, the state is infringing on political speech, and it's about time someone put it to an end.

The company FreeEats.com filed a lawsuit Thursday in federal court in Indianapolis. The company wants the Indiana attorney general to stop enforcing a state law that prohibits automated political calls unless recipients agree in advance to accept them.

Earlier this month, the state sued a California-based group called the Economic Freedom Fund to force it to stop making automated calls attacking Democratic congressional candidate Baron Hill. Hill is running against Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel in the closely watched 9th District.

FreeEats.com said in its lawsuit that it made those calls on behalf of the Economic Freedom Fund.

The Herndon, Va.-based FreeEats.com claims that the state law violates free speech rights under both the United States and Indiana constitutions. The company also argues that the ban is an unconstitutional restraint on interstate commerce.
...
Carter's office was reviewing the FreeEats.com lawsuit. He said Friday that the prerecorded calls are illegal and that he would not back down from enforcing the law.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/23/2006 10:14:00 AM

Video - WMV

The Indiana Week in Review panel seems to think that the IN-02 race will tighten once Chocola's ads "better penetrate" the district. Could be, but it's going to be tough.

Chocola's no fool. Fully aware that he had a huge CoH advantage over Donnelly, he threw his best line of attack out early, hoping to define Donnelly, lower Democratic hopes of a takeover, and dissuade the DCCC from dumping cash into the race...Make it another 2004 where national Dems are weary and Donnelly's so broke that he can hardly go on television, and he would have locked up another election.

Maybe he'll have another trick up his sleeve, but the fact that Chocola pivoted from hard-hitting personal negatives to, of all things, immigration, shows just how weakened the Republican incumbent's strategy is. Worse for Chocola, his property tax attacks---which he went full throttle with for three weeks, paying to reach a saturation point of the average person being exposed to the ad on ten separate occassions---didn't stick. This week's WSBT/South Bend Tribune/Research 2000 poll showed that 71% of repondents said Donnelly's late taxes didn't make them less likely to vote for him.

Chocola might have exhausted so much cash, in fact, that it prompted the NRCC to step into a race that they had previously vowed to sit out, citing Chocola's ability to self-finance. But today they paid $74,908 to run ads like this one opposing Joe Donnelly.

What might have stuck with voters: the impression that Chocola is a negative, personal, and dirty campaigner. That's going to make all of his other future lines of attacks that much less credible.

Chocola's used up his strongest arguments, and possibly a huge chunk of his cash. All to no avail. It'll be hard to dig out of the hole he's in now.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/22/2006 08:37:00 PM

The NRCC paid Strategic Media Services $152,415 today to place ads opposing Brad Ellsworth.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/22/2006 08:06:00 PM

The NRCC paid two payments, on of $505 and the other of $7,980, today to Anthem Media Inc. to produce an ad opposing Baron Hill.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/22/2006 08:02:00 PM

Despite previously vowing to sit out IN-02, the NRCC's apparently in this one for the long haul: today they paid Strategic Media Services $74,908 to place ads opposing Joe Donnelly.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/22/2006 08:04:00 PM

Watch Video

The Washington Post's excellent "Ohio River Ramble" series follows up on IN-08 today with a visit to Hostettler campaign headquarters, where they interviewed Karen Hammonds, Hostettler's office manager-slash-sister. Chris Cillizza and Jim VanDeHei also weighed in on the race on the radio.

In their report from the district in the paper today, the duo sum up the race thusly:

The political environment in Indiana is not doing Hostettler any favors, either. The GOP brand here has been badly scuffed, as much by local controversies as by furor surrounding President Bush and the Iraq war. Gov. Mitchell E. Daniels Jr., a Republican, infuriated many people by pushing to privatize the state's toll roads -- and turn them over to two foreign companies.

In past years, Hostettler has been helped by the opposition. Although Democrats have long regarded him as vulnerable, the party has never found the right person to carry the fight. The latest to try was Jon Jennings, a former scout for the Boston Celtics, who raised $1.5 million only to watch as Hostettler piled up his largest reelection margin.

Ellsworth, who has served as sheriff of the district's largest county since 1998, may be better positioned to exploit Hostettler's vulnerabilities. Democrats hope his social views -- he is opposed to abortion rights and same-sex marriage -- will insulate him from Republican attacks on wedge issues that have proven effective before. "People appreciate my conservative values," Ellsworth said.

Still, Ed Feigenbaum, editor of Indiana Legislative Insight, a political tipsheet, warns not to underestimate Hostettler's friends-and-family turnout operation. "There is a lot more behind the curtain than there appears," he said.

...Also: the Courier-Press reports on the scrubbing of the Vanderburgh County voter rolls:

About 4,000 registered voters in Vanderburgh County may be declared "inactive" if they don't vote Nov. 7, meaning they would be removed from voter rolls if they don't cast ballots by 2008.

Another 922 voters already have been removed from the rolls because they are deceased.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/22/2006 03:46:00 PM

The National Journal's House Race Hotline (subscription only) sums up political activity in Indiana:

Indiana Legislative Insight writes, "Polling shows that Hoosiers, even in a red state, are not happy with the President" and seem to "fall in line" with prevailing national opinion on the war. Where Hoosiers "distinguish themselves" is in the "economic arena." The "collapse" of the American automobile industry has hit IN hard, and will "continue to plague the state through the election." The auto manufacturing news "will not improve" before the election, and we're "more likely to see more major layoffs than even minor hiring binges in the next six weeks." Manufacturing employees "whose short-term futures" are uncertain "will be prone to take their frustrations out on incumbents who have not helped them... if they even show up at the polls."

Dems have tried to tar the 3 vulnerable GOP incumbents with the "Bush brush" and have "been successful thus far" against Rep. Chris Chocola (R-IN 02) and Mike Sodrel (R-IN 09). But "being a few bubbles off the GOP plumb" has enabled Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN 08) to "largely escape being tarnished with that brush."

The "time-tested" Hostettler grassroots volunteer network is "the best in the state, bar none." Dems are "well-organized" on the ground in IN 02, but GOPers "get the edge above that level there." And in IN 09, the candidates seem "equally matched." And so much money will pour into these three contests from both sides "that any cash edge for any individual candidate simply won't matter."

What of the local issues? They "seem to carry a fair amount of weight" in IN 02 and IN 08, but less in IN 09.

* IN 02: Both candidates have "faced tax payment issues, but voters seem to be ignoring these attacks. But voters here "remain highly emotional about the Toll Road lease deal and Daylight Savings Time, and many "are prepared to take out their frustration" on Rep. Chocola, who "has no connection to either concern." Yet he "finds himself facing (spontaneous) questions about these two "vexing matters at virtually every public forum." '04 nominee Joe Donnelly (D) isn't a "catalyst," but an alternative here.

* IN 08: Hostettler has "managed to remain just independent enough" to "persuade folks back home" he's "not responsible for the problems in D.C. His detention on firearms charges last year "made no local impression" and Dem atttempts to "bash him over local tornado response and aid" have not seemed to gain much traction. His "outspokenness on religious freedom" seem to endear him to local voters, and even Vanderburgh Co. Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) has tried to outflank him on the right on some issues. While Ellsworth is a Dem "who is decidedly not crazy" and "can legally carry a gun in the district"

* IN 09: Sodrel has "benefited" from the assistance of his colleagues and the WH. He has led a "procession" of congressional appropriators through the CD, leading to "well-publicized grants" for CD projects. The DCCC has placed their "full faith and credit behind Hill, and he's trying to remind voters "that he was a moderating influence in Congress when he served" (9/22).

Mike Sodrel thinks that this YouTube video proves Baron Hill supports privatizing Social Security. But in the clip, Hill only supported the government investing portions of the fund, a practice that it already does. The quote essentially restated how the system already works: "You mean the government doing the investing? I like your idea. I think you are on to something now. Well, I used to work with Merrill Lynch before I went to Congress. They've got into all kinds of troubles now, but back when I used to work for them they were an honest company. But one of the things I did was this kind of investing for corporations. It's called a defined benefit program and that's what really Social Security is."

Nonetheless, Sodrel released this statement:

But Sodrel does not support privatizing Social Security. Nowhere in the article cited by the ad does it note Sodrel's support for privatization. What the Courier-Journal article does say is that Sodrel does not "support any of the specific proposals that have been made for overhauling the Social Security system." (Courier-Journal, 3/29/05)

It's actually Baron Hill who has gone on the record in favor of privatizing Social Security. The DCCC ad says Hill will "oppose any plan that privatizes Social Security," but in 2002, Baron Hill told a group of seniors attending a forum on Social Security that he was for investing Social Security funds in the stock market, because he had worked as a stockbroker for Merrill Lynch and done the same kind of investing for corporations.

The DCCC ad, according to campaign manager Cam Savage, "intentionally and falsely accuses Mike Sodrel of supporting a hypothetical plan he has never supported."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/22/2006 03:11:00 PM

The NRCC is up with a new ad rebuting Ellsworth's "Moving Indiana Forward." Script:

ANNCR: (on screen: clip from Ellsworth ad where he says election "isn't about Nancy Pelosi) Sorry, Brad. That's exactly what it's about. If Ellsworth is elected, he could put liberal Democrats in charge of Congress. Pelosi and congressional Democrats voted against reauthorizing the Patriot Act. They opposed additional funding for border protection. They favor increasing taxes. Does Ellsworth want them to run Congress? And how can he possibly stop their liberal agenda?

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/22/2006 02:29:00 PM

The DCCC today paid $11,795 to AKP Message & Media for ad production opposing John Hostettler.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/21/2006 07:12:00 PM

National Journal reports:

A debate in New Albany was cancelled "citing problems securing a date and a location agreeable to the candidates." Eric Schansberg (Lib) and Baron Hill (D) "signed a debate agreement for the two-subject, 60-minute debate," 10/1 but Rep. Mike Sodrel's manager Cam Savage "said that Sodrel might have to be in" DC. Hill's campaign "said there were no scheduled votes" for 10/1 or 10/2 and Hill advisor Michael O'Connor: the Sodrel campaign "obviously started getting weak-kneed about the debate."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/21/2006 05:55:00 PM

Watch Video

The Washington Post visited Evansville today as part of the "Ohio River Ramble" series. Check it out; good stuff. Chris Cillizza and Jim VandeHei will dispatch from IN-09 two days from now.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/21/2006 05:30:00 PM

An internal Ellsworth poll shows the Democratic challenger up 51-34%, according to the Fix.

The poll was taken Sept. 18-19 of 401 LVs, by Garin Hart Yang Research Group, who found Ellsworth up by only four points in June.

He just sent an e-mail out to supporters clarifying his position on gay marriage:

Many of you know me personally, and you know that I am a family man with deep religious convictions. Much has been said by my opponent, Mike Sodrel, about my beliefs concerning gay marriage, and I'm here to set the record straight.

Simply put, I believe that marriage is sacred and is a right only between a man and a woman. The people of the 9th District know that I am a man of my word, and they know that I will work to return strong Hoosier family values to Washington---values such as honesty, integrity, and faith.

The people of Indiana should not be surprised that they can't trust Mike Sodrel to live up to his word. Shortly after signing the Clean Campaign Pledge, Mike Sodrel broke the promise he made to the Monroe County religious leaders to run a clean, positive campaign. If Mike Sodrel can't be honest with ministers, how can we expect him to be honest with the people of the 9th District about anything?

I know that the people of Indiana are disappointed with the folks in Washington, and they want a change. The House of Representatives should be a place of honor and integrity. In Congress, I will represent your interests and work for your needs. I understand the importance of keeping the public's trust, and I'll work to bring back the strong values that our government desperately needs.

I encourage you to visit my website at www.baron2006.com, and thank you for your support.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/21/2006 05:17:00 PM

The Herald-Times (subscription only) reports on a high school forum that Baron Hill attended:

But with just Hill and Sink-Burris on the stage, the event was less a debate than an exchange of ideas and responses to questions.

Asked about Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court decision that legalized abortion, Hill said he supports the decision but believes government should provide counseling and resources to prevent pregnancies and reduce the number of abortions.

Sink-Burris said Schansberg doesn't like abortions or regulation. "Libertarians believe persuasion, not force, is the way to change social values," she said.

Hill said he opposes same-sex marriage but doesn't think the Constitution should be amended to ban it. Sink-Burris said Schansberg has changed his position since a Sept. 30 debate, and he now would vote against the constitutional amendment.

Sink-Burris said same-sex marriage was "a shiny object used to distract voters from more important issues."

Hill told how, as a member of Congress in 2003, he believed he was lied to in order to win his vote for the war in Iraq. He said he and 35 other moderate Democrats were called to the Pentagon, where Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and others showed them classified intelligence that appeared to show Saddam Hussein was developing nuclear weapons and had the capacity to attack the U.S.

Later, he said, an Air Force official told him the information shouldn't have been used in that way. And it turned out to be wrong.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/21/2006 03:50:00 PM

Baron Hill's campaign released an ad 9/13 called "Ministers," produced by McMahon, Squier & Associates. Script:

I'm Baron Hill, and I approved this message because it's time to set the record straight." ANNCR: "What kind of values does someone have who breaks their word to a minister? Mike Sodrel signed this pledge to a group of ministers to run a clean campaign. In this attack ad, Sodrel broke his word. The minister who wrote the pledge said, 'Sodrel's ad constitutes a negative, personal attack that violates the pledge.' If Mike Sodrel won't tell the truth to a group of ministers, how can we believe anything Mike Sodrel says about anything?

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/21/2006 03:42:00 PM

Carl Brizzi's campaign will unveil a new ad today focusing on meth...

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 9/21/2006 09:09:00 AM

The DCCC released an ad several days ago attacking John Hostettler for voting against disaster relief on multiple occasions...I've been trying to get a copy for some time now (to no avail), so if you've got one, send it my way.

The Courier-Press does their fact-check routine on the ad, here.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/21/2006 07:19:00 AM

The IndyStar opines about Eric Dickerson's 1991 domestic violence incident:

Dickerson, in an hourlong meeting Wednesday with The Star's Editorial Board, adamantly denied that he had beaten his wife or bitten his daughter. He asserts that the arresting officers misunderstood what they saw and heard. He also argues that many innocent people have been accused and even convicted of crimes they did not commit.

What should voters make of this?

Dickerson's claims that the arresting officers grossly misreported specific details of the incident strain credibility. Officer King, for instance, signed a statement on Aug. 24, 1991, that he had observed "bodily injury to Paula H. Dickerson, specifically (to) her neck/throat, arms, legs, and ribs.''

A second statement signed by King asserts that Dickerson had bitten his daughter on her right forearm. Dickerson argues that if he had abused his daughter, then she and his other children should have been removed from their home. By no means, however, is an overloaded child protection system always that responsive.

It's true that Dickerson was not convicted of the charges. Nor is there evidence that he has been accused of crimes before or since. However, domestic violence cases are difficult to prosecute precisely because alleged victims often refuse to testify.

It's unfortunate that the accusations were brought to light by Rep. Carson, an incumbent member of Congress who prefaced her comments about Dickerson by saying she didn't want to "call her opponent names.''

Voters in the 7th District have been left with a mess less than two months before Election Day. They will have to decide whether a 15-year-old incident is relevant and if Dickerson's defense is believable. They also will have to determine whether Carson has resorted to the type of "below-the-belt'' campaigning she says she abhors.

The DCCC paid Great American Media $36,814 for a media buy to oppose Mike Sodrel, as well as another $36,814 for a media buy to support Baron Hill.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/21/2006 07:11:00 AM

The DCCC paid Great American Media yesterday $113,901 for a media buy opposing John Hostettler.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/21/2006 07:10:00 AM

The DCCC paid Great American Media $79,889 yesterday for a media buy in IN-02 to oppose Chris Chocola.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/21/2006 07:07:00 AM

The Indiana Democratic Party sent out this news release, making sure everyone knows that Indiana is still losing jobs:

Indiana lost 2,200 jobs in August, according to data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The loss was the fifth-highest in the nation last month.

Last week, the Indiana Department of Workforce Development issued a news release about the numbers stating that employment "declined slightly" in August.

"It goes to show how out of touch this Governor and his administration are when they don't think losing 2,000 jobs is a big deal," said Indiana Democratic Party Chair Dan Parker. "I'm guessing it was more than a slight decline for the Hoosiers who no longer have jobs."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-House at 9/21/2006 07:04:00 AM

The Marion County Republican Party is running a television ad in Indianapolis which blames Mayor Bart Peterson for the uptick in crime... I'm working on getting a copy.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 9/21/2006 07:02:00 AM

Video - WMV

I haven't paid any attention to Eric Dickerson's domestic violence arrest in 1991 (hey, I'm covering competitive elections here), but for those interested, WTHR filed a report about the incident this evening.

Tom Reynolds, the New York Republican that heads up the NRCC, briefed reporters yesterday on competitive House races across the country...What he said about Indiana:

" ... Both parties are watching that state closely. ... I think we've got some experienced incumbents in there, but by no means are these races put away yet.

"Chocola is working hard -- [he] has a lot of independent expenditures [being run] against him ... But he's got a 3-1 fundraising advantage to his opponent there. ...

"When you look at Hostettler, many of us have looked in amazement at how John Hostettler campaigns. But he's always connected with his conservative base there. We have been in there for a bit now [running independent expenditures].

"Sodrel is doing very well. ... He's doing everything you could ask him to do."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02, IN-08, IN-09 at 9/20/2006 05:21:00 PM

Watch Video

Carl Brizzi wanted to "have fun" by "highlighting when inexperience takes over," so his campaign hired Carmel-based MediaSauce to produce a cartoon comparing Melina Kennedy's "inexperience" to a poor cosmetologist.

It is a bit interesting how Brizzi's camp is making a definite effort to be funny...

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 9/20/2006 04:23:00 PM

The Courier Press must be mighty proud of their invesigation of Ellsworth's "dirty money," cash came from clients of Jack Abramoff, was given to some Democratic lawmakers, who often then donated back to charity after learning it was tainted. But because they can't track whether or not it was indeed returned, some of that money might have then been filtered to Ellsworth, when some of those same Democratic lawmakers then contributed relatively small amounts to his campaign.

Ellsworth's campaign cited the House members' personal campaign committees, not any other political action committees controlled by them.

Using the same criteria, the Center for Responsive Politics and FEC records indicate Ellsworth also has accepted contributions from four House members with Abramoff money in their treasuries.

Ellsworth received $7,574 in contributions from Reps. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., Steny Hoyer, D-Md., Ed Pastor, D-Ariz., and Mike Thompson, D-Calif. Those four House members received $12,000 in contributions from Abramoff or his clients.
...
Hostettler issued a written statement Tuesday saying Ellsworth "will say and do anything to get elected, including indict his own guilty conscience."

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/20/2006 07:20:00 AM

Though this Hill article today leaves something to be desired, it does a fair job of summing up "The Pelosi Strategy," which the NRCC has been deploying in IN-08, and, since yesterday, in IN-02.

But national Republicans say recent polls in Indiana's 8th District show that their strategy of tying Ellsworth to Pelosi, Sen. Clinton (D-N.Y.) and the Democratic agenda is working.

And just days after Ellsworth's rebuttal, the NRCC went to the well again and launched another ad featuring photos of Pelosi and talking about the Democratic agenda.

The NRCC asserts the Pelosi ads have helped Rep. John Hostettler (R-Ind.) narrow the gap on Ellsworth.
...
Democrats say many people don't even know who Pelosi is -- a Newsweek poll several months ago showed 51 percent of people had never heard of her -- and point to the limited use of the strategy as proof that it doesn't work.
...
Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill said, "The voters of Indiana's 8th District know they're electing a representative who will be an independent voice for their best interests. These personal attacks just demonstrate how truly desperate the Republican Party has become."

A copy of the NRCC's San Fransisco mailer is here.

Though the WSBT/South Bend Tribune/Research 2000 poll only identified men and women as crosstabs, most of the breakdowns remain unpublished. IndianaOnMessage has them, exclusively:

	FAVORABLE	UNFAVORABLE	NO OPINION
Chris Chocola	47%	45%	8%
Joe Donnelly	48%	33%	19%
	DONNELLY	CHOCOLA	UNDECIDED
ALL	50%	42%	8%
MEN	46%	47%	7%
WOMEN	54%	37%	8%
QUESTION: How would you rate the performance of Chris Chocola as Congressman; excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?
	EXCELLENT	GOOD	FAIR	POOR	NOT SURE
ALL	4	42	43	5	6
MEN	6	45	41	5	3
WOMEN	2	39	45	5	9
Most Important Issue
	ALL	MEN	WOMEN
War in Iraq	20	15	25
Economy	13	12	14
War on terror	12	16	8
Taxes/spending	11	16	6
Immigration	7	11	3
Health care costs	7	5	9
Toll roads	6	6	6
Social security	6	4	8
Medicare	5	4	6
Time zone change	3	3	3
Education	3	2	4
Candidate qualities	3	2	4
Gas prices	2	2	2
Gay Marriage	1	1	1
Other/DK	1	1	1
Generally speaking, would you like to see more Democrats or Republicans elected to Congress this year?
	ALL	MEN	WOMEN
DEMOCRATS	51	47	55
REPUBLICANS	40	44	36
NOT SURE	9	9	9
How would you rate the performance of George W. Bush as President; excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?
	EXCELLENT	GOOD	FAIR	POOR	NOT SURE
ALL	5	36	48	10	1
MEN	7	40	43	9	1
WOMEN	3	52	53	11	1
How would you rate the performance of Mitch Daniels as Governor; excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?
	EXCELLENT	GOOD	FAIR	POOR	NOT SURE
ALL	5	38	44	10	3
MEN	6	42	40	10	2

...MoveOn.org's "Exploiting 9/11" ad, which was unveiled today, was apparently a national cable buy, not one that was made solely in the Second District. I regret the error.

...The DCCC today paid GMMB $4,900 to produce an ad in favor of Baron Hill, and another $4,900 to oppose Mike Sodrel. Previously, the DCCC had GMMB produce their "voicemail" radio spots. They paid Murphy Putnam Shorr & Partners $8,879 to produce a spot opposing Chris Chocola in IN-02.

...The NRCC began running "Dots" today in IN-02, even though they'd previously announced publicly that Chocola would be forced to fend for himself in his race against Joe Donnelly.

Brad Ellsworth is linking John Hostettler to Jack Abramoff, according to the Courier-Press:

In 2004, the Ellsworth statement said, Hostettler received $9,500 in contributions from campaign committees of eight of his Republican House colleagues.
Four of those congressmen accepted a total of $5,000 from Abramoff and his "cronies," Ellsworth's statement said.

"2004: Abramoff Money Flows Through Other Candidates to Hostettler," the statement said.

Ellsworth drew another connection from Abramoff to Hostettler: His statement said the National Republican Congressional Committee, which is expected to spend $1 million on paid media in Indiana's 8th district, "accepted over $450,000 from indicted Washington superlobbyist Jack Abramoff and his cronies."

Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said earlier this year that Abramoff's relationship with Republicans would be an issue in Democratic congressional campaigns.

Ellsworth's campaign statement said "the real miracle isn't how Hostettler manages to win tough elections while keeping his money clean; quite the contrary. It's that before this election no one's bothered to shine a light on Hostettler's true practices, and explain how dirty the money spent to re-elect Hostettler really is.

The Courier-Press is thrilled about the upcoming 8th CD debate:

The details of the debate format are yet to be announced, but this will be the closest voters in the 8th District have come to a real debate in years.

Two years ago the candidates answered questions together from callers on the radio. Four years ago they didn't do much of anything together.

But now comes word that incumbent Republican Rep. John Hostettler and Democratic challenger Brad Ellsworth will debate at 7 p.m. on Oct. 4 in the studios of WVUT (PBS) in Vincennes, Ind.

...

Debates don't always decide elections, but they do assist voters in learning far more about the candidates than from the type of attack ads that have marked the current campaign race for the 8th District congressional seat.

Which is more useful to a voter -- an advertisement that fudges the issues or the candidates standing side by side, answering questions in front of a live audience?

It's no contest.

...Another sign of Congressman Chocola's desperation: he's propsing five debates with Joe Donnelly. His lengthy proposal includes three South Bend television debates, a radio debate in Kokomo, and a live debate at a Rochester high school.

...Soon: exclusive crosstabs from the WSBT/South Bend Tribune/Research 2000 poll.

Chris Chocola's so desperate to prove that he's not a dead man walking that he actually released the results of an internal poll---which shows him up 45.5% to 40.5%.

But there are plenty of reasons to doubt the results: it was a partisan poll, conducted by a Republican firm, Mercury Public Affairs; it only surveyed 300 LVs; its high MoE is +/- 5.65 percent; it reported a high 13.9% undecided number, a figure that's nearly double the number of every other poll ever taken in the district this year.

Though Chocola was undoubtedly trying to reassure the Republicans whose turnout is critical if he wants re-election in November, today's South Bend Tribune article about his poll proved more about his weakness than his strength.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/19/2006 07:43:00 AM

The NRCC paid $7,980 to Anthem Media to produce an ad in opposition to Baron Hill on 9/15. The same day, they purchased $131,976 (with Crossroads Media) in air time, presumably to broadcast the same ad.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/18/2006 10:17:00 PM

The NRCC made two payments, one for $7,848 and the other for $1,500, to Stevens, Reed, Curcio, and Potholm to produce an ad in opposition to Brad Ellsworth...

Three days ago they spent $118,882 on a media buy, purchased by Strategic Media Services.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/18/2006 10:13:00 PM

The NRCC paid $6,580 to Marsh Copsey + Associates to produce an issue ad against Joe Donnelly in IN-02.

They spent $72,023 three days ago to buy air time, purchased by Strategic Media Services.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/18/2006 10:09:00 PM

WSTB commissioned a poll that shows Democrat Joe Donnelly's expanded his lead three points from their last poll (taken two months ago in July; Donnelly was up by five points) to a full eight points, just outside of the MoE (+/- 5%).

This week, when Chocola began running ads on Donnelly's support for what he characterized as an illegal immigration "amnesty" plan, it was the first sign that Chocola seems to have given up on what surely was his most damning charge to level against the Democrat: 15 late property tax payments...Now this new poll confirms what Chocola obviously concluded---71% of voters said that the delinquencies did not make them less likely to vote for Donnelly.

Simply put: it didn't stick.

The poll also shows bad numbers for the Governor, the President, and the war in Iraq.

Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland, polled 400 LVs in the Second Congressional District by telephone, Sept. 15-17.

I'm working to get crosstabs...

(Hat tip: Al)

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/18/2006 09:41:00 PM

Listen - WMA | Listen - MP3

Joe Donnelly visited Kokomo today for a forum at UAW Local #685 along with Secretary of State candidate Joe Pearson and AFL-CIO Indiana President Ken Zeller.

I snagged an interview with Donnelly, and asked him:

- about recent polling data

- whether Chris Chocola's taken his reelection for granted

- if "Millionaire Chocola," as Donnelly calls him in his television ads, is too wealthy for his working class district

- if his campaign can sustain their advertising pace and whether or not he was prematurely lured on air by negative ads

- whether or not he agrees with Bob Novak when he claimed that Donnelly's camp had made a strategic mistake by responding to Chocola's delinquent tax payment ads

- if voters actually support Donnelly or merely oppose Chocola, President Bush, and the Governor in the generally hostile environment towards Republicans

- why Donnelly's campaign is running television ads about delinquent taxes if Donnelly truly believes that the race "ought to be focusing" elsewhere


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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/18/2006 08:38:00 PM

Video - WMV

RTV6 clips from Steve Carter's press conference on robocalling.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/18/2006 09:15:00 PM

...though none on the format:

A date has been agreed upon by Congressman John Hostettler's Campaign and the Campaign of Sheriff Brad Ellsworth of Wednesday, October 4, 2006 at 7 pm CDT to be held in the studios of WVUT (PBS) in Vincennes.

The following television stations will be televising the debate live: WVUT, WNIN, WTIU, and WTWO. In addition the debate will be aired on the Public Radio stations in the above markets.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/18/2006 04:05:00 PM

Marion County Republicans are blaming Indianapolis's poor job growth between 2000-2005 on Melina Kennedy:

Last week, Democrat candidate for Marion County Prosecutor Melina Kennedy said "Just like in any business, government is the same. You have got to have performance be part of what we look at."[1] A review of Kennedy's performance as Director of Economic Development for the City of Indianapolis from June 2001-September 2004 and Deputy Mayor of Economic Development from September 2004-September 2005 reveals significantly poor results.

According to data released by CNN[2], when Melina Kennedy was in charge of economic development for the city, Indianapolis suffered from -1.37% job growth from 2000-2005.

"Kennedy continues to say that "results matter" but she was unable to produce positive results in her last job. When Kennedy was responsible for economic development, cities neighboring Indianapolis prospered while Indianapolis failed to produce positive job results," said Marion County Republican Party, Executive Director Mike Biberstine. "Her sole responsibility was to provide a positive economic climate so that Marion County residents could earn a decent living to provide for their families, but Kennedy failed to produce results."

Two cities surrounding Indianapolis saw job growth top 30% from 2000-2005. Fishers was ranked 15th in the nation in fastest job growth while Carmel was ranked 24th in the nation.

"We're seeing phenomenal job growth in cities just one county north of Indianapolis, yet when Melina Kennedy was responsible, Marion County experienced less job growth than our neighbors and less growth than Gary, Indiana" said Biberstine.

"The economy is a major factor in crime rates. We should not reward Melina Kennedy for results like this. We cannot afford to elect a Prosecutor who has zero experience prosecuting criminals and has negative results in her last job," said Biberstine.

Melina Kennedy has never filed a charge, never tried a case, and never put a criminal behind bars.

Someone doesn't know how to use commas...

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 9/18/2006 02:53:00 PM

Steve Carter's making good on his promise to crack down on automated calling, starting with a lawsuit he filed today against the shadowy Economic Freedom Fund, a group funded and with close ties to the Swift Boat Veterans:

Carter also is seeking a preliminary injunction against the California-based group, Economic Freedom Fund, which is financed by Bob J. Perry, a Texas homebuilder with close ties to White House adviser Karl Rove. Perry also bankrolled the Swift Boat attack ads against the war record of Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry in 2004.

Carter is holding a news conference at 2:15 p.m. today to discuss the legal action.

Carter, a Republican, began investigating the calls after receiving complaints about them from people who live in the 9th Congressional District in southeastern Indiana. Hill is running to represent the district, against Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Sorrel and Libertarian Eric Schonberg.

While political calls are exempt from Indiana's do-not-call law, they are not exempt from a 1988 law which bans prerecorded automated calls. A live person must first seek a person's permission before playing a recorded message.

I would imagine that the broadcast news outlets will have coverage on the evening news; I'll post it if they do.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-09 at 9/18/2006 02:43:00 PM

Jack Colwell had a perceptive column yesterday about the supposed "blind luck" Joe Donnelly got when, as many national publications have reported, Chris Chocola was caught "blindsided."

Among some of the Washington experts who analyze these things and the sources upon whom they depend, there is a perception, however, that it's close because Donnelly, so underfunded and easily defeated in his '04 race with Chocola, managed to sneak up on an overconfident Chocola this time.

...

Chocola wasn't overconfident. And his early fundraising efforts didn't show lack of serious effort. He had $1.5 million on hand at the time of the last campaign expense reports, and that was after a big TV buy to slap back quickly at the MoveOn.org commercials attacking him.

Nor did White House political guru Karl Rove take Chocola's re-election for granted. President Bush came to the district -- the first district in the nation in which he campaigned for a House member this year -- to raise $650,000 for Chocola in February.

Blindsided?

Certainly not. Chocola knew that Donnelly, with a better campaign organization this time and likely to get help that was denied before by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, could make a formidable challenge in what is shaping up as a Democratic year.

...

All of this is why the Chocola campaign is putting together what they expect to be the most technologically advanced, volunteer driven get-out-the-vote effort ever in Indiana.

Still, Chocola may lose. If he does, it won't be because he was blindsided. It won't be because Donnelly managed just out of blind luck to sneak up on an unprepared incumbent. Any belief otherwise is based on a misconception that is unfair to both candidates.

--
Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-02 at 9/18/2006 05:51:00 AM

The IndyStar compiled some campaign events for the upcoming week:

Monday
- United Senior Action and Indiana Alliance of Retired Americans congressional candidates forum, 10 a.m. to noon, North United Methodist Church, 3808 N. Meridian St.
- Red Mass, 6 p.m., St. John Catholic Church, 126 W. Georgia St. Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi, a Republican seeking re-election, is to speak during the annual Mass to honor and pray for justice system workers.
- U.S. Rep. Dan Burton's "Porkbuster's Golf," 1 p.m., Winding Ridge Golf Club, 5450 Bogey Drive, Lawrence. Information: (317) 546-5673.
- Indiana Election Commission, 3 p.m., Indiana Government Center South, teleconference media center, 402 W. Washington St.

Tuesday
- Indiana State Fraternal Order of Police, political action committee legislative night, 6 to 9 p.m., Indianapolis FOP Lodge 86, 1427 E. Washington St.

Wednesday
- Citizens Action Against Rising Crime rally, 11 a.m., Statehouse's east steps. Melina Kennedy, Democratic candidate for prosecutor, is to attend.

Thursday
- Ron Alting for State Senate dinner, 5:30 p.m., McGraws' Home, 2707 S. River Road, Lafayette. Information: (765) 477-7510. $50 per person.

Friday
- Whitley County Thomas R. Marshall Dinner featuring Sen. Vi Simpson, D-Ellettsville, and congressional candidate Tom Hayhurst, 5:30 p.m., Eagles Nest Event Center, off Ind. 205, Columbia City. Information or reservations: (260) 244-5146.

Saturday
- Latino Coalition Against Domestic and Sexual Violence rally, noon, Monument Circle. Kennedy is scheduled to attend.

National Republicans are sticking with the Pelosi angle, and it's reflected not just in their television ads:

On one side of the 7 1/2 -by-11-inch mailer card, a cluster of lovely white farm buildings is shown in a sea of verdant fields — with the Golden Gate Bridge superimposed over the whole scene.

White letters warn, "San Francisco values don't belong in Indiana."

On the flip side, there are murky-looking black-and-white headshots of Ellsworth, the Vanderburgh County sheriff, and Pelosi, the 22-year congresswoman and ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. The warnings continue:

"If elected to Congress, Brad Ellsworth could vote to put Democrats in control of Congress and could allow liberal San Francisco Democrat Nancy Pelosi to become the Speaker of the House."

Pelosi's "liberal agenda" is then listed with bullet points: "raise taxes, cut and run from Iraq, amnesty for illegals."

The mailer concludes: "HOOSIERS DON'T SUPPORT THE NATIONAL LIBERAL AGENDA. HOOSIERS SHOULDN'T SUPPORT BRAD ELLSWORTH."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/17/2006 04:21:00 PM

So Hostettler isn't completely crazy. He's at least got a sane view of the war in Iraq, says Dan Carpenter in today's Star:

Back to Hostettler, who shares the worries of many that a civil war may be the ironic legacy of a despot's removal from Iraq. "It is not America's obligation to stay there in perpetuity," he ominously adds. Perhaps the best we can do, he suggests, is witness a government elected by 51 percent of the voters, and leave it be.

Global perspective is no more a hallmark of Hostettler's repertoire than it is of Pence's. Both are unabashed Israeli triumphalists when it comes to the Middle East. Where they differ, as devout conservatives, may come down to when to declare victory in Iraq. One thing seems certain: If they keep winning elections, their brave president will be out of there long before they will.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-08 at 9/17/2006 04:16:00 PM

The Indianapolis Star reports that some Marion County Democrats want Carl Brizzi to return campaign cash:

This past week, the Marion County Democratic Party asked Brizzi to return money raised Tuesday night during a $100-per-person "beach party" at Landsharks, a Broad Ripple Avenue bar. Turns out police have responded to more than 150 incident reports at the bar since 1999, according to the Democrats.

They also pointed out that the bar's Web site touts go-go dancers and Thursday night "Striptease Aerobics" -- though the latter is an exercise class that bans both nudity and men.

Brizzi would not say how much was raised and declined to forgo the contributions.

...but the Kennedy camp says it "had nothing to do with the news release." Is this the Kennedy camp getting the party to make its most ridiculous accusations for them, so as to avoid embarassment, or do they seriously not talk to each other?

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Posted by Ryan Nees to MPC at 9/17/2006 04:05:00 PM

If their tables at last week's HobNob were any indication of competitiveness, Brian Bosma must be fairly confident:

Each legislative district in the Indianapolis area was assigned a single table, divided carefully down the middle by a strip of red ribbon. State Rep. David Orentlicher, D-Indianapolis, filled his side of the District 86 table (the left side, of course) with T-shirts, stickers and pamphlets.

On the right side, Republican Kathryn Densborn, trying to unseat Orentlicher, had hats, pamphlets, stickers and other items to hand out.

Pretty much every inch of the table was filled, reflecting the closeness of the race between them.

A couple of tables away, though, it was a different picture. Democrat Susan Fuldauer had filled her side of the District 88 table with campaign literature and talked about the race at length to anyone she could.

Her opponent?

House Speaker Brian C. Bosma, R-Indianapolis.

Bosma's side of the table was bare. Nothing. Zip. Nada.

He didn't need any buttons or pamphlets, he said.

"For this crowd," he said, referring to the Chamber of Commerce members, "they know who I am. They know where I stand. They don't need a slick item with my picture on it."

The Howey Political Report ranks Bosma's race as "Lean Bosma."

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-House at 9/17/2006 04:02:00 PM

Perhaps have wondered how the House GOP would ever fulfill their 30-minute BMV guarantee. Matt Tully found out:

Under the propaganda program, a branch visit starts when you reach the welcome desk and ends when you grab your wallet and hand over your cash.

So the 20 minutes I spent standing in line waiting to reach the welcome desk?
Never happened.

And that 10 minutes I spent waiting for my new license to be printed after I paid?
Never happened.

That's how 45 minutes became 15. And that's how the BMV can preposterously boast about such speedy service.

Welcome to the Indiana Bureau of Motor Vehicles -- a place where clocks came off the walls so we feeble-minded Hoosiers wouldn't realize how long we'd been in line. At the new and unimproved BMV, time is a very squishy thing.

The squishiness raises all kinds of issues.

For instance:

If the BMV is counting only one-third of my visit time, could I have paid only one-third of my license renewal fee? That would have saved me $14.

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Posted by Ryan Nees to IN-House at 9/17/2006 03:54:00 PM

The Journal Gazette finally got around to reporting the RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics numbers. And then TDW eagerly hopped on the bandwagon. But is it really news anymore? I reported the data over three days ago.

According to the Majority Watch poll conducted in the Hoosier districts last week, Democrat Joe Donnelly is favored by 52 percent of the people polled; Rep. Chris Chocola, R-2nd, is favored by 40 percent.

In southeast Indiana, 53 percent of voters said they would vote for Democrat Baron Hill; 42 percent said they would vote for Rep. Mike Sodrel, R-9th.

Democrat Brad Ellsworth is the choice of 51 percent of the voters in southwest Indiana. Rep. John Hostettler, R-8th, would get 45 percent of the vote if the election were today, according to the poll.

...

"Overall, the news is very bad for Republicans in Indiana," said Thomas Riehle, partner in RT Strategies, a bipartisan public-affairs opinion-polling firm. "The consistency of the problems facing Republicans across these districts says a lot about how the double dose of dissatisfaction with a Republican president and a Republican governor are having an impact further down the ballot."

Majority Watch is tracking the 30 most hotly contested races in the country. Based on the survey, the group said Democrats hold the advantage and momentum, but Republicans could maintain control of the House.

Majority Watch is being financed by RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics, a non-partisan survey company that has developed the telephone polling system.

...Lesley Stedman Weidenbener has some insight on the Governor's job approval ratings:

The GOP majority in the House helped implement the time change and approved the toll road lease. Those are issues that Democrats can use against them in a number of crucial districts, especially along the toll road in Northern Indiana and in counties along the time zone line, including southwestern Indiana.

In fact, Democrats have long been harping on those issues. But whether that strategy will be successful remains unclear.

A poll is just a snapshot, and the political mood can change quickly.

The WISH poll found that the economy is the most important issue in the fall campaigns. And that may be going in Daniels' favor.

Although job growth has been minimal during his first 20 months in office, the governor has recently enjoyed an uptick in economic development announcements -- big ones -- including news that Honda picked Indiana over Ohio for its new auto plant.

And now gas prices are falling dramatically, leaving more cash in the pockets of many Hoosiers.

If both trends continue, Hoosiers may start feeling a bit better about the economy, and their leaders.

Daniels spent part of last week traveling through the toll road counties, handing out framed checks to local governments -- their share of the lease proceeds.

He's also been making stops to announce highway projects paid for by his Major Moves transportation program, which included the lease.

And he's been talking a lot about economic development.

So the outcome this fall may depend on how well Daniels can sell his message, changing the minds of frustrated voters. Or it might come down to how well Republicans can distance themselves from the governor.

..Also, how do you like the redesign? If all goes well, it won't mess up too badly in Internet Explorer, but here's what it should look like. I'd recommend switching to Firefox if you'd like to get the most out of the site.

Video - WMV Part One | Video - WMV Part Two

Evan Bayh was on CNN's Late Edition this afternoon to discuss with Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) and host Wolf Blitzer the Geneva Convention, the war on terrorism, and Iraq.

Video - WMV

The Indiana Week in Review spent quite awhile on the WISH polling in IN-02, -08, and -09. (Though no mention of the Majority Watch polling, which I think is more significant.)

My apologies for the fairly lengthy clip, and 20mb file size.

Mike Sodrel garnered $50,000 today from a Barbara Bush fundraiser than he didn't even attend, according to this AP report.

More spectacular data from WISH... I don't know what's up with the poll questions not showing up. My blogging platform won't let me change the font color to black, for some reason. (agh) Either just highlight the text or directly link, here.

Error Margin: + or - 3.5%
Source: Research 2000

Error Margin: + or - 3.5%
Source: Research 2000